This article is part of our NBA Picks series.
Alex Barutha
Trae Young OVER 28.5 points (-118) at MIL -- FanDuel (2:01 PM CT)
Young is averaging 29.1 points in these playoffs despite playing elite defensive teams in New York and Philadelphia. I don't expect the Bucks to do anything drastically different to shut down Young to prevent him from continuing to put up 25-35 points regularly. Plus, the Bucks care mostly about shutting down shots at the rim, and they instead allow more shots from three and from floater range. Those two spots are where Young thrives the most.
Nick Whalen
Giannis Antetokounmpo UNDER 51.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-113) -- DraftKings (11:15 AM CT)
I'm fully on board with the idea that Giannis can take advantage of this Hawks defense, but this is a number he's hit only once so far in the playoffs, and that was in Game 7 against Brooklyn when he played 50 minutes. Giannis has double-doubles in all 11 postseason games, but his assists numbers fell by the wayside against the Nets, as he averaged only 3.6 per game and never had more than five in any game. That category will be the key if Giannis is to hit the over, but I'll follow the numbers and go under in Game 1.
Player parlay: Jrue Holiday OVER 18.0 points + Bucks win (+140) -- DraftKings
Save for a few key possessions in Game 7, Holiday had a downright ugly offensive series against the Nets. He shot well under 40 percent from the field and hit only 26 percent of his 6.6 three-point attempts per game. But if there's a silver lining, it's that the aggressiveness never wavered. Holiday took 44 shots -- including 19 threes -- in Games 6 and 7, when his struggles reached a zenith. If that mindset can carry over to this series, Holiday's track record implies that he could be set for a major bounceback.
Ken Crites
Over on John Collins grabbing 8.5 rebounds (-103) -- DraftKings (12:37 PM CT)
Every team shortens their bench during the playoffs. In the regular season, Collins played 29.3 minutes per game and grabbed 7.5 boards per contest. But in the playoffs, he's averaging 8.3 rebounds over 33.2 minutes per postseason matchup. He also has grabbed double-digit rebounds in five of his last six games. With both Giannis and Lopez pounding the glass, Atlanta will need Collins to help out Capella on the boards. It worked versus Philly.
