FanDuel has chosen to exclude the three early matchups while offering five games starting at 7:00 p.m. EST. Using RotoWire's trusted NBA projections, this breakdown highlights top-tier studs, mid-range targets, and value plays shaped by the latest injury reports and expected starting lineups. We're going to play a wait-and-see approach for a couple of teams, and I've outlined these spots in detail below.
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NBA Games Today
Spurs-Pelicans leads the way with the highest game total. Though I faded New Orleans elites, Trey Murphy's return and Zion Williamson's excellent play hold some value. The projected total for Clippers-Nets is disturbing and could keep us from making selections.
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NBA Injuries Today
For all the latest updates, visit RotoWire's NBA Injury News page and our comprehensive NBA Injury Report. Below are some of the most recent and relevant injuries for Sunday. Keep in mind that this is not a complete list. Use your best judgment when evaluating ongoing injury scenarios elsewhere on the slate.
MIL Giannis Antetokounmpo (calf) - OUT
MIL Kevin Porter (oblique) - OUT
MIL AJ Green (illness) - QUESTIONABLE
As the Bucks endure these absences, Gary Harris ($3,600) should emerge as a significant budget pivot while the usage could be higher if Green misses out. The team will also rely on Kyle Kuzma ($5,400) and Bobby Portis ($6,000) to step up.
TOR Immanuel Quickley (ankle) - QUESTIONABLE
TOR Collin Murray-Boyles (thumb) - QUESTIONABLE
TOR Ja'Kobe Walter (hip) - QUESTIONABLE
It'll be necessary to see how things shake out for the Raptors closer to game time as all three could return.
OKC Aaron Wiggins (hip) - QUESTIONABLE
OKC Jalen Williams (hamstring) - OUT
OKC Isaiah Hartenstein (calf) - OUT
OKC Ajay Mitchell (abdomen) - OUT
OKC Alex Caruso (groin) - OUT
Wiggins will likely start if he makes it back, but I wouldn't rule out Isaiah Joe's ($4,000) increased involvement. With Williams out, pivoting to Chet Holmgren ($8,300) as the team's second-best producer will be a popular strategy.
MIA Davion Mitchell (shoulder) - OUT
MIA Tyler Herro (ribs) - OUT
MIA Kel'el Ware (hamstring) - OUT
Pelle Larsson ($4,900) has earned a spot on the first unit, though his shaky floor invites some risk. Kasparas Jakucionis ($4,000) would receive another start if Mitchell is sidelined, and we should continue to see bench output from Jaime Jaquez ($6,500).
PHX Devin Booker (ankle) - OUT
PHX Jalen Green (hamstring) - QUESTIONABLE
Green could muck up the works if he returns as we'd otherwise have solid pivots in Collin Gillespie ($6,100) and Grayson Allen ($6,500). Check on Green's status and then act accordingly.
LAC Kawhi Leonard (knee/Illness) - QUESTIONABLE
The Clippers have gone 8-2 over the last 10 and should have no trouble against the Nets, so the matchup may convince the club to give Leonard the night off. James Harden's ($9,900) salary is relatively high, but remains a frequent consideration when his teammate can't go.
Elite Players
Victor Wembanyama ($11,600) and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($11,200) sit atop the player pool at five-figure salaries. SGA offers the more challenging task as numerous absences will call for his usual do-it-all heroics. Webanyama's matchup is much better, though the Pels are now back at full-strength. I won't sacrifice roster balance to go this high, but I would consider either one if we can offset with enough bargain picks.
We already mentioned Harden's potential, though Scottie Barnes ($9,500) offers some value in the $9k range against the shorthanded Thunder. The $8k tier includes the aforementioned Chet Holmgren, and he'll be close to universal exposure in my builds.
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Expected Chalk and Value Plays
Brandon Ingram, TOR ($7,900) @ OKC
Ingram is a cheaper and more potent way to attack this matchup as Jalen Williams' glaring absence presents huge problems for the Thunder at the wing. Oklahoma has the talent and depth to offset, but Ingram's role will be integral. RJ Barrett ($6,500) coming back should also somewhat help out Ingram, yet his current minute restriction will keep him off our list.
Stephon Castle, SAS ($7,500) vs. NOP
The salary similarity between Castle and De'Aaron Fox makes for a difficult choice when targeting the Spurs, but recent metrics indicate Castle's floor is more dependable while producing two solid stat lines against the Pelicans this season. Fox has only faced them only and endured a below-average total.
Andrew Wiggins, MIA ($6,300) @ PHX
Wiggins' numbers may not be flashy, yet he's been one of Miami's steadiest options and the matchup against the Devin Booker-less Suns looks pretty favorable. The Heat spread the wealth more than most teams so there will be times when Wiggins doesn't get his share, but his defensive intangibles usually offset a slightly lower scoring haul.
Dillon Brooks, PHX ($5,300) vs. MIA
Brooks' shot has been struggling of late, though Booker's absence should create more scoring opportunities for everyone. He can take over a game when dialed in, but I'd hold off and see what happens with Jalen Green before slotting him in.
Myles Turner, MIL ($5,300) vs. DAL
You could take other centers on Sunday, though Turner might have the best available matchup against the Mavs. Dallas is already familiar with life without Anthony Davis and may not have enough answers for Turner, who remains an excellent option despite the Bucks' struggles. He'll also be called upon to keep the team afloat as they plod along without Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Cason Wallace, OKC ($4,400) vs. TOR
I experimented with builds that included Victor Wembanyama and Shai Gilegous-Alexander where Wallace popped up in every one of them. The Thunder's replacements could be the key to getting both $10k-plus elites involved and some Milwaukee value sprinkled in. Wallace's excellent two-way play during the last two outings is convincing enough to use him in a variety of dual-elite setups that could also involve James Harden.
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