This article is part of our In-Season Strategy series.
After all the aberrant schedules in Week 5, the NBA settles into it's most balanced week of the season yet, with every team playing either three or four games. The Warriors are playing their fifth game of Week 5 on Sunday afternoon, but then they don't play again until Wednesday.
Four Games: UTA, TOR, SAS, SAC, POR, PHO, PHI, OKC, NYK, NO, MIL, MEM, LAC, DET, DEN, CLE, CHA, BOS, BKN, ATL
Three Games: WAS, ORL, MIN, MIA, LAL, IND, HOU, GSW, DAL, CHI
Because of the balanced nature of this week's schedule, we're going to have very few tough lineup decisions about our top players. Sure, Kawhi Leonard might sit one of the two games in the Raptors' back-to-back pair, but even still that means he gets three games to produce for the remainder of the week, which is going to be sufficient in all but the deepest of leagues.
So for this week, let's look at some consideration beyond the number of games on the schedule for our start/sit decisions:
Danny Green, Raptors
With Green we're looking at the last active roster spot in many leagues, but there's an opportunity to get some extra production out of him this week. Not only do the Raptors have four games this week, but two of those games are against the Hawks and Wizards, the two worst defenses in points allowed on a per game basis. Moreover, the Hawks game is on the second half of the Raptors' back-to-backs on
After all the aberrant schedules in Week 5, the NBA settles into it's most balanced week of the season yet, with every team playing either three or four games. The Warriors are playing their fifth game of Week 5 on Sunday afternoon, but then they don't play again until Wednesday.
Four Games: UTA, TOR, SAS, SAC, POR, PHO, PHI, OKC, NYK, NO, MIL, MEM, LAC, DET, DEN, CLE, CHA, BOS, BKN, ATL
Three Games: WAS, ORL, MIN, MIA, LAL, IND, HOU, GSW, DAL, CHI
Because of the balanced nature of this week's schedule, we're going to have very few tough lineup decisions about our top players. Sure, Kawhi Leonard might sit one of the two games in the Raptors' back-to-back pair, but even still that means he gets three games to produce for the remainder of the week, which is going to be sufficient in all but the deepest of leagues.
So for this week, let's look at some consideration beyond the number of games on the schedule for our start/sit decisions:
Danny Green, Raptors
With Green we're looking at the last active roster spot in many leagues, but there's an opportunity to get some extra production out of him this week. Not only do the Raptors have four games this week, but two of those games are against the Hawks and Wizards, the two worst defenses in points allowed on a per game basis. Moreover, the Hawks game is on the second half of the Raptors' back-to-backs on the road on Tuesday and Wednesday - if we're going to try to guess which night Leonard sits, this looks to be the ideal option. Green has been most productive when Leonard is out, including productive days on Nov. 4 against the Lakers and on Saturday against the Bulls.
Lonzo Ball, Lakers
Ball is a tricky one to evaluate. He's struggling to adjust to the new look Lakers and life with LeBron, and his FG% and FT% are still hideous. But with Rajon Rondo out with a broken hand, Ball is in line for a lot more minutes over the next three-to-five weeks. What he does with those minutes is going to be volatile - we should probably see more steals, assists and three-pointers, but he can still lay an egg as he did Saturday night against Orlando. He gets just three games this week, against the Cavs on the road, then home games against Utah and the same Magic squad that stifled him Saturday night.
Allen Crabbe, Nets
Crabbe is off to his worst start since his first two years in the NBA, when he was barely drawing double-digit minutes per game with Portland. There's a good reason why he was losing minutes to Caris LeVert, starting with a FG% that even a bricklayer would disavow, at 27.3%. Like Lonzo Ball, such a significant percentage of his shots come from beyond the arc that it drags down his overall percentage, and there's not much that comes with that. LeVert is out now, however, so Crabbe is starting, even though that's not yet translating into that many more minutes - 26, 20, and 30 respectively in his last three games, for a total of just one more minute than the previous three games, when LeVert was healthy. Still, there's an opportunity here for him, and the Nets have four games this week.
Juancho Hernangomez, Nuggets
Hernangomez is coming off of back-to-back big games while starting at small forward in place of the injured Will Barton and ahead of Torrey Craig. It helped his cause that Craig missed Saturday's game, giving Hernangomez 35 minutes to ply his wares. It's worth noting that the three-pointer has become more of his repertoire lately, having hit 10 of 18 attempts from beyond the arc over his last three games. The drawback to his game is that he needs his shots to fall to provide much value - he isn't going to bring much in the way of assists, steals or blocks to the table. The good news for this week is that among his four opponents, two (Minnesota, Orlando) are among the worst in defending against three-pointers. Hernangomez might not be a great long-term play yet, but the third-year Spaniard is a good look for this week.
Jaren Jackson, Grizzlies
Jackson had his best game of the season Friday night against the Kings, pouring in 27 points to go with six boards, four steals and two blocks. Like any rookie, however, there's a decent amount of volatility in his production, especially when one plays for a team with the slowest pace in the NBA in the Grizzlies. Moreover, JaMychal Green is returning Sunday for the Grizzlies from a jaw injury, and while Jackson has remained in the starting lineup, head coach J.B. Bickerstaff intends to play Green 24-27 minutes per game, and that's going to have to cut into Jackson's minutes some in the near term. Jackson, this year's fourth-overall pick out of Michigan State, is going to have plenty of games like he did Friday, but you might want to pump the brakes on him a little bit in the short-term, even with Memphis playing four games this week.
A note about "Pace" - you know who the slowest-paced team is in the NBA, can you name the quickest paced teams? (Using team nicknames - i.e. "Grizzlies" - which you know is incorrect here)
No fair scrolling to the bottom to get a spoiler for this quiz!
Jusuf Nurkic, Blazers
For those of you that rostered Nurkic in your leagues as I did in my home league, you had to hate seeing him get a mere 17 minutes on Opening Night, especially in a sweet matchup against the Lakers. While we've had to endure a couple of other bad nights at the end of October, lately our faith in him has been rewarded. He's had three consecutive double-doubles, albeit the last of the three nearly registering the near minimum to qualify in just 23 minutes. What I've noticed with him is how often the Blazers are quick to rest him whenever the game seems out of hand. However, he's been very efficient on a per-minute basis and gets four games this week, three on the road.
John Collins, Hawks
Collins finally made his 2018-19 debut Saturday night against the Pacers, after missing the first 15 games with an ankle injury. The Hawks have a four-game homestand this week, facing the Clippers, Raptors, Celtics and Hornets. Collins was limited to just 12 minutes on Saturday night, and might face a minutes restriction while coming off the bench early in the week, but he'll grab that starting four-spot soon enough. Working in his favor is that Alex Poythress (ankle) is doubtful for Monday's game against the Clippers. The Hawks play with the quickest pace in the NBA right now, though that's often helped their opponent more than themselves as they're getting outscored by 11.1 points per game. Still, that pace should provide more opportunities for Collins to pile on the counting stats as his minutes gradually increase. Teammate Taurean Prince (Achilles) is also doubtful for Monday, which could provide for opportunities for Collins as well.
Draymond Green, Warriors
Green was ruled out for the weekend with a lingering toe injury, and not in light of his outburst with teammate Kevin Durant and subsequent suspension earlier in the week. What is known is that Green's absence is indefinite, and that the injury was bothering him over a week ago and hurting his performance while he was in there. The Dubs get three games this week, but don't play until Wednesday, so it's really difficult to lock in Green if you have weekly moves. They're paper-thin right now without Green, Stephon Curry and Boogie Cousins, so the likes of Jordan Bell, Damian Jones and Kevon Looney stand to benefit from the added playing time if Green remains out.
