This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Basketball series.
Wednesday's slate of games offers a variety of hot players with tough matchups and underpriced players with favorable ones. Ahead we will look at cheap players with high potential, as well as high-priced safe plays. Also, we'll discuss a few high profile players you may want to avoid.
GUARD
Archie Goodwin, PHO at CLE ($12) - Goodwin's is averaging 23.3 points, 3.3 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 1.7 steals, 1.0 block and 1.7 triples per game in three starts. Phoenix's depleted roster is giving Goodwin free reign over the offense, and he is taking advantage of the opportunity. Brandon Knight is already confirmed as out for Wednesday's game, so Goodwin will get his fourth consecutive start. Although it is not the greatest matchup, it is hard to imagine Goodwin not exceeding his $12 value. He will likely be heavily owned, and normally it is nice to fade the public, but his expected production versus price is simply too good to avoid.
Isaiah Thomas, BOS vs DEN ($40) - Thomas is averaging 39.06 fantasy points per game over his last 10. To go along with his recent success, he will draw a favorable matchup Wednesday when Boston welcomes the Nuggets. Denver is giving up 103.8 points per game this year, and the position they are having the hardest time defending is the point guard slot. Opposing point guards are scoring the third-most fantasy points per game this season against Denver. Based on consistent quality performance, an advantageous matchup and other higher priced point guards with tougher matchups, Thomas is one of the safer bets Wednesday.
Guard to Avoid
James Harden, HOU at SAS ($53) - Harden has looked much more like the MVP-caliber player he was last season as opposed to the more mortal version we saw earlier this season. However, this would be the right time to fade the public due to a tough matchup against the Spurs. Timing wise, the Spurs will be looking to avenge the blowout suffered at Golden State on Monday, and they are simply the best defensive team the league. They are giving up nearly five fewer points than any other team in the league this year, while giving up the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing shooting guards. Given Harden's price, it may be wise to look elsewhere Wednesday.
FORWARD
Nerlens Noel, PHI at DET ($28) - Noel has been very up-and-down this season, making him a tough player to predict for daily formats. He has a favorable matchup Wednesday, however, especially due to Jahlil Okafor's confirmed absence. Without Okafor, the middle of the court will be open for Noel. He had 14 points, nine rebounds, one assist, three steals and four blocks against the Suns on Tuesday, and he is probably headed toward a similarly productive evening Wednesday without Okafor.
Paul Millsap, ATL vs LAC ($42) - Millsap is averaging 18.4 points, 8.8 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 1.9 steals, 1.4 blocks, and 0.8 threes in 33 minutes per game this season. He is also playing well recently, scoring at least 40 fantasy points in each of the last four games. In his last six, he is averaging 43.5 fantasy points per game. He also matches up at home against a Clippers team that is playing the second half of a road back-to-back. Millsap is the lowest priced forward in the top tier Wednesday, but he has the ability to outperform anyone ahead of him.
Forward to Avoid
Derrick Favors, UTA vs CHA ($35) - Favors finally made his long awaited return Monday after a 16-game absence due to back spasms. When the back spasms began acting up he was originally just day-to-day, but the missed games began accumulating and he was just not healthy enough to return. He played relatively well in his return Monday, posting 14 points, five rebounds and one assist in 20 minutes. Favors was playing like a stud prior to his injury, which has resulted in a fairly high price upon his return. He is not expected to take on his full workload for at least a few more games, so expect him to play somewhere around 20 minutes again. Due to lack of usage, he simply is not ready to be thrown in daily lineups yet.
CENTER
Boban Marjanovic, SAS vs HOU ($10) - The big man was an unknown commodity heading into the season, but he has grown somewhat of a cult following. His price is so low because of how little he plays when Tim Duncan is in the lineup, but he has outperformed all expectations in the games that Duncan sits out. Duncan has already been ruled out for Wednesday's game against Houston, resulting in Marjanovic becoming a very good value play. In the previous seven games Duncan has missed this year, Marjanovic is averaging 24.56 fantasy points per outing. That kind of production typically qualifies for a low to mid-$20 range, but Marjanovic will only cost the minimum Wednesday.
Center to Avoid
Andre Drummond, DET vs PHI ($44) - Drummond actually has a favorable matchup Wednesday versus Philadelphia, but his recent production makes it hard to add him to lineups. It has been head scratching really, after coming out of the gates looking like a monster this year, he has seemed very mortal recently. He's averaged 16.15 fantasy points his last two games, and for somebody priced at $44, that essentially eliminates your squad from any competition. It is unclear if the league is beginning to figure him out, if he is injured or if this is simply an aberration. The latter is the most likely scenario, but it would be wise to see him break out of his slump before adding him to your lineups. There are simply more reliable, cheaper options.
