Sweet 16 Preview: East Region

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EAST REGION SWEET 16

Site: Philadelphia
Tip-off: Friday

The ACC-Big Ten Challenge is a made-for-television event that seems to signify the start of college basketball in November. This week in the City of Brotherly Love, we'll have a postseason version of that spectacle as North Carolina and Notre Dame represent the ACC, and Wisconsin and Indiana represent the Big Ten. Two contrasting styles await, as the ACC teams would prefer to push tempo at all times, while their counterparts enjoy more half-court, grind-it-out styles. The team's combine for 31 Final Four appearances, with the Badgers reaching the last two, while the top-seeded Tar Heels are seeking their first Final Four since 2009.

No. 5 Indiana vs. No. 1 North Carolina

Key Matchup: Indiana's Yogi Ferrell vs. North Carolina guards Marcus Paige and Joel Berry. One of the stories that has gone somewhat untold throughout the year has been the Tar Heels' ability to play defense, particularly on the perimeter. During their five-game postseason winning streak, the Heels have allowed only one team (Pittsburgh) to shoot better than 44 percent overall or 33 percent from 3-point range. Paige, with some help from Berry, has successfully shut down Notre Dame's Demetrius Jackson (1 of 10) and Virginia's Malcom Brogdon (6 of 22) during this stretch. On the other side, Ferrell gives the Hoosiers arguably the most reliable scorer in this game, averaging 17.1 points this season and topping 20 in three of his last six. Ferrell gets his teammates involved as well, posting at least four assists in nine consecutive games. North Carolina did allow Providence's Kris Dunn, however, to go off in the second round for 29 points on 10-of-16 shooting. Ferrell likely needs a similar performance to keep the Hoosiers close.

North Carolina will Win IF: it plays hard. That sounds cliche and obvious, but it's something that's been questioned about this team all season. The Tar Heels played two great halves in the Dance thus far, outscoring Florida Gulf Coast and Providence by 30 points. But in the other two halves, they outscored the Friars and Eagles by five points total. North Carolina has proven it can win a preferred fast-paced contest, but also a slower, drag it out, half-court game. Opponents forcing their style on the Tar Heels is not an issue. Motivation at this stage of the season shouldn't be a question, and as long as the Heels bring their intensity, they're nearly impossible to beat.

Indiana will Win IF: a fourth scorer steps up. You expect Ferrell will get his, as will forward Troy Williams (13.0 points, 5.9 rebounds), and to a lesser extent, freshman center Thomas Bryant (11.9 points, 5.7 rebounds). But this is a team that ranks 11th nationally in scoring, dropping 82.3 points per game. The Heels have had the same five players score in double-figures in their first two games, but the Hoosiers saw their core three score 68.5 percent of their points in a second-round upset of Kentucky. Unless someone else concerns the Heels defensively, a lack of depth could hinder Indiana's chances.

Player to Watch: Indiana's Robert Johnson. Johnson could be that elusive fourth threat for the Hoosiers. He returned after missing four games due to a high ankle sprain, playing 24 minutes against Chattanooga, but saw just 10 minutes against Kentucky. Prior to the injury, Johnson was playing arguably the best he has in his two years in Bloomington, scoring in double-figures in four of six games while adding five assists twice and at least six rebounds twice. His recruitment came down to Indiana and North Carolina, so there could be a little extra bounce in his step, assuming the extra week off leaves him with a fully healed leg.

Prediction: North Carolina has lost six games this season, to five tournament teams and self-banned Louisville by a total of 22 points. Three of those teams are still playing (Notre Dame, Duke, Virginia) while a fourth (Northern Iowa) probably should be. This is a battle-tested team that has the depth to wear teams down on the interior offensively and on the perimeter defensively. A close, hard-fought game can be expected, and with Ferrell being the most reliable player out there, the Hoosiers have a shot. Justin Jackson gives the Heels another capable defender, and their length on the interior should bother Bryant and Williams. Expect the Heels' size and depth to wear down Indiana and for North Carolina to seize control across the final two media timeouts to advance to the Elite 8.

No. 7 Wisconsin vs. No. 6 Notre Dame

Key Matchup: Wisconsin's Nigel Hayes vs. Notre Dame's Zach Auguste. It's been a rough go for the Badgers forward recently, as Hayes has connected on only 7 of 42 shots over his last three games. He's too good a player to continue playing that poorly, and that he's continuing to take a plethora of shots seemingly bodes well for eventually shooting his way out of this slump. Auguste has been the exact opposite, missing only two of his 14 field-goal attempts in the tournament. He's also grabbed at least 10 boards in eight consecutive games. He gives the Irish a trusted option on the interior that could require multiple defenders to stop, which would leave the Irish with ample opportunities for open jump shots. The Badgers may need Hayes to match Auguste's production -- the question is how high that production will be.

Notre Dame will Win IF: it continues shooting at a high percentage. For two games, Notre Dame seemingly couldn't miss, shooting 56.9 percent against Stephen F. Austin and 58.1 percent against Michigan. The Badgers, meanwhile, held their first two opponents to 40.7 percent from the floor or less. While Notre Dame wants to go up and down, it's unlikely it will be able to sustain that style for 40 minutes against Wisconsin. That doesn't mean the Irish can't be efficient in the half court, however, and taking advantage of their open shots could force Wisconsin to speed things up when they have possession.

Wisconsin will Win IF: it crashes the offensive boards. In their opening-round game against Pittsburgh, the Badgers had a season-high 19 second-chance points on 12 offensive boards. Against Xavier, though, they managed only seven offensive rebounds. Notre Dame, meanwhile, allowed Stephen F. Austin to have more offensive rebounds (14) than defensive (11) while Michigan also managed to get 11 second chances. For a team that averages only 68.9 percent and shoots just 42.6 percent from the floor, any easy putbacks the Badgers can muster will be welcomed.

Player to Watch: Wisconsin's Bronson Koening. Koening's two 3-pointers in the final 13 seconds against Xavier are the reason the Badgers are still playing. But he was just 1 of 8 against Pittsburgh in the first round and has alternated single- and double-digit scoring outings in his last four contests after hitting at least 11 in his previous nine games. The Irish's lack of defense (172nd in adjusted defense per KenPom) should give Koening plenty of good looks, but Koening will also be instrumental in helping the Badgers enforce their half-court tempo on the Irish.

Prediction: The Irish entered the tournament losing four of their previous seven games, and beat an 11 and a 14 seed to reach this point. While they are fun to watch, the truth is they aren't a team that can get stops as needed and simply aren't playing at a tremendously high level. Arguably, they are here because they beat teams they were supposed to beat. Their lack of defense catches up with them while the Badgers' toughness allows them to control the tempo, and thus the game. Wisconsin marches on in another slugfest.