Bowl Game Pick 'Em: Confidence Pool Picks and Strategy

This article is part of our Bowl Game Pick 'Em series.

Bowl Season Confidence Pool Picks and Strategy for 2024-25

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'Tis the season to be jolly with college football on the loose in bowl action and bowl pools firing up to bring us some cheer during the holiday season. This article is for pools where you pick games straight up and place confidence points on the line, with the highest values (39) being placed on the games you are most confident you've picked a winner.

In general, you place your heavy-favorite winners near the top, and save your smaller point totals for toss-up contests and games in which you anticipate an underdog pulling off an upset. This way, it doesn't hurt you as much if the underdog loses or the toss-up turns up heads when you pick tails.

Given the change of format to the CFP for 2024-25, I'll simply be picking the first-round matchups and a champion at the tail end. I won my bowl pool using the picks from this article last season, so here's hoping the same can be true this year!

College Football Pool Tools

• College Football Odds
• SP+ Rating Differentials
• Bowl Game Staff Picks 
  • RotoWire writers made picks against the spread. May not be as helpful in a straight-up pick situation, but it could help you with decisions on some coin-flip games.
• College Football Picks 
  • We will post several game-specific betting articles throughout the bowl season breaking games down, which can be helpful if allowed to swap until kick. These are typically published around four hours before the opening kickoffs

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College Football Bowl Pool Confidence Picks

39) Mississippi (-14.5) vs. Duke

Ole Miss is the heaviest favorite of the bowl season, and for good reason. Duke will not only presumably be down Maalik Murphy (transfer portal) for the bowl game, but backup Grayson Loftis has also moved into the portal, likely leaving Henry Belin as the de facto starter for the Blue Devils. Belin has a little bit of experience under center, attempting 26 passes last season, but he'll face a stout Ole Miss front and a team that barely missed out on the CFP. Ole Miss seems likely to be down Tre Harris (NFL Draft prep) for the bowl game, but they have plenty of weapons to turn to in his stead. They have minimal production opting out of the game via the transfer portal or NFL Draft, aside from Harris. Ole Miss is also the third-best team in the country by SP+ rankings, while Duke sits 40th in that metric.

38) Army (-14) vs. Marshall

If you haven't watched Bryson Daily yet this season, you'll get an opportunity to catch him in action Saturday versus Navy before Army prepares for its bowl game versus Marshall. Assuming he escapes that contest healthy, the senior signal-caller is a massive difference-maker for the Black Knights, accumulating 29 rushing touchdowns and 1,474 rushing yards over just 11 games thus far. Army slots in 28th overall in the SP+ rankings from ESPN, while Marshall comes in down at 59th, marking a significant discrepancy between the two teams. Army's only loss this season came at the hands of CFP-bound Notre Dame, while Marshall has losses to Virginia Tech, Ohio State and Georgia Southern on its resume. Marshall also saw a mass exodus of talent to the transfer portal, including quarterbacks Braylon Braxton and Stone Earle, following head coach Charles Huff's departure from Southern Miss after the two sides failed to reach an agreement on a new contract, so it could be a rough one for what's left of the Thundering Herd.

37) Florida (-13) vs. Tulane

This is another case where the transfer portal bug has bitten the Green Wave at the most valuable position. Not only did starter Darian Mensah leave for Duke after a promising freshman season, but Kai Horton also placed his name in the portal. Former Oregon State quarterback Ty Thompson seemed the obvious choice to man the helm for the Green Wave, and he will start and play in the bowl before transferring himself. as did third-string quarterback Kai Horton. . Tulane will likely aim to lean on the ground game and Makhi Hughes as much as possible, but the Gators graded out as a top-20 run defense per PFF. It may be tough for the Green Wave to get the ball moving in this one, and DJ Lagway and company have enough weapons to get the job done on offense.

36)  Alabama (-10.5) vs. Michigan

The Crimson Tide lose a couple of wideouts, Kobe Prentice and Kendrick Law, for the bowl game, with the pair having entered the transfer portal along with linebacker Keanu Koht. That said, Michigan may be down a wideout as well in Tyler Morris, who also placed his name in the portal. While Alabama was unable to secure its spot in the CFP, the team hasn't disbanded like Florida State did last postseason, and this is a crew that slots in fifth in SP+ rankings despite its three losses. Michigan did pull off an unexpected upset of the Buckeyes in Columbus on the final week of the regular season, but I don't believe they'll have the quarterback play necessary to keep up in this contest. The SP+ rating differential on this game is also the second-biggest (16.8 in favor of Bama) on the slate, seemingly indicating this should be a comfortable one for the Tide.

35)  South Carolina (-10.5) vs. Illinois

The Gamecocks are another squad that proved to be among the most impressive squads down the stretch, picking off ACC champs Clemson in Week 14 on the road after knocking off Missouri in Week 12. Unsurprisingly, that run has earned them the respect of a double-digit line against the Fighting Illini. Illinois, on the other hand, was throttled by Oregon to close out the 2024 regular season, and the Illini have just one win over an SP+ top-40 team (home against Michigan). South Carolina, on the other hand, has three and each of its losses came against teams ranked in the top 16 of SP+.

34) Texas (-11) vs. Clemson

I hate to bet against Dabo in a spot like this, but Texas is just too good on both sides of the ball. The only X-factor I could see in the outcome changing here would be special teams, where the Longhorns grade out 115h nationally in SP+. Still, the overall ratings heavily favor Texas as the sixth-biggest SP+ differential in bowl season, and the spread from Vegas certainly backs Texas as well. Clemson showed some gumption in the ACC Championship Game to get this far, but Texas played Georgia to overtime in the SEC Championship Game despite Quinn Ewers' ankles likely operating at less than 100 percent. I imagine he'll be healthier with another couple of weeks to rest up under his belt, and I don't think Clemson has the level of skill-position players needed to best Texas' smothering defense.

33) Texas State (-10) vs. North Texas

There will be some significant absences from both sides of the ball here, with the most notable ones being Chandler Morris and DT Sheffield for North Texas and Ismail Mahdi for Texas State, who all have entered the transfer portal. Another couple of note for the Bobcats are Joshua Eaton and Dominique Ratcliffe on the defensive side, but the loss of Morris under center (assuming he doesn't play) leaves the Mean Green with unproven options under center for the bowl game. Drew Mestemaker is the only other signal-caller to record a passing attempt this year, so it appears the true freshman may be the top candidate to get the starting nod in the bowl game if Morris is out. He'll also presumably be down a top weapon in Sheffield, not to mention tight end Oscar Hammond entered the portal as well, so he won't have a full complement of options to turn to. Thus, I'll back Jordan McCloud, who is leading an experienced passing attack, even if he'll be without Mahdi in the backfield.

32)  Pittsburgh (-9.5) vs. Toledo

The Panthers have lost a handful of players in the portal of note, including Nate Yarnell and Daejuan Reynolds on offense and Nahki Johnson on defense, but Eli Holstein will have had an extended period to heal up, and the spread would seemingly suggest Vegas believes he'll playing the bowl game. On top of that, everything runs through star back Desmond Reid on offense, and there is no indication the senior plans to sit out the bowl game. Pitt checks in 48th with a 6.1 SP+ rating despite some struggles under center with Holstein ailing, and even a bit before that with Holstein, but Toledo checks in 83rd in the metric with a -3.9 SP+ rating, and Vegas really likes the Panthers as well. I'm on board.

31)  James Madison (-7.5) vs. Western Kentucky

Here's another contest where a mass exodus of players affects one team more than the other. Whereas James Madison experienced a massive upheaval last offseason with Curt Cignetti going to Indiana, it's Western Kentucky experiencing some portal overturn this time around, with quarterbacks Caden Veltkamp and TJ Finley both entering along with a host of others, including star wideout Easton Messer, who racked up 52 grabs for 725 yards and four touchdowns this season. The Dukes had a significant SP+ advantage for those game even before the departure, and with most of the team's key pieces seemingly intact for the bowl game, I'm comfortable backing them with a fairly high confidence.

30) South Alabama (-7) vs. Western Michigan

Gio Lopez announced on X on Wednesday that he has no intention of leaving the Jaguars ahead of the 2025 season. That in and of itself is a win for South Alabama, but he also was dinged up in the regular-season finale, so it will be worth keeping an eye out for confirmation of his status ahead of Saturday's bowl game, but Vegas' line seems to suggest they think he'll play. The team will be without budding running back Fluff Bothwell, who entered the transfer portal following his freshman campaign. Fortunately, the Jaguars boast plenty of depth in the backfield, and Kentrel Bullock is a more than capable option to replace him. South Alabama also does lose Jordan Scruggs in the defensive backfield, but Western Michigan is also down a handful of bodies via transfer portal, including Corey Walker, who compiled 38 tackles and five sacks during 2024, and a handful of others as well. the Jags are a touchdown favorite here and one of the biggest SP+ favorites as well, so I see no reason to bypass it.

29) TCU (-12.5) vs. Louisiana

I've struggled to find a place to put this game, but I'll settle for here. This game opened at a line of -8.5 and has grown four points since then. That's likely due, in part, to the uncertainty surrounding the health of Chandler Fields, who was carted off during the Sun Belt Championship Game. Ben Wooldridge, the starter to begin 2024, has been sidelined since Week 12 but also could have a chance to return for the bowl game. Even so, tight end Terrance Carter, running back Dre'lyn Washington and wide receiver Harvey Broussard have all entered the transfer portal since the conclusion of the regular season.  All three were significant contributors for the Ragin' Cajuns in 2024, and their losses won't go unnoticed on offense. Jamel Johnson will be missing from TCU's secondary, which is notable, but the Horned Frogs should have enough in the tank to pull this one out despite the second-smallest SP+ rating differential (1.1 points in favor of TCU) on the slate.

28) Bowling Green (-6.5) vs. Arkansas State

Bowling Green opened as 6.5-point favorites, and the line hasn't moved a ton, though it has bumped up to seven at BetMGM, and the others seem to be trending in that direction as well. They also have SP+ differential highly on their side, grading out 10.7 rating points better than Arkansas State, good for the seventh-biggest differential. However, that's where the favoritism ends. The Falcons lost star linebacker Joesph Sipp to the transfer portal and star running back Terion Stewart before that, marking two major hits to the roster. On top of that, sophomore corner Edward Rhambo is trying his hand at the portal. Arkansas State's most significant entry comes from defensive end Jayden Jones, who racked up 25 tackles and four sacks prior to sitting out the last four games. Still, Bowling Green played both Penn State and Texas A&M close (one-score games) to open the year and lost only two games within conference play. Arkansas State got demolished by Iowa State and lost to Michigan by 10 in non-conference play, but they also lost two of their last four conference games. As long as star tight end Harold Fannin plays, I'm backing the Falcons. He could be playing Sundays next fall if he decides to turn pro.

27) Syracuse (-6.5) vs. Washington State

And here we go back to the mass departures. According to a report from The Lewiston Tribune, 15 Cougars, including six starters, have already entered the transfer portal, and starting quarterback John Mateer has yet to make a decision on whether he will play the bowl game. If he elects to sit out, look for this line to shift further in favor of the Orange. As it stands, Kris Hutson, Wayshwanw Parker, Ethan O'Connor, Ansel Din-Mbuh, Jackson Lataimua, and Khalil Laufau have all already entered the transfer portal. For the most part, the Orange's roster remains intact for the bowl game, and the Orange on the base level have the SP+ rating this year and a resume that includes wins over Georgia Tech, UNLV, Miami and Virginia Tech, who all sport higher SP+ ratings than Washington State. The Cougars, on the other hand, have played largely a Mountain West Conference schedule and aren't nearly as battle-tested. Give me the Orange here.

26)  Oklahoma (-8.5) vs. Navy

And here we have another quarterback out the door in Jackson Arnold, who announced he would enter the transfer portal following the end of the regular season. It's not too surprising, considering he lost his starting job during the season before earning it back later on. He'll presumably be unavailable for the bowl game, meaning Michael Hawkins will likely draw the start under center for the Sooners. Nic Anderson, Jalil Farooq and Nic Anderson have also entered the transfer portal, but the Sooners have played most of the year without those wideouts anyway, so that should be baked into their current status as a squad. The contribution backfield remains largely intact, but Bauer Sharp is gone at the tight end position. Even with all that, Navy ranks just 61st in SP+, whereas Oklahoma sits 31st and has a marquee win on its resume against Alabama. I'll take my chances with the Sooners here, with Navy having lost two of its last four games and possibly three of the last five if they fall to Army on Saturday.

25)  UTSA (-7) vs. Coastal Carolina

UTSA was only a slight favorite via SP+ going into the matchup, but when we add in the deluge of Coastal players entering the portal, the scales should tip further in the direction of the Roadrunners. Starting quarterback Ethan Vasko has entered the portal for the Chanticleers, as has backup Noah Kim. It's unclear if either intends to play at all in the bowl game, which could leave Tad Hudson was pictured in a recent practice post featured by the team, which may suggest he'll get the nod. Forgive me, but I'll again take my chances with a veteran-laden squad at UTSA, even with Kevorian Barnes in the portal and Robert Henry potentially out after declaring for the 2025 NFL Draft. The Roadrunners still have a lethal passing attack, and Brandon High filled in capably in Week 14 to the tune of 16 carries for 61 yards and a pair of scores against a tough Army defense. Coastal also saw star pass rusher Clev Lubin and his 9.5 sacks and 43 tackles enter the transfer portal, a major hit for them, plus cornerback Matthew McDoom entered, leaving a hole in the back end. Look for UTSA to exploit those newfound weaknesses.

24)  Notre Dame (-7.5) vs. Indiana

Both squads here should be close to full strength at least, and that is something that's become rare when it comes to bowl season. Both of these teams have passed the majority of the tests they should have passed (Notre Dame's hiccup against NIU is a puzzler), but Indiana's schedule has been substandard this season. Their best win thus far comes over Michigan, who ranks 34th in SP+, and that was a five-point squeaker on home turf the week before the Hoosiers got lit up by Ohio State. The Fighting Irish, on the other hand, have wins over Texas A&M (14th), Louisville (18th), USC (25th) and Army (28th), all of of whom rank higher than Michigan. I just feel the Fighting Irish's body of work demonstrates they are the better of the two teams, though hats off to Indiana for taking care of business with the schedule they had.

23)  Kansas State (-7) vs. Rutgers

For once, we have a non-CFP game with minimal absences for either school at this point. Given that, we're looking at a Kansas State squad that's gone toe-to-toe with the better teams in the Big 12 this season, besting Colorado and Kansas earlier in the year, against a Scarlet Knights team that relies heavily on the run game Well, the Wildcats allow just just 3.47 yards per carry and 114.9 rushing yards per game on the year, both inside the top 25 nationally. Something will have to give here, as the Scarlet Knights run the ball 55.06 percent of the time, 43rd most in FBS. I feel like the Wildcats will grab a lead here at some point and Rutgers won't have the passing chops necessary to keep pace. I don't feel quite as good about it as SP+, which has the Wildcats with the 13th-best SP+ differential. I'll settle them in here and take my chances. Avery Johnson and Co. can get the job done.

22)  Penn State (-8.5) vs. SMU

Penn State had some close calls along the way this season, but the team's lone blemishes to the record came in close losses to Ohio State and Oregon, two other teams in the CFP. Other than that, The Nittany Lions sport a spotless record. That said, the team's best win is over Illinois, the 36th-ranked team in SP+. SMU does have one better win on its resume in the form of Louisville (18th in SP+), but they also have losses to Clemson (17th SP+) and BYU (19th SP+). Penn State (9th SP+) is the first top-10 team they will have faced all year, and the Nittany Lions have arguably the offense to match SMU with a better defense. They've played the best of the best closely already this year, so I think they pull this first-round matchup out. Home field is certainly something that benefits CFP teams in the first round that other bowl participants will not enjoy, and that's something that needs to be factored in as well. 

21)  Ohio State (-7.5) vs. Tennessee

The Buckeyes are the SP+ belles of the ball, ranking atop the charts with a 29.1 SP+ rating on the year, just above Oregon. If were being real, the Buckeyes may have been the second-favorites to claim the national title had they not slipped up against Michigan on home turf in Week 14. However, do I expect them to lose a playoff game on home turf at the Horseshoe? No, and that needs to be stressed here. I couldn't find a more recent stat than 2021, but from 2000-21, the Buckeyes held a 70-5 record at home, among the best in the country. The Vols have struggled a bit more on the road as well, averaging 43.7 points per game on home turf compared to just 28.6 per game on the road. I don't think they reach that mark here and will fall short in Columbus.

20)  Georgia Southern (-6) vs. Sam Houston

And we're back into the transfer portal weeds here. This time, it's the Bearkats who've been hit in the transfer portal, with Caleb Weaver and Isaiah Cash leaving significant gaps in the secondary, Trey Fields in the linebacking corps, Simeon Evans leaving the team down a significant wide receiver option and Chris Murray absent along the defensive line. That's a number of notable names likely absent for the bowl game, while Georgia Southern's departures are at a minimum. Even before the departures, the Eagles held a comfortable edge on the SP+ side. Add those in, and this seems like it should be a comfortable margin for this game.

19)  North Carolina (-4) vs. UConn

We're starting to get into the weeds of the confidence pools, where one bad bounce can turn the game one way or another. The Tar Heels' regular season ended on a sour note with back-to-back losses to finish just 6-6, but they still played a number of close games against tough opponents in the losses, including a one-point loss to Duke and a 10-point loss to Pitt. and the team sports a win over Minnesota (35th SP+). The Huskies' best win of the year came against Buffalo (96th SP+), so they don't have a ton to write home about. I think this game could be reasonably close, as the spread suggests, but I don't think the Huskies have what it takes to pull out the upset here, having lost to each of their four power-conference opponents this season.

18)  Miami (-3.5) vs. Iowa State

It will be worth keeping your ear to the ground for news any possible opt-out news from Hurricanes players in the Pop-Tarts Bowl. As it stands, there's been no word that Cam Ward or Xavier Restrepo intends to sit out the contest. If they are confirmed to be playing at some point before the bowl game, I wouldn't mind moving this Miami team up into possibly the mid-20s, as the Hurricanes are among the biggest SP+ favorites (fifth-biggest) of the bowl season, and the Cyclones appear set to be down Jacob Ellis in the linebacking corps after he entered the transfer portal. We saw just a week ago what Arizona State did to the Cyclones, and this Miami team sports arguably the best offense in college football. If they're all in tow for the bowl game and you can adjust your confidence picks after games kick off, then I'd be comfortable moving them a margin up the board. If we see Ward and Restrepo opt out, this could slide further down the list for me. For now, I'll just settle here and hope they decide to play to get some value from it if they do and not be burned too badly if they sit.

17)  North Carolina State (NC State) (-5.5) vs. East Carolina

The Wolfpack lost to Duke by 10 and Georgia Tech by one before ending the regular season on a high note by taking down in-state rival North Carolina in the regular-season finale to attain bowl eligibility, in Chapel Hill, no less. Sure, the Wolfpack will be down star wideout KC Concepcion after his entry in the transfer portal, but ECU has lost second-leading tackler Zakye Barker, second-leading wideout Chase Sowell, and starting defensive back Isaiah Brown-Murray to the portal. NC State's offense relied less on Concepcion in 2024 than it had in previous seasons, and the Wolfpack's rushing attack may be able to take advantage of Barker missing from the linebacking crew. SP+ liked the Wolfpack here in a vacuum, and I think the transfer portal entries have still hurt the Pirates more.

16)  Memphis (-3) vs. West Virginia

While Memphis has earned a 10-2 record on the season, there haven't been a ton of spectacular wins on the Tigers' resume. The best one to date was almost certainly a win over Tulane (ranked 41 SP+) in the regular-season finale. However, West Virginia's resume is arguably less impressive. Of their five conference wins in 2024, none came against teams who will be playing in a bowl game this season, and the Mountaineers' only non-conference win came against FCS Albany. So, Memphis' resume looks a little rosier in comparison. On top of that, West Virginia will likely be without second-leading tackler Josiah Trotter (93 tackles), who entered the transfer portal. That's a big hole to fill in a defense that has already struggled this year.

15) Louisville (-4) vs. Washington

The recent news of Tyler Shough opting out of the bowl game has caused this line to shift from 5.5 down to 4 or 3.5 at most books. While my initial reaction was to jump ship on the Cardinals, after some contemplation, I'm coming back around to the side of the Cardinals. It will presumably be Harrison Bailey at the helm for the bowl game. He has a little bit of experience under center from his time at UNLV and has completed each of his eight pass attempts this season. On top of that, nearly all of his important weapons in the backfield and the passing attack will be at his disposal. SP+ had the Cardinals as the fourth-highest rating differential over Washington, and I'm fairly confident Jeff Brohm can coach up Bailey enough in the interim to get this win.

14) Texas A&M (-2.5) vs. USC

The Aggies' regular season ended with a trio of rough losses at the hands of South Carolina, Auburn in multiple overtimes and with a renewed in-state rivalry against the Longhorns going the way of Burnt Orange. So, things don't look the prettiest heading into bowl season, but the Aggies are a healthy favorite in this game by SP+ standards. They also have most of their contributing weapons available for the bowl game, while USC has lost some depth out wide and in the backfield, with Duce Robinson, Kyron Hudson, and Quinten Joyner all entering the transfer portal. The Trojans typically like to run deep at wide receiver, and they may not be able to do that as much in the Las Vegas Bowl. The Aggies may also have a secret weapon in tow if Rueben Owens, who handled three carries against Texas, can give them additional work. Also, our staff (myself included) unanimously picked the Aggies to cover the 2.5-point spread in our annual picks article linked above.

13)  Arkansas (-2.5) vs. Texas Tech

There are a surprising number of games nearing coin-flip territory this year, and the Razorbacks and Red Raiders are no exception. Arkansas has lost a handful of players via the transfer portal, most notably TJ Metcalf, Brad Spence, Luke Hasz and Isaiah Sategna, but this is a team that's picked up wins over Auburn and a CFP team in Tennessee at home while keeping it close against top-25 squads in Texas A&M (four points on the road), Texas (10 points) and Missouri (seven points on the road). To its credit, Texas Tech also has a win over a CFP team in Arizona State and another top-25 win against Iowa State. That said, the win against the Sun Devils was in September and Iowa State showed some cracks down the stretch. I feel good enough about the Hogs to give them my backing, though things are going to get hairy the rest of the way here with a lot of close matchups on this year's bowl slate.

12) LSU (-1.5) vs. Baylor

This is a contest where SP+ says one thing while line movement says another. The game opened with LSU as a three-point favorite, but it has since shrunk to 1.5, though the line does suggest a bump back to two in the future is plausible. SP+ likes the Tigers a bit more than that, ranking mid-pack in terms of SP+ differential versus the Bears. However, the Bears have been playing good ball of late, ending the regular season on a six-game win streak. While those opponents weren't particularly impressive, Baylor has also had some close losses against BYU and Colorado that work in their favor. LSU got back on track late with wins over Oklahoma and Vanderbilt to close the season after a trio of losses to tough opponents prior to that. They still have wins over Ole Miss (3rd SP+), South Carolina (13th SP+), Oklahoma (31st SP+) and Arkansas (27th SP+) that all rank above Baylor in the SP+ rankings, so I'll side with the battle-tested squad.

11) Northern Illinois (-3) vs. Fresno State

What's new? Another battle of teams with a bevy of players in the transfer portal. There are to many to name on each side, including both teams' starting quarterbacks, but who isn't in the transfer portal is Antario Brown. NIU will also be turning to quarterback in John Holst, who has started multiple games this season when Ethan Hampton was sidelined. Mikey Keene's replacement under center will have no starting experience at the college level. This line has shifted 1.5 points in favor of the Huskies since it opened, and SP+ prefers them on a base level as well.

10) Miami (OH) (-3) vs. Colorado State

Here's another game in which we've seen the line nudge up to 2.5 or 3 after opening at 1.5. Both squads have several high-impact receivers out for the bowl game (via transfer portal and injury, in the case of Tory Horton), while Colorado State is also down a couple of notable defensive players. The SP+ also favors the Redhawks slightly, so the combination of the factors gives me enough confidence to place them here ahead of some of my upset bids coming further down the list.

9) San Jose State (-3) vs. South Florida

SP+ likes USF's body of work better than what we've seen from the Spartans to date, but Vegas has been backing the Spartans a bit since the line opened at -2.5, inching it up half a point to get it to -3 at many of the books. I tend to fall on the side of the Spartans as well, if, for nothing else, the one-man show that has been Nick Nash this year. He's got 180 targets to his name so far this year, and he does have a 20-target game on the books versus Washington State, so a 200-target season isn't impossible. Both sides have a couple of players missing, so I'm following Vegas' lead on this one.

8) Nebraska (-2.5) vs. Boston College 

Nebraska has a slight edge here on the SP+ side, though the Huskers will be down Mikal Gbayor for the bowl game after he entered the transfer portal. Jerand Bradley and Jaedn Skeete both missed the regular-season finale for the Eagles, so their statuses will be worth monitoring as the game approaches, though they aren't huge factors in the grand scheme. This line opened at Huskers -2.5 and has stuck there. I don't have a great feel for it, hence it's placement here among the lower confidence picks.

7) UNLV (+2.5) vs. California

Vegas really doesn't know quite where to land on this game, with the spread ranging from 3 down to 1.5 at various books. It makes sense with dueling storylines here. California lost its starting quarterback to the transfer portal, and UNLV lost its head coach to Purdue. Which one is more important in a one-game sample size? I guess we'll find out. In my "book," I'll take my chances with what remains of the UNLV staff for the bowl game and the Hajj-Malik Williams-Ricky White combo over a Cal team turning to Morris. Though, of note, Morris is highly experienced from his time at North Texas, so I wouldn't blame you for going the other direction. Another name of note in the portal is Nyziah Hunter, who turned in 40 grabs for 578 yards and five touchdowns for the Golden Bears this season, leaving the team down some additional weaponry in the passing attack.

6) Ohio (-2.5) vs. Jacksonville State

Rich Rod has signed up for the gig at West Virginia earlier this week, making it a battle of the offensive-coordinators-serving-as-interim-head-coaches. However, Jacksonville State has seen a couple of defensive stalwarts depart in Zechariah Poyser and Reginald Hughes, while Ohio's team has remained intact at this point. This game is the closest of all of the bowls on the SP+ front, with the Bobcats receiving a slight edge, and Vegas is also on the side of the MAC school. That's enough going in the direction for me to give my endorsement for the Bobcats.

5) Vanderbilt (+2.5) vs. Georgia Tech

I'll take another swing here with Vandy, a team that has played its best football in the biggest games. While Georgia Tech isn't a ranked opponent, a bowl game is still a big stage, and I think the 'Dores will be up to the task. SP+ prefers Vandy in a vacuum, and Georgia Tech has the most high-profile absences from the game in wideout Eric Singleton and cornerback Taye Seymore, who are both in the transfer portal. Things could fall right here for Vanderbilt to earn its first bowl win since 2013.

4)  Iowa (+3.5) vs. Missouri

This game loses some of its luster when you have two NFL-caliber players opting out in Kaleb Johnson on the side of the Hawkeyes and Luther Burden for the Tigers. While I think Iowa's offense typically runs a bit more through Johnson than the Tigers ran through Burden, the Hawkeyes generally have good enough blocking up front to make their tailbacks look solid, whoever it may be. SP+ here favored the Hawkeyes straight up, and aside from those two, there aren't many key starters slated to miss the game on either side. Iowa has historically won by having a good defense and special teams, and the same holds true in 2024. Both units rank sixth-best via SP+, while Missouri's special teams sits 107th, which could be a key factor in what seems destined to be a low-scoring affair. I'll take the Hawkeyes in a minor upset, even without their star tailback.

3)  Buffalo (+2.5) vs. Liberty

Call this one a hunch more than anything, but I'm going both against the line and what SP+ likes for this game. The main reason? Star quarterback Kaidon Salter entered the transfer portal. The quarterback position is always the toughest to replace, and the Flames will likely turn to Ryan Burger, who has attempted just 24 passes in three college seasons, including seven this year. On the other side, C.J. Ogbonna has impressed in his first season under center, completing 57.1 percent of his passes for 2,244 yards and a 19:5 TD:INT ratio while also running for 314 yards and eight scores. ESPN College FPI indicates the Flames had arguably the easiest strength of schedule in all of FBS in 2024 and finished 8-3, while Buffalo made it to 8-4 on a somewhat more difficult schedule. 

2)  BYU (+3) vs. Colorado

I don't recall a time when I've seen conference opponents face each other in bowl season, but that's where we are in an age with power conferences growing as large as they have. The odds for this game have shifted minimally in favor of the Buffs, and it's understandable why in what will presumably be the last collegiate games for both Heisman-hopeful Travis Hunter and star quarterback Shedeur Sanders. They are projected as the first two off the 2025 NFL Draft boards in many mocks, so this would seem to be a storybook ending to their respective careers. But, I don't think it's going to play out that way. The Cougs have a lot of bite to them and have 

1)  Virginia Tech (+5.5) vs. Minnesota

(Unrelated photo, but this is me at this point)

Full disclosure: I'm also from Wisconsin, but I try not to let my anti-Gopher bias cloud my judgment (see my Iowa pick above). While I'm somewhat a sucker for SP+ and the fact that the metric is high on Virginia Tech, I myself felt good about this Virginia Tech team to win the ACC this season, and even put a bet on that when I was in Las Vegas over the summer. That went up in flames early, but we've seen this Hokies team play numerous good teams close. Their worst loss of the season is arguably losing to Vanderbilt by a touchdown on the road or the field-goal loss to Rutgers at home, but Virginia Tech hasn't lost to an opponent outside the top 51 in SP+, and each of those losses came by a touchdown or less other than Clemson (10 points). That said, the team's best wins came over Georgia Tech, Boston College, and Marshall, who are clumped 57-59 in SP+ rankings. The Hokies will be down a couple of pieces on the back end of the defense in Mansoor Delane and Mose Phillips, who both entered the transfer portal, but this is just a team with enough talent that I can't quit.