College Football Picks: CFB Week 9 Odds, Picks, Predictions and Best Bets

Written by

Chris Bennett

Jeff Edgerton

Greg Vara

Published on October 24, 2024

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Chris' Picks

The books giveth, and the books taketh away. What an absolutely pathetic Week 8 I had. Or at least I thought I had...UConn was close, and Missouri closed as a winner, though I had it posted as a push. Thanks for nothing, Iowa and Nebraska. We march on with no rhythm or sustained success, but I'll keep firing darts or spitballs and see what sticks.

For the record, Greg, Jeff, and I don't speak at all; these picks are completely independent. I find it interesting we were all on the Miami/Louisville over successfully. Maybe we all have similar thoughts multiple times this week and get this thing going.

Georgia Tech (+10.5) at Virginia Tech

This opened at (-7.5) and has steadily risen all week, and I don't understand it. I'm fully aware Haynes King may not play, and backup Zach Pyron isn't a threat to win this game with his arm. But Lane Stadium isn't the home field it used to be and has routinely been empty by halftime, even in competitive games this season. Virginia Tech can't stop the run, ranking 100th against it, which gives the Jackets a baseline offensively through Jamal Haynes. Georgia Tech is elite against the run, ranking 27th, suggesting Bhayshul Tuten can be slowed, and Kyron Drones has to win it with his arm. I don't expect the Jackets to win, but getting over 10 points is very appealing. The caveat here is I put my money where my mouth is and bet everything listed in this column. I also live in Virginia and can't bet on state schools. A rare spot where I can't actually follow through.

Mississippi State (+6.5) vs. Arkansas

This one opened at (+8) and is trending downward, so finding the full touchdown without an alt-line may be challenging. I just don't trust Arkansas with this many points on the road. They're a mediocre pass defense (70th), and the Bulldogs appear to have found something with freshman QB Michael Van Buren, who's thrown six touchdowns against two interceptions over the last two weeks. At some point, Mississippi State is going to win another game, and it very well could be here. I'm 100 percent an advocate of moving this up over a touchdown, given the line movement. (+7.5) is -144 at DraftKings as of Tuesday evening; not an elite return, but winning and cashing is all that matters.

BYU (+2.5) at UCF

What am I missing here? I don't care about the travel east and the early-ish start. BYU is undefeated, and UCF has lost four straight, yet the line has shifted from the Cougars being favored by one to being nearly two-point underdogs. UCF scored 35 points last week despite throwing for just 62 yards. If they're going to be that one-dimensional, I trust a veteran BYU side to stuff the run and keep trucking on with another win. This could absolutely be a trap spread, but I'm biting.

Texas A&M (-2.5) vs. LSU

An absolutely huge SEC showdown here as both teams are undefeated, and the winner has a clear inside track to the SEC Championship game and a potential playoff bid. I'm backing the Aggies simply because they're at home and have the better defense. Don't put any stock in their massive win over Missouri, as the ball bounced their way to perfection on nearly every play. But Conner Weigman being under center for them gives the offense a completely different and balanced look. He's completed 70.2 percent of his passes in two games since returning from injury, averaging 10.5 ypa. This will be back and forth, but I like the Aggies to score last.

SMU (-11.5) at Duke

This is a line that's moving against us as the week has progressed, and I'd sure love it to be more like (-9.5), but I'm taking the Mustangs regardless. Duke hasn't played anyone: Elon, Northwestern, UConn, MTSU, UNC, Georgia Tech (loss), and Florida State. I'm not buying a lick of their defensive stats other than their struggles against the run, ranking 79th in ypg allowed. Despite SMU being known as high-flying, they are run first, ranking 28th in rushing ypg. Duke is 84th in points scored and has topped 26 points just once all season. The Mustangs will score here, and Duke can't match that. SMU is salty defensively, too. ranking 17th against the run and 35th in points allowed.

Last week: 1-3-1; season: 18-20-2

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Greg's Picks

Well the good news is that I finally broke out of my 2-3 rut. The bad news is that I failed to pick up a second win this past week. I don't really have much to complain about this past week, no terrible breaks, just some games that didn't quite go the way I thought they would.

The week started with Purdue failing to score against Oregon. I figured the Ducks would be sluggish, and they really were. Purdue had every opportunity to keep that game within a few scores, but that's tough to do when you can't score. BYU was up next and lucky me, I happened to catch OSU on a night where it found some offense. Next up was the over in the Miami game and that was a sweat-free win that I needed. I had the under the Nebraska-Indiana game and I was right that Nebraska would have trouble scoring, but I missed on Indiana regressing. The week ended with Alabama, which could have won and covered, but that's not what the 'Tide prefers to do anymore.

Under (51.5) Navy vs. Notre Dame

It's always dangerous going under a low number like this, and yes, anything in the low 50s is low for college football. I'm at ease with this pick, however, because I know both teams are going to run the ball all day and kill a lot of clock in doing so. Notre Dame should find some success on the ground as Navy's defense is not very stout and while that could be a problem, I don't think this game will get out of hand. Notre Dame's offense has been good this season, but not explosive but the defense has been tremendous. The Fighting Irish have allowed more than 20 points just once in seven games, and while they haven't faced the most dynamic offenses in the country to this point, they certainly won't be facing one this week either.

Under (53.5) Indiana vs. Washington

I'm going back to the well here for a couple of reasons. The first is that Indiana QB Kurtis Rourke is expected to miss this game after having surgery on his thumb this week. This is a huge loss for Indiana and even though the Hoosiers have a backup with experience, it simply won't be the same without Rourke. Add to that a very strong pass defense on the other side of the ball, and I think we'll finally see the Hoosier offense struggle. Washington can move the ball through the air, but so far this season, Indiana has been very strong against the pass (and even better against the run).

Arkansas (-6.5) at Mississippi State

It's early in the season to be talking about bowl implications, and quite honestly, I'm not even sure how motivating a bowl appearance is for kids anymore, but if the Hogs want to play in a bowl game this year, they'd better get a win this week. Entering this week, Arkansas is 4-3, and after this week, it has games against Ole Miss, Texas, Louisiana Tech, and Missouri. I see one win in there and that gets them to six. As for Mississippi State, there's simply nothing left to salvage this season. The Bulldogs enter this game at 1-6, and while they fought valiantly against Georgia two weeks ago and against Texas A&M this past week, I think we are nearing the time that the towel gets thrown in. Arkansas might struggle against good competition, but the Razorbacks can beat up on lesser teams.

Alabama (-16.5) vs. Missouri

Didn't I just say that Alabama doesn't cover anymore? Man, that took me all of a few minutes to change my mind. Here's where I'm coming from, though. On one side, you've got a team that came in with high expectations and simply hasn't lived up to them, that might be true of both sides, but at least Alabama has shown signs of being an upper-echelon team, while Missouri can't seem to find any momentum. Now they travel to Tuscaloosa without their starting QB Brady Cook (Cook was doubtful as of Wednesday). For an offense that has struggled to find any success, this spells disaster. Throw in that one more loss means the end of any playoff hopes for 'Bama and you have the makings of a route.

Over (54.5) Florida State at Miami

Who would have thought two months ago that the line for this game would be three touchdowns? I'm staying away from that line, however, as I'm not quite sure how FSU comes out in this game. On one hand, I could see the Seminoles putting everything they have left in the tank into this game and somehow making it competitive. On the other hand, I could see Miami taking full advantage of a down FSU team and completely throttling them. Either way, one thing is for certain: Miami is going to put up some points and allow some as well. The Hurricanes are surrendering almost 40 points per game over their past three games and yet they've managed to win each of them. This won't be a shootout. FSU doesn't have the ammunition on offense, but it doesn't have to be a shootout to get on top of a number like this.

Last Week: 1-4-0; Season 17-23-0

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Jeff's Picks

We work separately and make our own picks, but we had some weird telepathy going on when all three of us picked the Louisville- Miami Over. Unfortunately, it was one of the few bright spots for us as I limped to a 2-3 record for the week. My Army bet came through, and I wish I had stuck with my original plan to bet on Navy. The Iowa spread lured me away and it proved to be the wrong way to go. Sometimes, when it looks too good to be true, it probably is. That won't stop me from taking some spreads that seem way off this week, beginning with BYU in my first pick.

BYU +2.5 @ UCF

The Vegas Illuminati are not very high on the Cougars, but this line is ridiculously narrow. I'm not even sure why UCF is favored, though they do have one of the best running backs in the nation in RJ Harvey. Jacurri Brown has supplanted KJ Jefferson and is faring a bit better, but the Knights are still a work in progress. The Cougars have allowed 153.5 rushing yards per game, so Harvey should have a good day. UCF is ranked fourth in rushing defense but a subpar 118th against the pass, so Jake Retzlaff will likely exert his will against a weak secondary.

Baylor -6.5 vs. Oklahoma State

Thanks to Sawyer Robertson, the Bears' offense is playing at an exceptionally high level. The switch from Dequan Finn appears to be permanent, and although he may come in for a wildcat play or two, Robertson will get vertical through the air quickly. The Cowboys are a tough team to figure out. They've been taken to task by the Big 12 so far but took a strong BYU team to the brink last week. Ollie Gordon finally delivered with a decent game, and unfortunately for the Bears, they rank 88th nationally against the run. Oklahoma State is worse (130th), so both teams should have no trouble running the ball. The key to this game should be Baylor's ability to throw against the Cowboys. They've allowed an average of 250.6 yards to opposing passers, and while they've brought this average down over the past few games, Robertson has the best QBR in the Big 12 and should be one of the Cowboys' stiffest tests to date.

Utah -3.5 @ Houston

It's time to get back to betting against Houston. While Utah has performed below expectations, their defense is way above average, and they'll face a Houston offense that has lost its identity. Donovan Smith has played his way out of the starting job, and duties could move to Zeon Criss or Ui Ale permanently after last week's debacle. Like BYU, this spread is a bit of a head-scratcher, but I'm scratching this one even harder. I have faith in Houston suddenly putting it all together this week, and only a great defensive performance against Utah will keep this game close.

Texas A&M -2.5 vs. LSU

Although LSU is ranked higher, the Aggies have the momentum advantage here. The offense is humming regardless of who is at quarterback, and Ni Scornton is striking fear in opponents' hearts on defense. The 12th man at College Station has already wreaked havoc on the new headphone system, and opposing quarterbacks are having a hard time hearing the calls. They'll be able to solve that problem with visual cues, but Texas A&M's imposing defensive front will cause big problems for Garrett Nussmeier. LSU has also had trouble stopping most offenses this season, and they need to prepare for two quarterbacks instead of one. Connor Weigman and Marcel Reed have completely different styles and it wouldn't surprise me to see both guys take snaps to confound the Tigers.

Under 53.5 Washington @ Indiana

I half-believe that Indiana's run could end this week, but I'm not completely confident in Washington's offense. I lean to the under because Washington's passing defense is tops in the nation, allowing an average of only 127.2 yards per game. Washington is a bit worse against the run, and Indiana has a serviceable defense on both sides of the ball. The defensive metrics scream a total below this number despite both teams' ability to hang big numbers on scoreboards.

Last Week: 2-3-0

Season: 20-20-0

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