Beating the Book: NFL Week 2 Picks Against the Spread & Score Predictions

Welcome to the Week 2 edition of Beating the Book, where we hand out NFL betting picks against the spread for every game, every week.

After a sluggish start to our NFL ATS picks for Week 1 – we unfortunately neglected to consider Jalen Carter getting ejected after the opening kickoff, as well as Xavier Worthy immediately going down – we rallied back on Sunday to post a borderline-respectable 7-8-1 ATS record for the week, including hitting our first Best Bet of the season.

I'll happily concede that we caught some major breaks on Sunday and Monday night, with both the Bills and Vikings rallying back from what felt like certain death to cover and win outright. Those wins went a long way, psychologically, toward offsetting what may be our worst pick of the year backing the Dolphins to win straight-up in Indy.

Anyway, Week 1 is now in the rear-view, and we shift our focus to a Week 2 NFL betting slate that will (hopefully) bring more offensive fireworks after unders finished 12-4 in Week 1. We have our first double-digit favorite of the season, as the Ravens (-11.5 vs. CLE) will look to bounce back from yet another devastating blown lead. Meanwhile, only two other games currently carry a spread of at least 6.5 points: Buffalo (-6.5) at the Jets and Arizona (-6.5) hosting the Panthers.

In terms of totals, the overall numbers are mostly consistent with what we saw in Week 1. Jags-Bengals is up to 49.5 – the highest of the week – while Seahawks-Steelers may be in danger of closing in the 30s by the time we get to Sunday.

You can find my thoughts on all of those games, and the entire NFL Week 2 betting slate, below. As will be the case every week throughout the season, we'll start chronologically and go game-by-game, picking each contest against the spread. Our best bet will always be highlighted in gold.

Best calls of Week 1:

Jaguars -3.5 vs. Panthers: Look, it's not often that I feel good about the Jags taking care of business. But when you have an opportunity to fade Bryce Young on the road, you take it.

Bills +1.5 vs. Ravens: Just an obvious no-brainer that was clearly a winner from the jump. At no point did it feel as though the Ravens were going to win that game.

Worst calls of Week 1:

Dolphins +1.5 at Colts: This was our Stay-Away of the Week for a reason. My goodness, Miami.

Lions +2.5 at Packers: So much for thinking the Lions were undervalued and questioning the Packers' passing game and secondary. Green Bay came away from Sunday with perhaps the most impressive performance of the week.

Last week: 7-8-1 ATS; 11-5 SU; 1-0 best bets (ARZ -6.5)

On the season: 7-8-1 ATS; 11-5 SU; 1-0 best bets

2024 season: 146-134-4 ATS; 195-89 SU; 7-12-2 best bets

Thursday Night Kickoff Game

Washington Commanders at Green Bay Packers

Spread: Packers -3.0

Total: 48.5

Washington didn't truly pull away from the Giants until midway through the fourth quarter, but it was still a quiet domination by last year's NFC finalist. The Commanders won the total yardage battle by 201 yards, ripped off 6.6 yards per play and ran for 220 yards – while holding New York to just 74 – behind a strong showing from Jayden Daniels and rookie Jacory Croskey-Merritt.

Meanwhile, the Packers came away as one of the biggest winners of Week 1, jumping out to an early lead over Detroit and never looking back. Jordan Love looked crisp and confident, but it was the Green Bay defense that stole the show, holding Detroit to its fewest yards per play since 2021. 

Daniels' mobility presents a new set of challenges, but I like the Packers' chances to keep the early momentum rolling, providing a shaky cornerback group can prevent Terry McLaurin from getting loose.

The pick: Packers 27 – Commanders 21

Sunday Early Slate

San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints

Spread: 49ers -3.5

Total: 43.5

This number was sitting at 6.5 on Sunday but has moved significantly toward New Orleans in light of some major injury developments for San Francisco. We know George Kittle won't be available, Brock Purdy is out multiple weeks, and it remains to be seen if Jauan Jennings will push through a shoulder injury.

The early indication is that the injury that forced Jennings out of last week's win over Seattle isn't overly serious, but it's possible he could still miss a game or two in the short term. There's a reason the Niners went out and signed Kendrick Bourne on Monday morning.

On the other side, the Saints predictably made things difficult on the Cardinals last week and nearly came away with the game-tying touchdown late in the fourth quarter. It wasn't exactly a banner day for Spencer Rattler – 27-of-46, 214 YDS – but he was sacked only once and did not commit a turnover. New Orleans out-gained Arizona 315 to 276 yards, though 13 penalties played a major role in the loss. 

Now knowing that it will be Mac Jones under center for San Francisco, this immediately becomes among the diciest picks of the week. Expert Kyle Shanahan to have Jones ready to roll, but there's suddenly a real opportunity for New Orleans to steal this game at home. Ultimately, I'll fall back on the Niners' (remaining) veteran infrastructure to win SU, but this is a clear stay-away on the side.

The pick: 49ers 20 – Saints 17

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys

Spread: Cowboys -6.0

Total: 44.5

This is a second consecutive divisional matchup for both teams. While the Giants fell flat against Washington, the Cowboys have to come away from their loss to the Eagles feeling relatively confident. Had it not been for a couple of key CeeDee Lamb drops, Dallas had a real opportunity to steal a road victory. If nothing else, it was a stern reminder that the Cowboys' passing game is one of the best in the league when Dak Prescott is healthy.

All things considered, the Cowboys' ground game looked about as expected. Myles Sanders' 49-yard run juiced the numbers a bit, and the absence of Jalen Carter can't be overstated. The Giants' defensive line should be among the best in the NFL, so this is going to be a game that Prescott, Lamb and George Pickens, who drew just four targets in Week 1, will have to win through the air.

I like Dallas to take care of business at home, but we'll once again hold our nose, duct tape our mouth, blindfold our eyes and take the Giants with the points. Six points feels just a notch too high, even if Brian Daboll is already having to confirm his starting quarterback one week into the season.

The pick: Cowboys 23 - Giants 20

Los Angeles Rams at Tennessee Titans

Spread: Rams -5.5

Total: 41.5

One of our few dead-on reads in Week 1 as the U44.5 in Texans-Rams. As expected, both defenses dominated the game, and the Rams were lucky to escape with a win thanks to a key fumble by Dare Ogunbowale (and an incredible recovery by Braden Fiske). Prior to that, the Rams lost a brutal fumble of their own while looking to salt the game away in the red zone.

It wasn't pretty, but the Rams did put up nearly 300 yards of total offense, and Matthew Stafford showed few, if any, signs of rust after missing most of training camp with a back injury.

On the other side, the Titans found a way to lose in Denver, despite the Broncos making a concerted effort to give the game away for four quarters. Bo Nix threw two terrible picks, lost a fumble, and Denver even muffed a punt deep in its own territory in the fourth quarter.

Of course, we had to head over to Stathead to find that, entering Sunday, teams that commit four turnovers and throw for fewer than 175 yards were 9-165 SU over the last 15 years. That stat alone implies that Tennessee should win about 94% of the time. However, the Titans did their part to finish with just 133 total yards (2.4 YPP), white going 2-of-14 on third downs and converting just seven first downs the entire afternoon. On top of that, the Titans had 13 penalties for 131 yards. 

I know the numbers won't be friendly, but overall I came away mostly impressed with Cam Ward. The decision-making was questionable, at times, but I thought Ward looked confident, mobile, and wasn't afraid to sling the ball downfield. Had it not been for a couple of drops by Calvin Ridley, Tennessee may have found a way to at least force overtime.

Regardless, Tennessee may be the worst-coached team in the NFL, and Brian Callahan vs. Sean McVay is an easy call. Don't be surprised if this is a lower-scoring game with both offensive lines struggling in Week 1.

The pick: Rams 21 – Titans 14

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets

Spread: Bills -6.5

Total: 45.5

The look-ahead on this game was Bills -8.5, but the number has moved below 7.0 in light of the Jets' offense looking significantly more competent than expected. Buffalo deserves credit for an all-time thievery on Sunday night, but the Bills' defense – the secondary, in particular – looks like it could be a serious liability.

Either way, the Jets are suddenly a very difficult team to evaluate? Is the offense actually good? Is the Steelers' defense actually bad? Who's to say. I want to be careful not to overreact to Week 1, but that was arguably the best game of Justin Fields' NFL career, as he led all quarterbacks on Sunday in EPA per dropback, as well as success rate.

The chances of Fields repeating that level of performance two weeks in a row are slim, but the Jets do get this game at home, and they could catch Buffalo in a lull after an emotional home victory. I don't expect the Bills to completely run away, but it's difficult to pick against Josh Allen after piling up 497 yards of offense on Baltimore.

The pick: Bills 28 – Jets 21

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals

Spread: Bengals -3.5

Total: 50.5

Week 1 was the rare instance in which we were all over the Jacksonville Jaguars, who took care of business, covered the 3.5 with ease and managed to (barely) hit the O24.5 team total, despite a 60-plus-minute weather delay that stemmed their early momentum. But as noted last week, the Jags pick was less about backing Jacksonville and more about fading the Panthers and Bryce Young.

I liked what I saw from the Jags' defense, but it was mostly more of the same from Trevor Lawrence, who missed his usual allotment of throws downfield.

Matchup-wise, the Jags get another soft defense in Cincinnati, so it's fair to expect the running game to have success, even if the Bengals were able to shut down Jerome Ford and Dylan Sampson in Week 1. The Lawrence vs. Joe Burrow matchup is a major concern, however, as the Jags' defense will be tested at a much higher level this week. Granted, Cincinnati did all it could to throw away another Week 1 game, but it's highly unlikely that Burrow and Co. are held down for a second straight week.

Rightfully, this is our highest total of the week, and both offenses should be able to have plenty of success. Cincinnati is always a difficult side to trust early on, but I like the Bengals to shake off yet another slow start en route to a 30-plus-point afternoon.

The pick: Bengals 33 – Jaguars 24

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions

Spread: Lions -5.5

Total: 47.5

Hoo boy. The Chicago Bears, baby. We are so back. Frankly, I'm not sure what to make of what we saw on Monday night. J.J. McCarthy looked awful for three quarters before completely flipping the narrative. Caleb Williams started 10-of-10 passing before reverting back to 2024 Caleb Williams, while the Bears reminded us all that they are, in fact, still the Bears.

That game was a complete toss-up for me with essentially a rookie quarterback going up against a QB in Williams with obvious flaws. Honestly, I came away from Monday night feeling no differently about Williams or the Bears' offense. For the most part, it looked a lot like last season. Williams made a few good throws early on, he scrambled well, but once the Bears lost momentum, it felt like they couldn't compose themselves and put together a sustained drive.

Unfortunately, this is a great comp:

On the Ben Johnson front, it's tough to assert that he left much of a mark on the game. Williams still played frantically, the Bears racked up some killer penalties, and Johnson somehow failed to ensure the Vikings would get the ball back before the two-minute warning late in the game. Blame the kicker all you want, but why not just kick the ball out of bounds? 

In the time that I'm writing this article, the number has already moved a full point in favor of Detroit. And to be honest, the Lions sitting as only 4.5-point favorites seemed destined to be bet up. It's not like the Lions are coming off of an impressive Week 1 showing of their own, but I'm willing to chalk up a decent chunk of Detroit's struggles to an incredible performance by the Packers' defense. Detroit ran for just 46 yards on 22 carries, while Jared Goff had just one completion of more than 20 yards. 

Even so, the Lions still have one of the best rosters in the NFC, and a new-look offensive line should gain continuity as the season goes along. I like this as a get-right spot for Detroit – particularly if the Bears are still without one or both starting corners.

The pick: Lions 27 – Bears 17

Seattle Seahawks at Pittsburgh Steelers

Spread: Steelers -3.0

Total: 40.5

In a week without many obvious, marquee matchups, this is one I'll be watching closely in the early window. Pittsburgh won a bizarrely high-scoring game against the Jets in Week 1, while Seattle is coming off of a crushing defeat – thanks in part to a friendly fire fumble – at home against the depleted Niners.

My initial inclination is to look toward the U40.5. Yes, it's a low number, and yes the Steelers almost hit this by themselves last week, but I see this as a major regression game – scoring-wise – for Pittsburgh. Aaron Rodgers and Co. managed only 271 yards of total offense in Week 1, including 53 yards on the ground (2.7 YPC). Seattle's defense did surrender 384 yards to San Francisco but was able to clamp down in the red zone and force the highest pressure rate of any team in Week 1 (Pittsburgh was No. 2). 

We'll see how effectively both teams are able to run the ball but I like Seattle to keep this game close.

The pick: Steelers 19 – Seahawks 17

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens

Spread: Ravens -11.5

Total: 44.5

Our biggest spread of the season thus far takes us to Baltimore, where the Ravens will look to take out some frustrations on a divisional opponent. The Ravens wiping the floor with Cleveland is obviously in play, but I do want to be careful here given that Baltimore followed up a similar Week 1 disappointment last season – a narrow loss to Kansas City – by losing outright to the Raiders as a 9.0-point favorite in Week 2.

I'm not expecting that level of letdown again, but it's worth noting that Cleveland should be entering this game at 1-0. Cleveland held Cincinnati to just 141 yards of total offense in Week 1, including seven (7) total yards in the second half. Meanwhile, the Browns piled up 327 yards of their own on 71 plays – the second-most of any team in Week 1. Over the last 15 seasons, teams that held an opponent under 150 yards and put up at least 300 yards of their own were 69-3 SU. What I've neglected to mention, of course, is that Joe Flacco threw two flukey interceptions, while the Browns missed an extra point and a 36-yard chip shot in the fourth quarter.

All of this is to say: the Browns will usually find a way to lose, but as long as Flacco is back there, the Browns have to be considered a reasonably formidable opponent. Even so, I like the Ravens to avoid a letdown and win this game by two scores.

The pick: Ravens 31 – Browns 17

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins

Spread: Dolphins -1.5

Total: 44.5

Oh boy. The Miami Dolphins are favorites after one of the worst Week 1 lie-downs in recent memory. Picking Miami to win outright at Indy is the early favorite for our worst pick of the year, even if we couched it as the Nick Whalen Stay-Away of the Week. Miami finished the first half with 43 yards of total offense in what was easily the most-lopsided game of Week 1.

The Colts won the time of possession battle 38:43 to 21:17, running 70 offensive plays compared to just 46 for Miami. Each team had only seven drives on the day. Here is how the first five for Miami played out: 5 plays (interception); 2 plays (sack fumble); 8 plays (punt); 6 plays (interception); 7 plays (out on downs). By the time Miami finally got on the board midway through the fourth quarter, it was (way) too little, too late, as Indy had already built a 30-0 lead.

Putting any faith in Tua Tagovailoa, who posted the second-worst QB rating of his career, feels impossible right now. But the Patriots didn't exactly set the league on fire in Week 1, either. While the Pats' loss at home to Vegas wasn't a complete embarrassment, New England gave up 6.3 yards per play and punted six times – including four three-and-outs – against one of the worst defenses in the NFL, on paper.

The absence of Christian Gonzalez was a major factor, and if he's back in the mix this week, that should provide the defense with a tangible boost. And for as dreadful as the Pats were for most of the day, they were still within striking distance throughout the game.

I don't like either side here, but I simply cannot endorse the Miami Dolphins after what we saw last week. Pats regroup and win outright as a slight dog.

The pick: Patriots 23 – Dolphins 20

Sunday Afternoon Slate

Carolina Panthers at Arizona Cardinals

Spread: Cardinals -6.5

Total: 44.5

This is shaping up to be one of the trickier games of the week. While the Cardinals ultimately took care of business to win and cover in New Orleans, it was far from comfortable. Had Juwan Johnson held on to a late target from Spencer Rattler, the Saints may have been in position to steal a game they were able to keep close throughout.

On the other side, Bryce Young and the Panthers are coming off of a rough Week 1 drubbing at the hands of the Jaguars, who picked up where the rest of the NFL left off last season and ran for 200 yards on a porous Carolina defense. Keeping opponents under 25 points is going to be a season-long struggle for the Panthers, but the Cardinals looked far from explosive in Week 1. 

Save for an early deep ball to Marvin Harrison Jr., and a 52-yard run from Trey Benson, the Cardinals' offense looked mostly like a mirror image of last year's good-not-great unit. Arizona is yet to identify anything in the way of a No. 2 receiver, as pass-catchers not named Harrison or Trey McBride accounted for 31 yards on 10 catches.

While I may have my questions about the Arizona offense, the Panthers' defense is clearly the biggest liability in this game. I'm tempted to take the points with Carolina, but I think Kyler Murray, James Conner, Harrison and McBride can do just enough to save another narrow cover at home.

The pick: Cardinals 27 – Panthers 20

Denver Broncos at indianapolis Colts

Spread: Broncos -1.5

Total: 42.5

This game very quickly moved from a maybe I'll toss it on the third TV game to one of the most intriguing of the week. After a rough offseason that culminated with the end of the Anthony Richardson Era in Indy, the Colts stormed their way to a shockingly lopsided win over the Dolphins in Week 1. Indy scored on all seven of its possessions and held the Dolphins to 211 yards of total offense in a game that was over by halftime.

Denver, meanwhile, was able to hang on for a 20-12 win over the Titans, but the Broncos' performance left plenty to be desired. Bo Nix committed three ugly turnovers, while a Marvin Mims muffed punt in the fourth quarter felt like it could be the final straw in what would have been an all-time letdown. Luckily, the Titans promptly lost 25 yards and punted on their ensuing drive, which enabled Denver to march down for the game-sealing score.

While Sean Payton and Bo Nix were clearly pressing and in full-on how are we not up by more? mode, the Denver defense lived up to its billing as one of the best units in the NFL, holding Tennessee to just 133 yards and 2.4 yards per play.

Strange things happen in Week 1 every year, so I don't want to read too far into either teams' opening performance. Nix should clean things up in Week 2, while we likely see some regression from Daniel Jones against a far better opponent. The Colts surprising us with another win at home wouldn't be shocking, but we'll lean on the Denver defense here.

The pick: Broncos 21 – Colts 17

Philadelphia Eagles at Kansas City Chiefs

Spread: Eagles -1.0

Total: 46.5

While I'll be dialed in on Panthers-Cardinals, the rest of the country will turn its attention to a Super Bowl rematch as the clear highlight in a three-game late window. The Chiefs are coming off of a major letdown game in Brazil, while the Eagles were able to hold on for a win – but not a cover – in Dallas.

The Eagles' defense showed some cracks in Week 1, and the secondary is a real concern, but the return of Jalen Carter should go a long way toward shoring up a run defense that allowed Miles Sanders and Javonte Williams to get loose for over 100 yards in Week 1. With Kansas City getting almost nothing on the ground against the Chargers, it's difficult to see that area improving this week.

As usual, the Chiefs will have to rely heavily on Patrick Mahomes, who did what he could to keep things close in Sao Paulo. But we're still five weeks away from Rashee Rice's debut, while it's unclear if Xavier Worthy will be available Sunday. That means it's Hollywood Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Tyquan Thornton (maybe?) time for KC – not good.

Give me the Eagles to send the Chiefs to their first 0-2 start since 2014.

The pick: Eagles 26 – Chiefs 20

Sunday Night Football

Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings

Spread: Vikings -3.5

Total: 45.5

We've waited long enough. It's time for the Nick Whalen Stay-Away of the Week. Deep down in my heart, it's probably Pats-Dolphins, but we can't just run from the Dolphins forever. So here we are.

My first inclination is to lean on Kevin O'Connell, Brian Flores and the Vikings defense, but I can't unsee the first three quarters of J.J. McCarthy's performance on Monday night. Maybe flipping the switch in the fourth quarter outweighed his early struggles, but I'm not ready to simply pencil in McCarthy as a competent starter just yet. Credit the Vikings' defense for keeping them in the game for three quarters, but also credit the Bears for somehow failing to put the game away.

That Vikings defense could give Michael Penix and Co. problems this week, but the injury report is trending in the right direction for Atlanta, as both Drake London and Darnell Mooney are expected to play. I have high expectations for the Falcons' offense, though the running game did almost nothing behind a shaky offensive line in Week 1. On a combined 22 carries, neither Bijan Robinson nor Tyler Allgeier had a run of longer than six yards.

Ultimately, this game will hinge on which version of McCarthy we see for the majority of the game. If he picks up where he left off at the end of Monday night, the Vikings probably win by a touchdown. But if McCarthy's play leaves the door open, Atlanta has enough firepower to pull away.

Note: I'll be making an early Week 3 play on ATL -1.5 at Carolina

The pick: Vikings 21 – Falcons 20

Monday Night Football Doubleheader

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Houston Texans

Spread: Texans -2.5

Total: 42.5

In the first of two Monday night games, we find a pair of teams that probably feel like they underachieved in Week 1. Tampa Bay was still able to walk out of Atlanta with a win, but the Bucs were out-gained by nearly 100 yards, threw for only 159 yards and had three three-and-outs on their first five drives.

In a wild loss to the Rams, Houston managed just nine points on three field goals but still had a chance to win the game late before a crushing Dare Ogunbowale fumble.

With the Bucs still down some key pieces, and the Texans' offensive line in shambles, this is close to a toss-up. Even without Chris Godwin and Tristan Wirfs, the Bucs' offense is the better unit, but we'll side with Houston's defense to clamp down and lead the Texans to a three-point win.

The pick: Texans 23 – Buccaneers 20

Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders

Spread: Chargers -3.0

Total: 46.5

The second game of our Monday night double-header – a true double-header, by the way, with the two games starting three hours apart – takes us out to Las Vegas for a divisional matchup between a pair of 1-0 teams.

The Chargers were among the most impressive teams in Week 1, putting up nearly 400 yards of total offense on the Chiefs while ripping off 6.4 yards per play. It was one of the better games of Justin Herbert's career, as he completed 25-of-34 passes for 318 yards and three scores, two of which ended up in the hands of Quentin Johnston.

Vegas also comes in with some momentum after winning what felt like a toss-up game on the road in New England. While I still have major questions about the Raiders' defense, it was able to shut down the Pats' ground game and hold New England to just one touchdown on 11 drives. 

This will be a much tougher test, however, especially if Herbert is rolling at close to the same level that he was in Sao Paolo.

I like the Chargers to win outright and just cover the field-goal spread.

The pick: Chargers 27 – Raiders 23