Best Ball Strategy: Post-Draft Underdog Rookies Pt. 1

With the 2023 NFL Draft concluded it's time to revisit the Underdog ADP and see how the rookie market responded to the results of the draft. Each blurb will look at the general situation of the player in question and grades the value of that player at current ADP.

This article will be a two or three-part series, and this is the first entry. The blurbs will list by descending draft slot order.

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Bijan Robinson, RB, ATL (8.0 ADP)

The hype for Robinson was sky-high even before the draft, and in light of his eighth overall selection to Atlanta his ADP has risen to the same height as his NFL draft slot. That Robinson was selected so high places him in a unique category, especially in recent times, but it might be worth pausing to reconsider whether Robinson should be taken over Jonathan Taylor (9.7 ADP), Austin Ekeler (12.0 ADP) or Saquon Barkley (15.4 ADP). Taylor was just the RB1 before two ankle sprains last year, Ekeler is a touchdown machine like we haven't seen since Priest Holmes, and Barkley will be tough to catch too if he at all improves on his pass-catching stats from last year.

The Falcons obviously intend to give Robinson the ball early and often, or else they wouldn't have selected him so high. But the Falcons also got strong returns from Tyler Allgeier and Cordarrelle Patterson as runners, so the Falcons won't be dependent on Robinson to move the ball from the backfield. In the cases of Taylor, Ekeler and Barkley there is no one on their rosters capable of imitation.

Verdict: Justifiable pick

Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, DET (41.2 ADP)

Gibbs was a shocking selection at 12th overall, but he's worth the pick. Gibbs isn't just a good pass catcher – there's already reason to believe he's one of the best pass-catching backs the NFL has seen at any point. The Lions have a strong offensive line and have shown good playcalling over the last two years, so it would seem like Gibbs could reach great heights as one of the most talented players in one of the most favorable playing situations. Gibbs runs routes like a good wide receiver, and he catches like one too. The idea of a wideout-caliber pass-catching threat with 4.36 speed is a premise not tested since Marshall Faulk. Gibbs is smaller and less capable of rushing volume than Faulk was, but their similarity as pass catchers could be jarring. For those who didn't see Faulk in his day, Gibbs could be the first of a kind.

Verdict: Decent value

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, SEA (59.8 ADP)

While Smith-Njigba lacks the speed and reach to threaten downfield from a boundary wideout position, he profiles uniquely well from the slot, which is where he's expected to run from primarily. His age-adjusted production and athletic metrics are both clear about this.

The question is how soon Smith-Njigba's arrival might occur. The Seahawks ran an awful lot of two-tight end formations – they're deep at the position with three starting-caliber players – but when the Seahawks are in three-wide Tyler Lockett should move outside, creating room for Smith-Njigba to play and play well. The more three-wide the Seahawks run, the sooner Smith-Njigba might break out. If they're running two-wide, though, then Lockett is a problem.

Verdict: Slight reach

Jordan Addison, WR, MIN (83.2 ADP)

I think Addison is pretty clearly the best rookie receiver for 2023, but he's going substantially later than Smith-Njigba. The key difference between them is that Addison can earn reps and thrive outside in addition to the slot, meaning he's not dependent on three-wide sets to produce numbers.

Addison drew and converted targets at a preposterous rate in college, and if his 4.49-second combine 40 had been run on the Ohio State pro day track it likely would have registered at 4.41 or 4.40 – a major departure from the standard narrative you see around Addison right now. A lot of people believe Addison and JSN are both roughly 4.50 athletes which isn't true. JSN would have likely run a 4.60-second 40 on the combine track, from which lens the Addison 40 time suddenly comes across more favorably than the general tone of discussion around these two players would indicate.

Addison is small and not fast, but he has good speed for the tasks that pertain to his skill set. Maybe Addison isn't fast enough to run a killer fly route, but he's amazingly talented at running any route underneath or the intermediate, and at those depths his speed easily grades above functional. That Addison can't win on a fly route isn't interesting – he doesn't need to run fly routes and wasn't going to anyway.

Verdict: Good value

Quentin Johnston, WR, LAC (95.9 ADP)

Johnston's draft stock was seemingly in a freefall in the days leading up to the draft... seemingly. What seemed to be true was simply false, however, as the Chargers snatched Johnston at 21st overall. With that, Johnston's fantasy stock was locked into a favorable track.

It's true that Johnston has limitations, namely that he's not strong at the catch point and can't draw targets as rapidly as Addison or JSN. But part of why Johnston draws fewer targets per snap is because he profiles for more ambitious routes further downfield. The lower the ADOT, the higher the per-snap target rate gets. The tradeoff there is that the further downfield, the more big-play potential. Higher yards per target, higher touchdown percentage. Johnston has the traits to thrive in such a role. Particularly since he landed with the Chargers – one of the league's most pass-happy offenses, with one of the league's best quarterbacks – Johnston is set up for a fast start his rookie year.

I personally don't rank Johnston lower than JSN, so at such a lower price I'll probably be ending up with more Johnston shares for the time being.

Verdict: Good value

Zach Charbonnet, RB, SEA (100.9 ADP)

That Charbonnet landed in Seattle was a major bummer in fantasy football terms, both for Charbonnet and for incumbent Seattle starter Ken Walker. It should work out well for Seattle – they mean to run more and better than anyone else in the NFL, and you need some real firepower in the backfield to pull that off. Unfortunately for fantasy investors of Charbonnet, he'll likely be capped at flex upside most weeks that Walker is healthy. If Charbonnet had landed in a starting role on another team he would maybe push for top-10 fantasy utility at running back.

Since fantasy potential depends about as much on opportunity as talent, Charbonnet should probably fall into a part of the ADP where he otherwise outclasses the talent of the alternatives. I still prefer Charbonnet over players like James Cook (93.6 ADP) or Rachaad White (76.6 ADP), but that's because I'm worried about them ending up in committees like the one Charbonnet got stuck with. The difference is that Charbonnet is very good, and Cook/White are replacement-level types. Charbonnet's value is much worse than it was pre-draft, and yet he still appears to be a good pick up to a certain exposure level.

Verdict: Decent value