Box Score Breakdown: Usage Analysis from Conference Championship Sunday

Commanders (23) at Eagles (55) 

Commanders Personnel: 11 - 68% / 12 - 10% / 21 - 12%

77 Plays — 56 DBs — 7.3 aDOT — 30-of-49 for 278 yards — 1 TD, 1 INT, 3 sacks, 4 scrambles

• RBs Brian Robinson and Austin Ekeler had a pretty even workload split again, with the snaps going more toward Ekeler due to Washington falling way behind. Robinson still got more carries, however, and it was a rough day for Ekeler with his 13 touches yielding 32 total yards and a lost fumble.
  • Ekeler is signed through 2025 and due about $3.5 million in non-guaranteed compensation. I think the Commanders will keep him, but it's not a sure thing. Robinson, meanwhile, has one year remaining on his rookie contract. He should get a salary bump via proven performance escalators, given that he's made a lot of starts and put up decent numbers. In terms of real-life value, I'm not sold on him being much better than replacement level. Ekeler at least has his niche, whereas Robinson is a jack of all trades who doesn't do anything especially well.
• WRs Dyami Brown and Olamide Zaccheaus both topped 70 percent snap and route share, remaining regulars alongside Terry McLaurin, who was close to 100 percent snap share until the final drive.
  • Brown didn't exactly continue his hot streak, but he had a respectable performance, catching three of five targets for 42 yards. A few weeks ago, it looked like he might have to battle it out for a roster spot in 2025, be it with the Commanders or another team. Now he may get offers for No. 3 receiver money (he's scheduled for unrestricted free agency).
• TE Zach Ertz had an important drop but otherwise finished his year in impressive fashion, catching 11 of a team-high 16 targets for 104 yards. He gave the Commanders a great return on his one-year, $3 million contract, and they may try to bring him back even though 2024 second-round pick Ben Sinnott is waiting in the wings.
  • Sinnott was one of my favorite late-round picks last summer but barely played as a rookie, stuck behind not only Ertz but also blocker John Bates. If the Commanders bring Ertz back, it can be taken as a hint that they aren't confident in Sinnott's development.

Eagles Personnel: 11 - 67% / 12 - 30%

66 Plays — 32 DBs — 5.8 aDOT — 20-of-28 for 246 yards — 1 TD, 0 INT, 2 sacks, 2 scrambles

• RB Saquon Barkley scored a 60-yard TD on his first carry. The Commanders prevented long runs after that, but they got eaten up by Philadelphia's passing game instead, and Barkley scored two more TDs before the end of the afternoon.
• QB Jalen Hurts scored two of his three rushing TDs on tush-push plays. He ran for only 16 yards but didn't seem to have any major mobility limitations while playing with a knee brace. He had a 17-yard carry wiped out by a penalty.
• The Eagles continued using a lot of two-TE sets, with Grant Calcaterra taking a bunch of the snaps that went to Jahan Dotson during the regular season. Dotson caught a TD pass in the opening round of the playoffs but has been quiet ever since, with Philadelphia's passing game entirely dominated by A.J. Brown, Dallas Goedert and DeVonta Smith.
• RB Kenneth Gainwell suffered a concussion, which left Will Shipley with mop-up duty late in the fourth quarter. Shipley almost broke a long TD run but was caught from behind in un-Barkley-like fashion.

Stock ⬆️:   TE Zach Ertz

Stock ⬇️:   RB Austin Ekeler

  Eagles Injuries 🚑: RB Kenneth Gainwell (concussion), LG Landon Dickerson (knee)

Bills (29) at Chiefs (32) 

Bills Personnel: 11 - 77% / 12 - 0% / 6OL - 13%

68 Plays — 37 DBs — 7.6 aDOT — 22-of-34 for 237 yards — 2 TDs, 0 INT, 2 sacks, 1 scramble

• RB James Cook had his usual role, taking slightly less than half the snaps and 16 of 25 RB opportunities. He had a fantastic evening with 134 yards and two TDs on 16 touches, which led to some frustration among Bills fans and other observers when Ty Johnson got a lot of playing time and did so little with his chances (including a first-down carry being stuffed on the final drive).
  • I'm not sure Cook is built to handle huge workloads, but inching him up to about 60% of snaps and 70% of the touches next season wouldn't be a bad idea. Ray Davis has a lot of potential as a between-the-tackles runner, but the gap between Cook and Johnson seems pretty big even if the Bills prefer Johnson's blocking.
  • Johnson isn't under contract for next year but likely would be cheap to re-sign, as most of his value seems to come from scheme familiarity, not messing up assignments and not dropping passes, rather than anything he does once the ball is in his hands.
• WR Amari Cooper got more playing time this week, largely at the expense of Keon Coleman, whose 44 percent route share was fourth among BUffalo's wide receivers.
  • WR Curtis Samuel barely played and got just one target, with Coleman, Cooper and Mack Hollins all rotating alongside slot stalwart Khalil Shakir.
  • Cooper and Hollins are scheduled for unrestricted free agency, while Samuel has all but $1 million of his 2025 salary guaranteed. It's easy to forget that Samuel signed a three-year, $24 million deal this past March, as he was then used in a part-time role for nearly all of the season. There's some chance of a larger role in 2025, especially if his 2024 limitations were related to his lingering problems with turf toe (although that could be an issue again next year).
• TE Dalton Kincaid got only 46% snap share, but his 72% route share was second highest on the team. He again failed to live up to his billing as a first-round pick, unable to make a difficult catch on fourth down on what ended up being Buffalo's final drive.
  • TE Dawson Knox has a $4.5 million guarantee for his $8.85 million salary next season. He'll likely be back, and while he's no ace receiving threat, he may cut into Kincaid's snaps/routes more if the 2023 first-round pick doesn't develop in a hurry.
• Top cornerback Christian Benford left in the first quarter after suffering a concussion for a second straight week. He never progressed to full practice this week, mysteriously missing Friday's session for "personal" reasons, and there was never any announcement of clearing concussion protocol. He played anyway, and while the hit that knocked him out of the game wasn't especially vicious, Benford had to be carted off the field and looked like he had no idea where he was or what was happening. Not a good look for either the Bills or the NFL.

Chiefs Personnel: 11 - 56% / 12 - 27% / 22 - 10%

63 Plays — 34 DBs — 6.8 aDOT — 18-of-26 for 245 yards — 1 TD, 0 INT, 2 sacks, 6 scrambles

• RB Kareem Hunt took the lead over Isiah Pacheco again, getting 56% of snaps and 18 of 25 RB opportunities en route to 70 total yards and a touchdown.
  • The routes were divided between the RBs, with Hunt and Pacheco at 36% share while Samaje Perine got 25% (Perine's lone target was a 17-yard gain to clinch the game on the final drive).
• WR Xavier Worthy led the team in route share (89%) and targets (seven), finishing with a 6-85-1 receiving line and two carries for 16 yards.
• WR Hollywood Brown was second among the WRs in snap share (67%), route share (79%) and targets (five). He caught two passes on the opening drive but didn't do much thereafter.
• WR JuJu Smith-Schuster played ahead of DeAndre Hopkins and took advantage with two long catch-and-runs to finish with 2-60-0 on three targets.
  • Smith-Schuster got 59% snap share and 64% route share, while Hopkins was at just 17% and 32%, respectively.
• The Chiefs went three-wide more than usual, which resulted in TE Noah Gray slumping to 11% route share, although his 43% snap share wasn't too far below his norms. Nearly all of Kansas City's pass plays came from three-wide formations.
  • TE Travis Kelce still got his normal workload, at least in terms of snaps (92%) and routes (86%), but he was held to 2-19-0 on four targets.

Stock ⬆️:   JuJu Smith-Schuster, Xavier Worthy

Stock ⬇️:   TE Dalton Kincaid  /   DeAndre Hopkins

  Bills Injuries 🚑: CB Christian Benford (concussion)