This article is part of our DraftKings NFL series.
It's the final week of the regular season, which means we need to consider playoff motivation before analyzing the slate. The Chiefs are still playing for the No. 1 seed, so they should be all-out to win against the Raiders, who have nothing to play for after being eliminated from playoff contention last week. The Titans and Jaguars have everything to play for as the winner of that game will be crowned AFC South champion. Since the Raiders are the only team with no motivation, I won't spend any significant salary on their players and there's a good chance I'll just fade them altogether, considering there are plenty of good options on the Chiefs, Jags and Titans.
I thought it would be best to breakdown the slate by position. I've highlighted the top value options for cash games and added some ideas for tournaments. Speaking of GPP strategy on two-game slates, it's best to plan for specific game scripts, similar to how you would for single-game showdowns and then build lineups that fit them. Finding some leverage should be a priority, and it's often easier to find because of all the chalk and condensed rostership.
|Over/Under||Road Team||Road |
|Home Team||Home |
|52.5||Kansas City Chiefs||31||Las Vegas Raiders||21.5|
|40||Tennessee Titans||16.75||Jacksonville Jaguars||23.25|
- Patrick Mahomes at LV ($8,400)
The Chiefs have a massive 31-point implied total. Mahomes has been great again this season. He's the betting favorite to win MVP. He threw for four touchdowns and put up more than 30 fantasy points when these two teams met in Week 5. There isn't much else to say. It's relatively easy to afford him if you don't spend up at WR.
- Trevor Lawrence vs. TEN ($6,100)
It's been quite the turnaround for Lawrence. Maligned by many as a bust after his rookie season, he's been exceptional in his second, especially lately as he's led the Jags on an impressive run that has them on the cusp of an improbable division title. In Week 14, he torched the Titans in Tennessee for 368 yards and three TDs. He also ran for a score as he posted a season-high 36 fantasy points. The $2,300 gap between him and Mahomes seems too wide.
Those are the only two QBs I'm considering but if you play the largest-field GPPs, taking a chance on Jarrett Stidham ($5,400) makes sense. He isn't going to be popular and showed plenty of promise in his first start last week when he threw for 365 yards and three TDs against a stout 49ers defense.
- Derrick Henry at JAX ($8,000)
With Joshua Dobbs starting at QB, you'd figure the Titans will lean on Henry as much as possible in their most important game of the season. He had a nice game against Jacksonville in Week 14, rushing for 121 yards and a TD on 17 carries. He would've seen more carries had the Titans not been down 19 points heading into the fourth quarter. The decision to roster him might come down to how you think the game goes. He's a great option if you think it stays competitive but could have trouble paying off his price tag if the Titans are playing catch-up.
- Travis Etienne vs. TEN ($6,700)
The Titans have one of the best run defenses in football. They did not allow a 100-yard rusher all season. Etienne was held to 32 yards on 17 carries in the Week 14 matchup. Still, on a two-game slate where the Jags are substantial favorites and where we have few options, he projects reasonably well for his salary. For GPPs, I like the idea of fading Etienne in favor of the Jags passing game. The Cheifs have cheaper RBs who can be rostered instead.
- Jerick McKinnon at LV ($6,300)
McKinnon has been a touchdown-machine recently, with eight scores in his last five games. He has at least five catches in three of those games as the Chiefs continue to feature him heavily in the passing game. Either Kansas RB is a good option considering their 31-point implied total. Isiah Pacheco ($5,600) will get most of the rushing attempts, which could mean upward of 20 if the Chiefs win in a blowout. He has multiple-touchdown upside in that type of game script.
One of the pivotal decisions on this slate is what to do with Davante Adams ($8,800). He stands alone at the position as he's $2,600 more than any player. I faded him last week against the 49ers and got burned as he put on a show with seven catches for 153 yards and two scores. I mentioned that I didn't want to spend significant salary on the Raiders, and it's especially difficult if you want to roster Mahomes, Henry, Kelce. But if you believe in Jarrett Stidham, who proved plenty capable last week, Adams won't be overly popular and has the upside to break the slate.
- Christian Kirk vs. TEN ($6,200)
The Titans' defense is a pass-funnel. I want as much exposure to the Jags pass-catchers as possible. Kirk probably will be less popular than he should be considering he's the second-highest priced WR and his recent game log is underwhelming. You can pretty much throw out Jacksonville's last two games, though, as they rested starters in the second half of last week's game and played in bad weather the week before.
- Zay Jones vs. TEN ($5,000)
Again, if you forget about Jacksonville's two most recent games, the numbers on Jones look great. He exploded in Week 15 against the Cowboys for 106 yards and three TDs. He caught eight of 12 targets for 77 yards the week before that, in the reverse matchup against the Titans. He'll be relatively popular on Saturday, and rightly so.
The Chiefs WRs are always decent options. JuJu Smith-Schuster ($5,400) might go overlooked after back-to-back subpar games, but he has ceiling potential, topping 20 fantasy points three times since Week 6. Kadarius Toney ($4,000) caught all four of his targets for 71 yards last week. Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($3,900) caught just two of seven targets, but the volume was encouraging. Any are worthy options with Mahomes throwing the ball.
Looking elsewhere, Treylon Burks ($4,200) and Robert Woods ($4,100) both seem a bit too cheap. Dobbs is a much more capable passer than Malik Willis. Burks drew eight targets last week while Woods drew nine and found the endzone. They make perfect sense on lineups that don't include Derrick Henry and plan for the Titans to be playing from behind. Marvin Jones ($3,600) is cheap enough to take a chance on if you need salary relief. He caught six of seven targets last week and has three TDs this season.
- Travis Kelce at LV ($7,900)
Despite topping 100 yards in two of his last three games, Kelce has gone five consecutive games without a touchdown. You'd expect that to change Saturday. Not that it's overly significant, but it was the Week 5 matchup against the Raiders when he put up the historic statline of four TD catches on just 25 receiving yards. I like the idea of rostering two TEs in tournaments.
- Evan Engram vs. TEN ($4,500)
Engram looks like one of the better point-per-dollar value options on the slate. Prior to last week, he averaged 10 targets in his last four games, with three TDs in that span. It was the Week 14 matchup against the Titans in which he had a career game of 11 catches for 162 yards and two scores. He's become a favorite target of Lawrence, who should look his way often Saturday.
If I roster a Raider, it's likely to be Darren Waller ($4,400). He's caught a TD in two of three games since returning from injury and could offer leverage off of the more popular Engram for the same salary. Or you could get leverage by rostering them together. Chigoziem Okonkwo ($3,300) is a viable option for cheaper. He makes similar sense to Burks and Woods in lineups that don't contain Henry but that's not a prerequisite considering how cheap his salary is.
- Jacksonville Jaguars vs. TEN ($3,400)
The Jags defense has scored double-digit fantasy points in four consecutive games. Joshua Dobbs and the Titans have a paltry 16.75 implied team total.
- Kansas City Chiefs at LV ($3,200)
Pretty simple analysis. Jarrett Stidham will make his second career start. The Raiders likely will be playing from behind. The Chiefs defense should have opportunities for sacks and interceptions.