DraftKings NFL Week 14: Top Picks and Lineup Strategy

Sunday's Week 14 slate includes 11 games and features Bengals-Bills with a 53.5-point total. It's that time of year when weather starts to change things, and it looks like Buffalo could be the spot most affected. I'd check the forecast closer to kickoff, especially if planning to roster Josh Allen, Joe Burrow or any of their pass-catchers, as conditions might not be favorable for a shootout. 

In this breakdown, I've highlighted the top options for cash games and included some of my favorite ideas for GPPs. As usual, leverage and correlation are paramount to winning large-field tournaments and important to prioritize when building lineups. For cash games, play the best chalk and, when in doubt, follow ownership, which you can get an idea of from our NFL DFS optimizer.

Note: All prices listed come from DraftKings, but most of the logic can be applied to other sites across the DFS industry. Discussion is limited to players from the "main slate" of games kicking off at 1 p.m., 4:05 p.m. and 4:25 p.m. EDT on Sunday. The strategy below is meant for large-field tournaments, where payouts typically are limited to ~20 percent of lineups, with the majority concentrated at the very top.

The Games

Point-Per-Dollar Value

These are the players with the best projections relative to their salaries — good plays both for cash games and large-field tournaments. While we don't want our GPP lineups to look like cash-game lineups top to bottom, there's nothing wrong with using a few chalky plays.

• RB James Cook vs. CIN ($7,800)

It's been an incredible season for Cook, who's coming off his seventh 100-yard rushing game after another massive effort in which he saw 35 touches for 177 scrimmage yards against the Steelers. The Bills have the highest implied total on the slate and another favorable matchup at home against a bad Bengals defense. Cook will be among the most popular RBs in every format and rightfully so. 

• WR Michael Wilson vs. LAR ($5,600)

Wilson projects as the top point-per-dollar value of all WRs priced under $8K. For cash games, the matchup is irrelevant for the type of volume he's likely to see. We saw him catch 25 passes on 33 targets over the two games Marvin Harrison missed a few weeks ago. The Cardinals are throwing at the highest rate in the league and that shouldn't be expected to change as they're still without RBs James Conner and Trey Benson.

Other Cash-Game Options

QB Josh Allen vs. CIN ($7,700)

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QB Jordan Love vs. CHI ($5,900)

QB Jacoby Brissett vs. LAR ($5,700)

QB Trevor Lawrence vs. IND ($5,400)

QB Marcus Mariota at MIN ($5,000)

QB Tyrod Taylor vs. MIA ($4,900)

RB De'Von Achane at NYJ ($8,800)

RB James Cook vs. CIN ($7,800)

RB Bucky Irving vs. NO ($7,000)

RB Josh Jacobs vs. CHI ($6,800)

RB Breece Hall vs. MIA ($6,500)

RB Quinshon Judkins vs. TEN ($6,400)

RB RJ Harvey at LV ($5,700)

RB Kenneth Walker at ATL ($5,600)

WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba at ATL ($9,000)

WR Puka Nacua at ARI ($8,700)

WR Ja'Marr Chase at BUF ($8,200)

WR Michael Wilson vs. LAR ($5,600)

WR Christian Watson vs. CHI ($5,200)

WR DJ Moore at GB ($4,800)

WR Adonai Mitchell vs. MIA ($4,600)

WR Luther Burden at GB ($3,800)

TE Tyler Warren at JAX ($5,000)

TE Kyle Pitts vs. SEA ($4,200)

TE Harold Fannin vs. TEN ($3,700)

TE Colston Loveland at GB ($3,200)

D/ST Cleveland Browns vs. TEN ($3,700)

D/ST Tennessee Titans at CLE ($2,900)

D/ST Washington Commanders at MIN ($2,800)

Passing-Game Stacks

Stacks are the centerpiece of most tournament lineups, seeking to take advantage of positive correlations between players. It rarely makes sense to use a quarterback without one or two of his pass catchers, even if the player in question scores a decent portion of his fantasy points with his legs. Ideally, a stack also includes a pass catcher from the other side of the game, hoping to take advantage of a back-and-forth shootout. (Implied team totals are listed in parentheses.)

Cincinnati Bengals (24) at Buffalo Bills (29.5)

Bengals

Coming off an upset win in Baltimore on Thanksgiving and boosted by the return of Joe Burrow ($6,500), Cincinnati still has playoff aspirations as they head to Buffalo for the slate's marquee matchup and highest total. Despite showing a bit of rust against the Ravens, Burrow looked good as he threw for 261 yards and two touchdowns. He'll also have Tee Higgins ($6,200) back after the WR cleared concussion protocol. From an ownership standpoint, Ja'Marr Chase ($8,200) will be the only popular Bengal, but it won't be overwhelming with Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Puka Nacua also appealing. Chase is coming off seven catches on 14 targets for 110 yards and should be regarded more favorably as his floor/ceiling combo is higher with Burrow back. The same goes for Higgins, who will be under-owned and can be rostered for leverage. 

Bills

Buffalo has really turned into a run-first offense, and why wouldn't they be based on how good James Cook ($7,800) has been? Cook is coming off 35 touches for 177 scrimmage yards in last week's win over the Steelers. It was his seventh 100-yard rushing of the game of the season, and he caught at least three passes for the fourth straight week. It's no wonder he projects as one of the best overall plays on the slate, and he should be very popular. Based on that and the fact that Josh Allen ($7,700) is always tough to stack because he's expensive and his pass-catchers are inconstant and/or unreliable, the rest of Buffalo's offense will go overlooked. Khalil Shakir ($5,300) is likely to see the most volume while Keon Coleman ($4,000) offers a deep threat. When healthy, tight end Dalton Kincaid ($4,300) has been the best option and he's trending towards playing after returning to practice. I'd consider them all for larger-field GPPs only.  

• Favorite Bengals Stack: QB Burrow + RB Cook + WR Higgins or WR Chase
• Favorite Bills Stack: QB Allen + WR Chase or WR Higgins + WR Shakir

Los Angeles Rams (27.75) at Arizona Cardinals (19.75)

Rams

MVP frontrunner Matthew Stafford ($6,900) had gone eight games without an interception before throwing two in last week's surprising loss to the Panthers. Sunday's matchup against Arizona looks like the perfect bounce back spot. The Cardinals play uptempo and have a weak defense that's allowed 41 points to the 49ers and 44 to the Seahawks in recent weeks. Puka Nacua ($8,700) is popping in projections and will be the only Ram to see considerable ownership. Similar to last week, Davante Adams ($7,700) is one of the better leverage options at his position. He caught two more touchdowns last week for his fourth multi-score game in the last seven. He and Stafford have been unstoppable around the goal line. 

Cardinals

No team has passed at a higher rate than Arizona over the last month and it's not even close. Expect that to continue after Trey Benson was ruled out again, as they haven't been able to establish anything without him or James Conner. Jacoby Brissett ($5,700) is coming off his third consecutive 300-yard passing game and has thrown for at least 258 in all seven of his starts. Incredible stuff and great for DFS. Marvin Harrison ($5,800) returned from a two-game absence to catch six of seven targets but injured his heel and has been ruled out. Michael Wilson ($5,600), projects among the top point-per-dollar value as a result. Trey McBride ($8,000) continues to dominate, with seven TDs in his last seven games and averaging nine catches over his last four. He'll go relatively overlooked now that he's priced all the way up, making him appealing for leverage. 

• Favorite Rams Stack: QB Stafford + WR Nacua or WR Adams + WR Wilson
• Favorite Cardinals Stack: QB Brissett + WR Nacua/WR Adams + WR Wilson and/or TE McBride

Other Stacks to Consider

QB Jayden Daniels + WR Terry McLaurin or TE Zach Ertz

QB Jordan Love + WR Christian Watson + WR Luther Burden or WR DJ Moore

QB Baker Mayfield + WR Emeka Egbuka/WR Chris Godwin + WR Chris Olave/WR Devaughn Vele

QB Caleb Williams + RB Josh Jacobs + WR Luther Burden or WR DJ Moore 

QB Tyrod Taylor + RB De'Von Achane + WR Adonai Mitchell or WR John Metchie

QB J.J. McCarthy + WR Justin Jefferson 

QB Tyler Shough + RB Bucky Irving + WR Chris Olave or WR Devaughn Vele

High-Priced Heroes

• RB De'Von Achane at NYJ ($8,800)

Achane has at least 20+ carries and 120+ rushing yards in three consecutive games. That's before factoring in his considerable upside as a receiver and the Dolphins' favorable matchup against a Jets team that traded away its best defensive players. After a warranted increase in salary, he won't be as chalky as he was last week when you consider that James Cook projects better from a point-per-dollar standpoint.  

• WR Puka Nacua at ARI ($8,700)

Take your pick between Nacua, Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($9,000) and Ja'Marr Chase ($8,200). Smith-Njigba, mainly because he's the most expensive, will be the least popular of the three, and that alone makes him good leverage in GPPs. Chase can obviously succeed in any matchup, but I'm a little worried about the weather in Buffalo and his target share with Tee Higgins back. I chose Nacua because the Rams have a prime matchup in sunny Arizona against a bad defense and should be motivated to bounce back after flopping in Carolina last week. 

Honorable Mentions: WR Ja'Marr Chase ($8,200); TE Trey McBride ($8,000)

Fading the Field

Every week we see at least one or two players who are popular without the backing of a top point-per-dollar projection. In some cases it even makes sense to fade a player with a strong projection, particularly when there are good alternatives at the same position and price range.

• RB Jonathan Taylor at JAX ($9,300)

I find it notable that Jacksonville hasn't allowed more than 63 yards to an opposing RB all season. Their run defense actually ranks first in the league, as they're the only team that's allowed fewer than 1,000 rushing yards. Taylor is priced up, and considering the tough matchup, I'd much rather save the money and roster Achane and/or Cook.  

The Smash Spot

(Players in favorable spots to significantly outperform their salary.)

• WR Adonai Mitchell vs. MIA ($4,600)

Coming off the best game of his career, Mitchell has emerged as the Jets No. 1 WR in the absence of Garrett Wilson. He's always had elite speed and athleticism and finally seems to be putting it all together with the increased opportunity he's seen since being traded. He's averaging 8+ targets through three games and has the type of home run upside to pay off his salary on one play. Pairing him with Tyrod Taylor ($4,900) and Achane is one of my favorite stacks. 

Honorable Mentions: WR DJ Moore ($4,800); WR Luther Burden ($3,800)

The Bargain Bin

QB Tyrod Taylor vs. MIA ($4,900)

QB J.J. McCarthy vs. WAS ($4,700)

QB Tyler Shough at TB ($4,600)

RB RJ Harvey at LV ($5,700)

RB Kenneth Walker at ATL ($5,600)

RB Aaron Jones vs. WAS ($5,300)

WR DJ Moore at GB ($4,800)

WR Adonai Mitchell vs. MIA ($4,600)

WR John Metchie vs. MIA ($4,500)

WR Luther Burden at GB ($3,800)

WR Devaughn Vele at TB ($3,700)

TE Brenton Strange vs. IND ($3,900)

TE Harold Fannin vs. TEN ($3,700)

TE Evan Engram at LV ($3,400)

TE Mason Taylor vs. MIA ($3,300)

TE AJ Barner at ATL ($3,200)

TE Colston Loveland at GB ($3,200)

Injuries to Monitor

• WR Rome Odunze at GB

Odunze was ruled out Friday after I finished writing this article. His absence is important as it relates to DJ Moore ($4,800) and Luther Burden ($3,800), who should be in line for usage bumps and can now be considered viable in any format. Colston Loveland ($3,200) also stands to benefit. 

Weather

• Temperatures around freezing in Cleveland with 10mph wind and possible snow. 
• Freezing temperatures in Buffalo with light winds and possible snow. 
• Check the forecasts closer to kickoff because it's possible both spots might be just fine. They also might be worse than expected and then it's pretty easy to just avoid the passing-games.