Dynasty Value Meter: Winners from the 2025 NFL Draft

Sometimes the best news is no news at all. For a veteran running back during draft weekend, that's almost always the case. Below we'll look at some players who gained value during draft weekend, starting with veterans before moving on to the incoming rookies.

Veteran Winners

Veteran QBs ⬆️

QB Trevor Lawrence

The Jaguars traded up for Travis Hunter and said afterward that his main focus will be offense (although he'll also learn the defensive playbook and take some snaps on that side during the offseason). It may not be long before Lawrence is throwing to one of the best WR duos in the league, although it would've been nice to see the Jaguars score bigger blocking upgrades this offseason (they signed former Ravens guard Patrick Mekari and former Bucs center Robert Hainsey, both of whom bounced in and out of starting jobs the past few years). The Jags did draft a lineman in Round 3 (Wyatt Milum) and then a RB with pass-catching potential (speedster Bhayshul Tuten) in Round 4, so Hunter isn't the only new help for Lawrence.

QB C.J. Stroud

The Texans traded out of the first round and then took WR Jayden Higgins (No. 34), OT Aireontae Ersey (No. 48) and WR Jaylin Noel (No. 79). I've never been a fan of GM Nick Caserio, but he did an excellent job Thursday and Friday, adding three players with both college production and athletic testing that hints at futures as NFL starters. I think Higgins will be better than Christian Kirk by mid-season, perhaps even sooner, and Noel may ultimately prove superior to the veteran as well. The Texans have a stacked WR room on paper for the second straight year, only this time they aren't relying on a guy in his 30s and a guy who weighs 170 pounds. 

Veteran RBs ⬆️

RB D'Andre Swift

RB Chase Brown

RB Isiah Pacheco

Despite having some of the shakiest starting RBs in the league, each of the Bears, Bengals and Chiefs waited until the sixth/seventh round to add a new one. It's less surprising for the Bengals because they have so many needs on defense and reportedly are optimistic about Zack Moss returning from last year's season-ending neck injury. 

It's most surprising for the Bears, who had plenty of draft capital and a new head coach who made his name in Detroit behind one of the best backfield duos in the league. It now looks like Swift will have every chance to capitalize if Ben Johnson can fix Chicago's run game. As much as I like RB Kyle Monangai as a seventh-round pick, the fact he was barely drafted nonetheless bodes poorly for an NFL future. The Bears may well still sign a veteran, but I think they like Swift more than most of us do and don't blame him for last year's struggles.

RB Brian Robinson & Austin Ekeler

RBs Javonte Williams & Miles Sanders

RB Travis Etienne & Tank Bigsby

This is the second tier of RB winners, with Etienne and Bigsby having ducked the Ashton Jeanty rumors, Robinson and Ekeler not getting "competition" until Round 7 (Jacory Croskey-Merritt), and the Cowboys having settled for backfield additions in Rounds 5 (Jaydon Blue) and 7 (Phil Mafah). I'd still tread carefully here, apart from Etienne as a mid-round pick and Ekeler as a late-rounder.

Williams hasn't been the same player since his ACL tear, and Robinson was never good in the first place. The Commanders at least have a bunch of serviceable guys, whereas the Cowboys look like a prime candidate to try to revive Nick Chubb, or something like that. Still, it's good news for Williams and Sanders that Dallas settled for fringe prospects during the draft.

RB Isaac Guerendo

RB Will Shipley

This is the third tier — guys who obviously won't be starters but were at least fortunate to avoid serious draft competition for their backup jobs. The 49ers did grab Oregon product Jordan James in Round 5, but he's neither especially big nor fast, which may elicit ill-advised comparisons to fellow Duck Bucky Irving, who is a few notches ahead of James in terms of instincts, elusiveness and pass-game skills. An offseason with Jordan Mason and Elijah Mitchell departing and James being the only "noteworthy" backfield addition is a W for Mr. Guerendo.

The Eagles, meanwhile, didn't draft a running back at all, leaving Shipley and free-agent addition AJ Dillon to compete for the No. 2 job after Kenneth Gainwell signed with Pittsburgh in March. 

Veteran WRs ⬆️

WR Michael Wilson

The Cardinals didn't draft any WRs despite having only borderline starters like Wilson, Greg Dortch and Zay Jones behind last year's No. 3 overall pick Marvin Harrison. Arizona now looks like one of the more likely destinations for free-agent wideouts Amari Cooper and Keenan Allen, but it's nonetheless a win for Wilson to avoid serious rookie competition for his job. The 2023 third-round pick has started 25 of his 29 games in the NFL, with 565 yards as a rookie and 548 yards last year. The Cardinals seemingly hold Wilson in higher regard than most of us do. A Year 3 "breakout" to the range of 800 yards and 5-7 TDs wouldn't be shocking. Anything beyond that feels highly unlikely without Harrison and/or TE Trey McBride missing a lot of time.

WRs Darnell Mooney & Ray-Ray McCloud

McCloud is one of the worst No. 3 receivers in the league, playing in an offense that used 11 personnel on a league-high 86.2 percent of snaps last year. The Falcons nonetheless opted against bringing in competition during the draft, making McCloud the favorite for the No. 3 job again. That's also good news for target projections of Atlanta's other pass catchers, and Mooney in particular because McCloud has never offered any presence downfield to compete for the deeper targets on which Mooney relies.

WR Keon Coleman

Free-agent addition Joshua Palmer should quietly be a big upgrade on Mack Hollins (now with the Patriots), but the Bills also lost Amari Cooper, and didn't draft any WRs and haven't signed any of note besides Palmer. The depth chart essentially holds Coleman, Palmer, Khalil Shakir, Curtis Samuel and then a bunch of guys fighting for return jobs and/or other special-teams work. I thought the Bills would draft a WR on Day 2, or at least grab a couple Day 3. They instead stood pat, leaving minimal competition for the top four spots.

WRs Jalen Tolbert & KaVontae Turpin

Brandin Cooks signed with the Saints after playing just 10 games his final season in Dallas. Badly in need of WR help, the Cowboys didn't draft any this past weekend. Maybe an Amari Cooper reunion is in the works. For now, Tolbert and Turpin look to be Nos. 2 and 3 on the depth chart.

Veteran TEs ⬆️

TE Mike Gesicki

The Bengals re-signed Gesicki for three years and $25.5 million, then didn't sign or draft any other tight ends this offseason. They thus appear ready to run it back with last year's group, minus 2024 fourth-round pick Erick All, who tore the same ACL that he'd torn during his final college season. Gesicki and Drew Sample figure to get most of the TE snaps this year.

TE Theo Johnson

Johnson was one of the worst starting tight ends in the NFL last year, but he did improve a bit throughout the year while handling a near-every-down role, until a Lisfranc injury ended his season and led to surgery in early December. Players often aren't the same the year after Lisfranc injuries, but the Giants nonetheless opted against drafting a tight end, leaving Johnson, Daniel Bellinger, Chris Manhertz and Greg Dulcich to compete for roles this summer. It's probably the worst TE room in the league, with Johnson's combination of size and speed making him the only one with a hint of upside for fantasy.

Rookie Winners

Rookie QBs ⬆️

QB Jaxson Dart

QB Tyler Shough

QB Dillon Gabriel

These guys all were drafted earlier than I expected and all landed with QB-needy teams. Dart's spot in Round 1 perhaps wasn't surprising, but it's nonetheless valuable to have confirmation of that status (just ask anyone who took Shedeur Sanders in a dynasty rookie draft that took place before the actual NFL Draft). I don't expect any of these guys to develop into solid starters, but draft capital suggests Dart and Shough will at least get the chance. 

Gabriel was picked late enough (94th overall) that the pick won't be criticized, but I don't see any path to NFL success for a 5-foot-11 QB with mediocre athleticism. His arm is strong enough, and he was an excellent college player, but I don't think that will really matter when he steps onto an NFL field and is both smaller and less athletic than nearly all the other players.

Rookie RBs ⬆️

RB Omarion Hampton

A lot of people were hoping for Hampton to land in Denver or Dallas, where there's less short-term competition for backfield snaps. Both would've been great landing spots, but so is Los Angeles, where he'll be paired with franchise quarterback Justin Herbert and run-first offensive coordinator Greg Roman. The draft capital (22nd overall) is also good news, and for dynasty in particular we shouldn't be too worried about Najee Harris on a one-year, $5.25 million contract. Harris' combination of size, durability and passing-down experience means he won't disappear easily, but it's also hard to identify what he definitely does better than Hampton - maybe pass blocking? Hampton is better at breaking tackles even though he's slightly smaller, and he's also much faster than Harris.

RB RJ Harvey 

Harvey hit the jackpot, coming off the board earlier than most expected (60th overall) and landing with a team that had arguably the worst RB group in the league. What's more, the Broncos have an excellent offensive line, an emerging franchise quarterback and a playcalling head coach with a long history of feeding targets to RBs. Harvey is already 24 years old, but that's the only shortcoming in his prospect profile. He was fantastic at UCF, and then ran a 4.4 40-yard dash at 5-8, 205 pounds, proving unusually fast for a running back with such a stout build. The ceiling here looks something like 280 carries and 55 catches with good efficiency, i.e., high-end RB1 upside (be it in 2025 or the future).

RB Trevor Etienne

Etienne's prospect profile isn't especially exciting, with his 4.42 40 mitigated by a light frame (5-9, 198) and subpar jumps, hinting at average athleticism overall. He was a timeshare back at both Georgia and Florida, with his YPC dropping each year, but there is some reason for optimism after the Panthers took him Round 4. The other causes for optimism are Etienne's NFL bloodlines and the fact he's one of the youngest players in this draft class (turning 21 in July). Also note that new Panthers backup Rico Dowdle settled for a one-year, $2.75 million contract, which suggests NFL tams weren't all that impressed by his 2024 in Dallas. 

Rookie WRs ⬆️

WR Isaac TeSlaa

WR Pat Bryant

WR Savion Williams

WR Arian Smith

These guys all fall in the same category, having been drafted earlier than I (and most other people) had expected — Rounds 3-4 rather than 5-7. None of them is a priority dynasty target by any means, and expectations of special teams value may be part of why they were picked where they were, but it's nonetheless unwise to completely ignore it when NFL teams value a player more than the general public does. 

Williams is especially interesting, being a 6-foot-4, 220-pound WR who took 51 carries for 322 yards and six TDs in his final season at TCU. He's already 23 years old and never had more than 611 receiving yards in a season during his college career, but the odd combination of YAC ability and a huge frame has earned some Cordarrelle Patterson comparisons. Odd enough, Williams returned kicks in just one of his seasons at TCU, all the way back in 2020. 

WR Kyle Williams

Williams went 69th overall, about where expected or perhaps a bit earlier. Optimism is more about his landing spot than the draft capital, with New England seemingly having a franchise QB but not a downfield threat at wide receiver. Williams can immediately push Kayshon Boutte, who was a pleasant surprise last year, especially at the very end, but still faces a narrow path to success in the long run as a supposed deep threat with 4.5 speed and a 5-foot-11, 197-pound frame. Williams has a similar build, only with 4.4 speed and 3,609 collegiate receiving yards to his name. My best guess is that neither Williams nor Boutte will be the final answer to New England's downfield problem, but we at least now know that Williams will get a shot to prove me wrong.

Rookie TEs ⬆️

TE Mason Taylor

The capital (42nd overall) in line with pre-draft expectations, and Taylor ended up with what's likely a bad team with a subpar passing offense. The good news? His new team has arguably the worst group of veteran tight ends in the league, and perhaps the worst depth at wide receiver. It shouldn't be long before we see what Taylor can do, and he might even catch something like 60 passes as a rookie if he turns out to be a good one. The Jets really have nothing else besides WR Garrett Wilson in the passing game, but they may have enough rushing juice with Justin Fields and Breece Hall to put up a decent number of points anyway, especially if their recent first-round picks at offensive tackle (Olu Fashanu, Armand Membou) pan out.

TE Elijah Arroyo

The Seahawks have a better TE room than the Jets, but with Noah Fant ranking as a low-end starter and heading into a contract year. They're otherwise counting on Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Cooper Kupp to suck up targets, which sounds like a nightmare in terms of spacing and possible redundancy. One way to create better spacing — apart from having Marquez Valdes-Scantling or Tory Horton run wind sprints — is with an athletic tight end who can threaten the seams to keep safeties honest. Enter Arroyo, who averaged 16.9 yards on his 35 catches (seven TDs) for Miami last season, after having his 2022 and 2023 derailed by knee injuries. Knee problems also prevented him from working out at the combine, but that didn't stop the Seahawks from taking him earlier than expected. There's a lot that can go wrong and prevent Arroyo from ever contributing, but it's a reasonable risk given the rarity of 250-pound TEs who move the way he does.