This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Monday Night Football Bets: Cardinals vs Chargers Picks Tonight
If any of you took San Francisco yesterday, just put down the phone and go face the wall because you're in time-out. KC was free money. The Circa Millions are looking good so far at a 3-1 mark with the Ravens -3.5 pending tonight. The Vikings -1.5 was the hardest decision of my week and it really was a true toss-up, but it stands as the only loss right now.
Tonight though, we're talking about the other MNF game. I know, it's strange how this late into the year we're getting a double dipper. But I kind of like it...question mark? Just not how they stack them at the same time. It's a matchup of very cool, but slightly overrated cities. Los Angeles, Phoenix, let's go.
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Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5) @ Arizona Cardinals | Total: 44.5 (FanDuel
Chances are this is not your first read of one of my football articles. But in case it is, then you know how I believe this Arizona team is the highest variance one in the NFL. Once upon a time in 2022 and 2023, I knew exactly what they were going to do before they did. I rarely ever missed the right side of a Cardinals game because I had them down so cold. This season has been a bit different. It's not been bad, just more like average at best. Taking on an underrated LAC team off a bye could present some challenges.
The Chargers are a little better than I thought they would be. It's been a strange view to see their transformation from this high flying fireworks offense to a basic, but effective one in just the last two years. The perfect analogy would be to say transformed from a Bentley Continental GT to a KIA SUV. Nothing wrong with it because it still gets you from A to B, but it doesn't look as cool.
Justin Herbert is playing good clean football right now with just one INT. His six tuddies and 64 completion percentage have been reminiscent of prime game manager, Alex Smith. Herbert is a lot more than that. I think most people would agree he's a top-five-to-seven QB in real football. But this version of the Chargers offense under HC Jim Harbaugh is featuring a lot more running and a lot less passing. Herbie has only reached 30 pass attempts once. The success of the team has depended on the success of the ground game.
In five games so far the 3-2 Bolts are 3-0 in games where they've had at least 25 rush attempts and 0-2 when they haven't. Digging more into that rush game, it's the resurgence of J.K. Dobbins that has brought a new identity to this team.
Ranking 10th in yards coming into tonight (only five games), Dobbins has become a new man after missing virtually the past three seasons with various injuries. In his five games, the Bolts are 3-0 when he's had 90 yards or more. And 0-2 when he's been held under 50. The good news for him is Gus Edwards is out tonight and he'll be seeing the defense that allows just over 150 yards per game on the ground (3rd most) who also let David Montgomery and Brian Robinson go for 100+ each and Jordan Mason over 80 yards.
The game is truly a toss-up for me. I don't love one side or the other, so that's why I'm rolling with the rush prop for Dobbins. I think there's a real shot he gets a hundy tonight as well. A TD is in the realm of possibilities too as the Cards have allowed five of them to backs. It should be a lot of RB1 tonight.
MNF Props for Cardinals vs Chargers
Pick: J.K. Dobbins O79.5 yards -110 FD
Sprinkle: Dobbins 100 rush yards +184
