MONDAY NIGHT
Philadelphia (+2.5) at Green Bay, o/u 45.0
Monday, 8:15 p.m. EST
In a plausible NFC Championship Game preview, the Eagles will emerge from their bye and head to the proverbial (and somewhat literal this week) frozen tundra to take on the Packers in Lambeau. Philly's running away with the NFC East, moreso due to the collapse of their competition than the fact that they're playing particularly well. I mean, any team that loses to the Giants has to be a bit suspect, although the Eagles took care of business in the rematch. Jalen Hurts has a 15:1 TD:INT over the last six games with a 68.8 percent completion rate, 8.4 YPA and a couple rushing scores thrown in for good measure, and if he keeps that up he'll be tush pushing his way into the MVP discussion. Meanwhile, Saquon Barkley's somehow on pace for a disappointing 1,400 scrimmage yards and 12 total TDs, and A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert make a splash just about every time they're allowed to do so. The issue has been the defense, which hasn't been so bad the offense can't cover for it, but which should still be better than mediocre given the talent on the roster. Adding Jaelen Phillips won't hurt, but he won't save the unit either. Maybe the expectations are just too high for a defending Super Bowl champ with a GM who can seemingly do no wrong.
The Packers are also out front in their division at 5-2-1, but the competition in the NFC North is a lot fiercer, and it's not clear whether that tie with Dallas will be a boon or an albatross. Jordan Love is beginning to run out of targets he trusts, though. Jayden Reed was already on the shelf, and now Tucker Kraft is done for the year. Romeo Doubs is the only wideout who's avoided the injury report entirely this week, but one of Christian Watson or rookie Matthew Golden is going to need to step up, and soon. Josh Jacobs at least has been Mr. Consistent, finding the end zone in five straight games and seven of eight this season, and over four games since Green Bay's bye he's delivered 353 scrimmage yards and six rushing scores. The defense has been as good as anticipated once Micah Parsons was in the fold, sitting second in yards per play allowed and eighth in PPG allowed, although sacks and especially takeaways have been a bit lacking. If DC Jeff Halley's unit starts adding splash plays to the stinginess... well, they'll be better. I don't know that anyone is going to emerge as a true Super Bowl favorite in an NFC that has at least six viable contenders right now.
Key Info
PHI injury report: C Cam Jurgens (questionable, knee), EDGE Moro Ojomo (questionable, concussion), EDGE Nolan Smith (IR, tricep), CB Adoree' Jackson (questionable, concussion)
GB injury report: RB MarShawn Lloyd (IR, hamstring), WR Jayden Reed (IR, collarbone), WR Matthew Golden (questionable, shoulder), WR Dontayvion Wicks (questionable, calf), WR Christian Watson (questionable, knee), TE Tucker Kraft (IR, knee), LG Aaron Banks (questionable, neck), RT Zach Tom (questionable, back), EDGE Micah Parsons (questionable, pectoral), EDGE Lukas Van Ness (questionable, foot), LB Quay Walker (questionable, calf), LB Edgerrin Cooper (questionable, foot), CB Nate Hobbs (doubtful, knee)
Slight lean: WR DeVonta Smith (GB 20th in DVOA vs. WR2)
Slight lean: RB Josh Jacobs (PHI 26th in rushing DVOA, 28th in passing DVOA vs. RB)
Slight fade: RB Saquon Barkley (GB fifth in rushing yards per game allowed, t-sixth in rushing TDs allowed, seventh in passing DVOA vs. RB)
Strong fade: TE Luke Musgrave (PHI first in DVOA vs. TE)
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NFL weather report: temperature in the high 20s, 9-10 mph wind, 5-15 percent chance of snow
The Scoop: Barkley picks up 80 combined yards and a TD. Hurts throws for less than 200 yards and a touchdown to Brown. Jacobs responds with 80 yards of his own and his usual score. Love throws for 210 yards and two TDs, finding Doubs and Watson. Packers 24-17
SUNDAY A.M.
Atlanta (+6) vs. Indianapolis at Berlin, o/u 48.5
Sunday, 9:30 a.m. EST
Three straight losses have dropped the Falcons to 3-5, and it's pretty easy to find the culprit. Bijan Robinson averaged 6.5 yards a carry and 174.5 scrimmage yards over the prior four games; during the losing streak, those numbers have crated to 3.2 and 78.6. There's been no sign he's playing through an injury, but it also doesn't seem like defenses are completely selling out to stop him, as only Ashton Jeanty and Alvin Kamara have seen a lower percentage of eight-man boxes according to the NextGen Stats. Is it the mounting injuries along the offensive line? Bad play-calling by OC Zac Robinson? The Falcons' defense remains solid – they haven't let another team reach even 340 yards of offense in a game this year, and they're seventh in yards per play allowed – and Michael Penix has a 7:1 TD:INT over his last four starts, but without Bijan being Bijan, it's tough to see a turnaround coming.
The Colts head into Week 10 as the best team in the NFL even after last week's loss to the Steelers, sitting atop the AFC South with a 7-2 record and pacing the league with a plus-109 point differential. That loss had more to do with Pittsburgh's absurd turnover luck than anything else though, as an Indy offense that came into the contest with only four giveaways in eight games somehow coughed it up six times, five by Daniel Jones in a throwback performance to his Giants days. Jonathan Taylor also got held out of the end zone for the first time since Week 4, with a season-low 57 scrimmage yards, although having so many drives cut short couldn't have helped his numbers. The Colts still went all-in at the trade deadline by shipping first-rounds picks in 2026 and 2027 to the Jets for Sauce Gardner, plugging the most obvious hole on the roster. Once Charvarius Ward returns, the secondary will have one of the best groups of corners in the league between Ward, Gardner and Kenny Moore in the slot. DC Lou Anarumo never had this kind of talent in Cincy, but the unit will be missing DeForest Buckner this week to help slow down Bijan, if the Falcons don't manage to do it for them.
Key Info
ATL injury report: LG Matthew Bergeron (out, ankle), RG Chris Lindstrom (questionable, foot), RT Kaleb McGary (IR, leg), EDGE Leonard Floyd (out, hamstring), CB Mike Hughes (questionable, neck)
IND injury report: K Spencer Shrader (IR, knee), DT DeForest Buckner (IR, neck), EDGE Samson Ebukam (out, knee), CB Charvarius Ward (IR, concussion)
Slight lean: WR Darnell Mooney (IND 28th in DVOA vs. WR2)
Slight lean: WR Josh Downs (ATL 23rd in receiving yards per game allowed to WR3s)
Strong fade: WR Drake London (IND first in DVOA vs. WR1)
Strong fade: TE Tyler Warren (ATL second in DVOA vs. TE)
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NFL weather report: 10-20 percent chance of rain
The Scoop: Robinson records 80 combined yards and a TD. Penix throws for less than 200 yards and gets picked off twice, but he does hit Kyle Pitts for a touchdown. Taylor pops for 140 scrimmage yards and two scores, one rushing and one receiving. Jones throws for 290 yards and two more TDs, finding Michael Pittman and Downs, while also running in a touchdown of his own. Colts 34-17
EARLY SUNDAY
New Orleans (+5.5) at Carolina, o/u 39.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Tyler Shough's first career start maybe went a little better than I expected last week on the road against a tough Rams defense, as he committed only one turnover, got sacked only once and completed more than 60 percent of his passes. The Saints still lost of course, got smoked in fact, but at least he wasn't the problem. It's also hard to see the rookie QB becoming part of the solution though after New Orleans shipped out Rashid Shaheed and starting left guard Trevor Penning at the trade deadline. The Saints were already down center Erik McCoy and will be without right tackle Taliese Fuaga this week as well, and this could be an offense worth streaming against with DST dart throws the rest of the year. They have a very cushy closing schedule, with only Tampa Bay as a serious contender among their seven fixtures after a Week 11 bye, and a home game against the Jets in Week 16 might end up being a de facto Dante Moore Bowl.
The Panthers would be on the outside looking for a playoff spot if the postseason started this week for some bizarre reason, but at 5-4 and with four wins in their last five, they're still way ahead of expectations. Last week's win at Lambeau was fluky at best – Green Bay out-gained Carolina by more than 100 yards of offense, and the visitors only escaped overtime thanks to a 43-yard FG miss by Brandon McManus – but it counts all the same. Once again Rico Dowdle was the focal point of the offense, getting 25 carries to Bryce Young's 20 pass attempts, and over the last five games the former Cowboy has erupted for 764 scrimmage yards, 6.3 yards per carry and four total TDs. He's become a little banged up in the process, but Chuba Hubbard is a very capable No. 2 option. Young has thrown for more than 200 yards only once all year, back in Week 2, and coach Dave Canales seems content to lean on his running game and defense even though the latter is average at best. The NFC might be too competitive for that formula to earn a wild-card spot though, especially with five likely playoff teams remaining on their schedule, including a Bucs-Seahawks-Bucs closing stretch over the last three weeks.
Key Info
NO injury report: RB Alvin Kamara (questionable, ankle), C Erik McCoy (IR, bicep), RT Taliese Fuaga (out, ankle), EDGE Bryan Bresee (questionable, back)
CAR injury report: WR Tetairoa McMillan (questionable, hamstring), RG Robert Hunt (IR, bicep), RG Chandler Zavala (out, elbow), DE Derrick Brown (questionable, elbow)
Strong lean: TE Juwan Johnson (CAR 32nd in DVOA vs. TE)
Slight lean: WR Xavier Legette (NO 24th in DVOA vs. WR1)
Strong fade: WR Brandin Cooks (CAR second in DVOA vs. WR2)
Slight fade: WR Jalen Coker (NO 12th in DVOA vs. WR3)
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NFL weather report: 10-15 mph wind, 5-15 percent chance of rain
Head-to-head record, last five years: 6-4 NO, average score 22-16 NO, average margin of victory 13 points. The last three meetings at Bank of America Stadium have been decided by a single score, and neither team has scored more than 23 points in any of them (22-14 Panthers in 2022, 20-17 Saints in 2023, 23-22 Panthers in 2024)
The Scoop: Kamara plays but ekes out just 40 yards. Shough throws for less than 200 yards and gets sacked four times, losing a fumble on one that D.J. Wonnum returns to the house. Dowdle picks up 70 yards and a score, while Hubbard adds 50 yards. Young throws for less than 200 yards but does find Ja'Tavion Sanders for a touchdown. Panthers 21-12
N.Y. Giants (+3.5) at Chicago, o/u 47.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
In theory, the Giants have a nice set of triplets in place for the future in Jaxson Dart, Cam Skattebo and Malik Nabers. In the present day however, the latter two are done for the season and the former is running out of viable targets. Dart's produced an impressive 7:1 TD:INT over the last four games while running in a score in each contest, despite the fact that minor Tennessee Williams supporting character Beaux Collins has been his WR3. The backfield is in the hands of Tyrone Tracey and Devin Singletary, which could be worse, and with Dart under center the offense has managed to score at least 20 points in four straight games. It's not the problem. Instead, DC Shane Bowen's defense has averaged more than 400 yards of offense allowed while producing just one takeaway during a three-game losing streak, and the unit's in the bottom six in yards per play allowed and PPG allowed. Maybe someday Dart will have the weapons to climb out of those kinds of holes on a consistent basis, but not in 2025.
At 5-3, the Bears are firmly in the hunt for both the NFC North title or a wild-card spot, but they did little to address their holes at the trade deadline, instead electing to stay the course in Ben Johnson's first season at the helm. Their chances of playing past Week 18 would be a lot better if Caleb Williams were remotely consistent. He somehow went two straight games against below-average defenses (New Orleans and Baltimore) without throwing a TD, then needed a miracle finish just to pull out a win over Cincinnati last week. The combination of D'Andre Swift and rookie Kyle Monangai might give Johnson the kind of backfield that will allow him not to lean so heavily on his second-year QB, and if players like Colston Loveland keep doing things like this after the catch it'll make Williams look a whole lot better. Right now though, the volatility and variance he's delivering are not exactly what NFL coaches are looking for these days. This might also be the first snow game of the season, which could be fun for the skill players on both sides.
Key Info
NYG injury report: RB Cam Skattebo (IR, ankle), WR Malik Nabers (IR, knee), WR Beaux Collins (out, neck), C John Michael Schmitz (out, shin), RT Jermaine Eluemunor (questionable, pectoral), K Graham Gano (out, neck), LB Micah McFadden (IR, foot), LB Darius Muasau (out, ankle), CB Paulson Adebo (out, knee), S Jevon Holland (questionable, knee)
CHI injury report: RB D'Andre Swift (questionable, groin), LB T.J. Edwards (out, hand), CB Jaylon Johnson (IR, groin), CB Kyler Gordon (IR, groin)
Slight lean: RB Tyrone Tracey / Devin Singletary (CHI 25th in rushing DVOA, 27th in passing DVOA vs. RB)
Strong lean: RB D'Andre Swift / Kyle Monangai (NYG 31st in rushing DVOA, 32nd in YPC allowed, 31st in rushing yards per game allowed)
Slight fade: WR Wan'Dale Robinson (CHI eighth in DVOA vs. WR1)
Slight fade: WR Olamide Zaccheaus (NYG seventh in DVOA vs. WR3)
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NFL weather report: temperature in the mid-30s, 10-15 mph wind, 10-20 percent chance of snow
The Scoop: Singletary leads the NYG backfield with 70 yards and a touchdown, while Tracy adds 50 yards. Dart throws for less than 200 yards but does toss a score to Theo Johnson. Swift racks up 100 yards and a TD, while Monangai chips in 50 yards and a touchdown. Williams throws for 210 yards and a score to Odunze. Bears 24-17
Jacksonville (+1.5) at Houston, o/u 38.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
The Jaguars needed overtime and a botched two-point conversion by the Raiders to escape with a win last week, which isn't exactly an inspiring performance, but at 5-3 they're still very much in the AFC playoff picture. Trevor Lawrence ran for two TDs in that game, presumably because he has no healthy pass-catchers left he can trust, so the front office went out and got Jakobi Meyers for him, but the offense is probably still going to be mainly in Travis Etienne's hands from here on out. The RB saw a season-high 22 carries and 27 touches last week, turning them into 115 scrimmage yards, and while he hasn't scored a touchdown since Week 4, Bhayshul Tuten did vulture one at the goal line in Vegas. The defense is below average in yards per play allowed and PPG allowed, and dead last in sacks, but turnovers have kept it afloat, which isn't a reliable way to stay competitive, but it's exciting while it lasts. I have a hard time projecting the Jags for the playoffs when the list of teams chasing them including KC and the Ravens, but weirder things have happened.
Things look a lot bleaker for the 3-5 Texans, especially with C.J. Stroud out due to a concussion suffered on a hit last week that somehow didn't result in a penalty despite the fact that it came well after he'd clearly begun a slide. NFL officiating being absolutely random is nothing new this year, though. Houston's defense has held every opponent but one (the Seahawks in Seattle) to 20 points or less this season, which is why you can't rule out a late-season surge completely, but DeMeco Ryans' crew will probably have to lower the bar even further for a Davis Mills-led offense to have a chance of clearing it, especially while missing the entire right side of its offensive line. Mills wasn't terrible in relief in Week 9, but he didn't lead a drive longer than six plays in the second half against Denver and his last six possessions ended in punts. The Jags likely won't be as stingy as the Broncos, but the last time Mills threw a touchdown in an NFL game was in Week 16 of 2023, and he's attempted 71 passes across seven appearances since then.
Key Info
JAC injury report: WR Brian Thomas (out, ankle), WR/CB Travis Hunter (IR, knee), TE Brenton Strange (IR, quadricep), TE Hunter Long (out, hip), LG Ezra Cleveland (out, knee),CB Jourdan Lewis (out, neck), S Eric Murray (IR, neck)
HOU injury report: QB C.J. Stroud (out, concussion), RB Joe Mixon (NFI, foot), WR Tank Dell (PUP, knee), RG Ed Ingram (out, knee), RT Tytus Howard (out, concussion), K Ka'imi Fairbairn (out, quadricep), CB Jalen Pitre (out, concussion)
Slight lean: WR Parker Washington (HOU 20th in receiving yards per game allowed to WR2s)
Slight lean: TE Dalton Schultz (JAC 25th in DVOA vs. TE)
Strong fade: QB Trevor Lawrence (HOU first in passing DVOA, t-second in TD passes allowed, third in passing yards allowed)
Strong fade: WR Christian Kirk (JAC first in DVOA vs. WR2)
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NFL weather report: indoors
Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 8-3 HOU, average score 23-19 HOU, average margin of victory 11 points. The Jaguars won the first meeting this season 17-10 in Week 3, their first home win in this rivalry since 2017
The Scoop: Etienne jets for 100 combined yards and a TD. Lawrence throws for less than 200 yards but does find Washington for a score. Woody Marks leads the HOU backfield with 70 yards and a touchdown, while Nick Chubb adds 40 yards. Mills throws for less than 200 yards and does hit Nico Collins for a TD, but he also gets picked off twice. Jaguars 20-17
Buffalo at Miami (+9.5), o/u 50.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
The Bills have looked more like themselves since their bye, stomping the Panthers then getting their usual regular-season win over Kansas City while topping 400 yards of offense in each game and compiling a plus-4 turnover differential. Josh Allen produced three TDs in each game – one passing, two rushing each time – against zero turnovers with a 77.8 percent completion rate and 9.7 YPA, numbers which may have helped convince the front office he didn't need another receiver despite the desperate cries of the media. Dalton Kincaid is arguably his most dangerous downfield option right now – he has yet to see more than six targets in a game this season, but he's topped 100 receiving yards in two of his last three contests. James Cook has been the real engine of the offense though, amassing a massive 330 rushing yards and two TDs since the bye. How much of a threat Buffalo actually is for a Super Bowl berth will depend on the defense, and the lack of activity at the trade deadline on that side of the ball is a little less excusable. Rookie corner Maxwell Hairston is looking like a keeper, and while the shorthanded front seven rallied for a big performance against KC, the loss of Ed Oliver is going to loom large over a run defense that has struggled badly without him. I suspect the plan is just for Allen to force the other team to throw it to keep up, so the run defense won't matter, but that's easier said than done in the playoffs.
The Dolphins didn't completely clear the decks at the trade deadline, because I guess they don't want to give Mike McDaniel any excuses when they fire him in the offseason. The team's lost four of its last five, committing at least three giveaways in each of the last three losses, and the pieces on offense just don't seem to fit together any more. Tua Tagovailoa is still capable of an occasional big game, even with only Jaylen Waddle as a reliable downfield threat, while De'Von Achane has remained dangerous in the backfield and has seen huge target volume with Tua not really having any better options. DC Anthony Weaver's unit isn't good at anything though, and while Miami has had a smidge more success against Buffalo in south Florida than they do in upstate New York, this is still one of the more lopsided "rivalries" in the NFL right now.
Key Info
BUF injury report: WR Joshua Palmer (questionable, knee), K Tyler Bass (IR, hip), EDGE A.J. Epenesa (out, concussion), DE Michael Hoecht (IR, Achilles), DT Ed Oliver (IR, bicep), CB Christian Benford (questionable, groin), CB Taron Johnson (questionable, groin)
MIA injury report: RB Ollie Gordon (questionable, ankle), WR Tyreek Hill (IR, knee), TE Darren Waller (IR, pectoral), TE Julian Hill (questionable, ankle), LG Liam Eichenberg (PUP, undisclosed), RT Austin Jackson (IR, toe), K Jason Sanders (IR, hip), EDGE Chop Robinson (questionable, concussion), EDGE Bradley Chubb (questionable, foot), CB Storm Duck (IR, knee), CB Rasul Douglas (questionable, foot), CB Kader Kohou (IR, knee), S Ashtyn Davis (questionable, quadricep)
Slight lean: RB James Cook (MIA 28th in YPC allowed, 30th in rushing yards per game allowed, 31st in passing DVOA vs. RB)
Strong lean: RB De'Von Achane (BUF 30th in rushing DVOA, 31st in YPC allowed, 28th in rushing yards per game allowed, 31st in rushing TDs allowed to RBs)
Slight fade: WR Keon Coleman (MIA second in receptions per game allowed to WR2s)
Slight fade: WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (BUF eighth in DVOA vs. WR2)
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NFL weather report: 5-15 percent chance of rain
Head-to-head record, last five-plus years including playoffs: 11-1 BUF, average score 33-20 BUF, average margin of victory 13 points. BUF has scored at least 30 points in six of the last seven meetings in this rivalry
The Scoop: Cook surges for 150 combined yards and two scores. Allen throws for 250 yards and two TDs, one each to Kincaid and Khalil Shakir. Achane cobbles together 100 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. Tagovailoa throws for less than 200 yards but does find Waddle for a score. Bills 31-20
Baltimore at Minnesota (+4), o/u 48.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Ah, it's one of my favorite irregular clashes – the Bruise Bowl, where the purple and black Ravens take on the purple and fading-into-yellow (OK, fine, gold) Vikings. Baltimore has won two straight games since its bye, and DC Zach Orr might have used the time wisely – Roquan Smith and company allowed a total of 22 points in victories over Chicago and Miami while producing four takeaways. Lamar Jackson returned from his hamstring injury last week to have one of those ridiculous ultra-efficient Lamar games, tossing four TDs on just 23 attempts with 204 passing yards, and it seems fair to say he's healthy. Derrick Henry also kept rolling in Week 9, and over the last three games he's rumbled for 312 rushing yards and two touchdowns with a 4.9 YPC. The Ravens are still only 3-5, but if the defense is at least competent again, they might have just enough time (and a soft enough closing slate) to make a playoff push, and even catch the 5-3 Steelers for the AFC North title.
The Vikings are coming off a big win over the Lions to even their record at 4-4, but that still leaves Minny in the NFC North cellar. J.J. McCarthy returned from a five-game absence and produced three TDs in the win, but his 56.0 percent completion rate and 5.7 YPA were far from exciting. Aaron Jones also got hurt again, which might leave the backfield in the hands of Jordan Mason, which hasn't seemed like a great idea since about Week 3 or so (he's got a 3.5 YPC in the last five contests). Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson provide McCarthy with some strong support, but the young QB hasn't really shown he knows what to do with them yet. The defense also hasn't been meeting expectations, and while the Vikes have had a tough run of opponents since their Week 6 bye, the team's still given up nearly 30 points a game over those three weeks. Their closing schedule is also brutal, at least when it comes to the offenses they'll be facing – maybe the Commanders will provide a respite if Jayden Daniels is still out in Week 14, and the Giants in Week 16 are basically just Jaxson Dart and the Pips at this point, but otherwise it's a murderer's row of teams in the top seven in yards per play, and top 10(-ish... the Packers are currently 11th) in PPG.
Key Info
BAL injury report: EDGE Nnamdi Madubuike (IR, neck)
MIN injury report: QB Carson Wentz (IR, shoulder), RB Aaron Jones (questionable, shoulder), C Ryan Kelly (IR, concussion), CB Theo Jackson (questionable, concussion)
Slight lean: WR Zay Flowers (MIN 29th in DVOA vs. WR1)
Slight lean: WR Justin Jefferson (BAL 27th in DVOA vs. WR1)
Slight fade: RB Justice Hill (MIN fifth in passing DVOA vs. RB)
Slight fade: WR Jordan Addison (BAL t-eighth in receptions per game allowed to WR2s)
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NFL weather report: indoors
The Scoop: Henry powers his way to 130 yards and a touchdown. Jackson throws for 210 yards and two TDs, hitting Flowers and Mark Andrews. Mason manages 70 yards. McCarthy throws for under 200 yards but does connect with Jefferson and Addison for touchdowns. Myles Price also returns a kickoff to the house, but it's not enough. Ravens 27-21
Cleveland at N.Y. Jets (+2.5), o/u 37.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
The Browns come out of their bye basically intact after not dealing any key pieces at the trade deadline, although other than maybe David Njoku or a seismic Myles Garrett move, it's not like they had a lot of talent to ship out. The offense under rookie QB Dillon Gabriel remains abysmal, with only Quinshon Judkins as a bright spot. Cleveland scored 17 points or less in all but one game in the first half, while the team hasn't netted 200 passing yards (once you factor in sacks) since Week 2. Garrett and the defense have done what they can, generating multiple takeaways in three of the team's last four games and sitting in the top 10 in yards per play allowed and total sacks, but most weeks it's nowhere near enough. The fact that things are getting so bad on the offensive (in both senses) side of the ball that Deshaun Watson might actually seem like a viable option if he gets healthy should be very, very alarming to everyone in the organization, but with games yet to come against the Raiders and Titans after this one, it's entirely possible the Browns wind up with four or five wins and shut out of the premium QB part of next year's draft. Well, no worries. Their new stadium won't open until 2029, and there's no sense trying to be competitive before then, right?
While the Jets were already at a coaching disadvantage heading into this one, they helpfully leveled out the talent imbalance too by gutting their defense at the trade deadline. Not only are Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams gone, they're also benching Quincy Williams, replacing the veterans with, umm, some guys. I know "we were losing with these players, and we can lose without them!" is the kind of argument that has some appeal to embittered fandom, but it's the kind of logic that just ensures you never have players good enough to stop the losing. Aaron Glenn hasn't yet benched Justin Fields, so I assume he's still starting at quarterback, and it's not like Tyrod Taylor moves the needle. I'm not sure anyone could at this point. This is a one-win team whose sole victory came by one point against one of the worst defenses in history, and the Jets' next true QB1 is presumably in college right now.
Key Info
CLE injury report: WR Isaiah Bond (out, foot), WR Cedric Tillman (IR, hamstring), TE Harold Fannin (questionable, hamstring), LT Dawand Jones (IR, knee), LB Carson Schwesinger (questionable, ankle), LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (PUP, neck)
NYJ injury report: RB Braelon Allen (IR, knee), WR Garrett Wilson (questionable, knee), RG Alijah Vera-Tucker (IR, tricep), LB Francisco Mauigoa (questionable, concussion)
Strong lean: WR Gage Larvadain (NYJ 31st in DVOA vs. WR2)
Strong lean: WR Tyler Johnson (CLE 31st in DVOA vs. WR3)
Slight fade: WR Jamari Thrash (NYJ t-eighth in receptions per game allowed to WR3s)
Strong fade: RB Breece Hall (CLE first in rushing DVOA, second in YPC allowed, t-fourth in rushing TDs allowed to RBs)
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NFL weather report: 35-45 percent chance of rain
The Scoop: Judkins gains 80 yards and a TD. Gabriel throws for less than 200 yards and finds Jerry Jeudy for a touchdown. Hall grinds out 60 yards. Fields throws for less than 200 yards as well but hits Mason Taylor for one score and runs in another. Jets 20-14
New England (+2.5) at Tampa Bay, o/u 48.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Too bad this game isn't on Fox, so we can all spend three hours listening to Tom Brady tell us how great he was with both teams. The Patriots have reeled off six straight wins under Drake Maye to stay atop the AFC East – Brady won eight straight to begin the 2019 season, his final one in New England, which was the last time the team won the division, and he knew he could rely on Julian to get open – and while the Bills were the only quality opponent they had during that stretch, a win's a win. With Rhamondre Stevenson sidelined, TreVeyon Henderson is getting a chance to look like a guy worth a second-round pick, racking up 162 scrimmage yards over the last two weeks, but he still had to watch undrafted second-year back Terrell Jennings swoop in for a TD near the goal line. It was DeMario Douglas' turn to pop as a pass-catcher last week as well, after Mack Hollins had done so the week before, and Kayshon Boutte a couple weeks before that. Maye's the only truly reliable part of this offense, but that doesn't figure to change any time soon. Buffalo in Week 5 was the last opponent to record over 300 yards of offense against DC Terrell Williams' crew, but New England's stingy showing on the scoreboard (tied for fifth in PPG) seems like something of a mirage given their mediocre rankings elsewhere. This looks like a playoff team, but a division title will almost certainly hinge on how they do in the rematch with the Bills in Week 15.
The Bucs come out of their bye getting a little unexpected pressure in the NFC South from the Panthers, but they're still the favorites to take the crown for a fifth straight season – a streak that Brady of course started in 2021, the year after he won a Super Bowl for them. Baker Mayfield's numbers have sagged a bit the last few games, both due to injuries in his receiving corps and some game scripts that weren't pass-friendly, and the week off wasn't enough for Chris Godwin to finally get back to 100 percent. If it was enough time for Emeka Egbuka to get right though, the offense should be fine. Todd Bowles' defense has been showing its teeth, racking up multiple takeaways in four straight games, and it's also crept into the top 10 in sacks on the year. Tampa's another team that was curiously quiet at the trade deadline, but given their various injuries on both sides of the ball, maybe getting guys back is what the front office is counting on when it comes to reinforcements.
Key Info
NE injury report: RB Rhamondre Stevenson (out, toe), WR Kayshon Boutte (out, hamstring), LB Christian Elliss (out, hip)
TB injury report: RB Bucky Irving (out, foot), WR Chris Godwin (out, lower leg), WR Mike Evans (IR, collarbone), WR Jalen McMillan (IR, neck), RG Cody Mauch (IR, knee), RG Luke Haggard (questionable, shoulder), RT Luke Goedeke (IR, foot), EDGE Calijah Kancey (IR, pectoral), EDGE Haason Reddick (out, ankle)
Slight lean: RB TreVeyon Henderson (TB 29th in passing DVOA vs. RB)
Slight lean: WR Emeka Egbuka (NE 30th in DVOA vs. WR1)
Slight fade: WR Stefon Diggs (TB fourth in DVOA vs. WR1)
Slight fade: TE Cade Otton (NE ninth in DVOA vs. TE)
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NFL weather report: 1-10 percent chance of rain
The Scoop: Henderson leads the NE backfield with 100 combined yards and a receiving score, while Jennings vultures another short touchdown. Maye throws for 240 yards and a second TD to Hunter Henry. Rachaad White puts together 80 yards. Mayfield throws for 230 yards and two scores, hitting Egbuka and Sterling Shepard. Patriots 24-23
LATE SUNDAY
Arizona (+6.5) at Seattle, o/u 45.0 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST
With the rest of the NFC West showing no signs of slowing down, the Cardinals decided last week's win over the Cowboys wasn't enough to change the trajectory of the season. As a result, they finally placed Kyler Murray for an injury he suffered back in Week 5 and handed the offense over to Jacoby Brissett. The veteran backup's numbers this season haven't been any worse than Murray's, although so far he hasn't had any more luck building consistent chemistry with Marvin Harrison than his predecessor. Trey Benson should be back soon to strengthen the running attack, but in the meantime Bam Knight and Emari Demercado will continue to hold down the fort. DC Nick Rallis' crew has been hovering between average and OK all season, and while it's not the problem for Arizona, it's also not part of the solution. Really, other than Trey McBride, this roster just doesn't have anyone who raises the team's ceiling, although DT Walter Nolen showed flashes of that potential in his NFL debut last week.
One of the teams the Cards have resigned themselves to not catching this season is the Seahawks. Winners of three straight, Seattle has ridden Sam Darnold's career resurgence to the top of the division, with last week's perfect first half against the Commanders putting an exclamation mark on a fantastic first half of the campaign. That he's had so much success with only Jaxon Smith-Njigba as a reliable target is even more remarkable, and the front office tried to fix that by bringing in Rashid Shaheed at the trade deadline. Those two may be Darnold's only healthy wideouts Sunday, so Shaheed could be thrown right into the deep end, although the timing is ideal for a splashy debut with his new team as he'll be facing an Arizona secondary arguably missing its four most talented cornerbacks. Mike Macdonald's defense has been just as impressive as Darnold. sitting in the top five in PPG allowed, yards per play allowed, sacks, QB rating against, YPC allowed, rushing yards per game allowed... this is an elite defense nearly across the board, and the Seahawks are a true threat to not only win the toughest division in the league, but also seize a first-round bye in the postseason.
Key Info
ARI injury report: QB Kyler Murray (IR, foot), RB Trey Benson (IR, knee), RB James Conner (IR, foot), RG Will Hernandez (questionable, knee), LB Mack Wilson (out, ribs), CB Will Johnson (out, back), CB Max Melton (out, concussion), CB Sean Murphy-Bunting (NFI, knee), CB Starling Thomas (IR, knee)
SEA injury report: WR Cooper Kupp (questionable, hamstring), WR Tory Horton (doubtful, groin), TE AJ Barner (questionable, calf), RG Christian Haynes (IR, pectoral), LB Ernest Jones (doubtful, knee), CB Josh Jobe (out, concussion), S Julian Love (IR, hamstring)
Slight lean: TE Trey McBride (SEA 24th in DVOA vs. TE)
Slight lean: WR Cooper Kupp (ARI 26th in DVOA vs. WR3)
Strong fade: RB Bam Knight / Emari Demercado (SEA second in rushing DVOA, first in YPC allowed, second in rushing yards per game allowed)
Slight fade: WR Rashid Shaheed (ARI sixth in DVOA vs. WR2)
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NFL weather report: 60-70 percent chance of rain
Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 9-2 SEA, average score 25-20 SEA, average margin of victory eight points. SEA has won eight straight meetings by an average score of 25-17
The Scoop: Demercado leads the ARI backfield with 60 yards, while Knight gets into the end zone. Brissett throws for 230 yards and two touchdowns, both to McBride. Kenneth Walker leads the SEA backfield with 80 yards and a score. Darnold throws for 280 yards and three TDs, two to JSN (who tops 100 yards) and one to Elijah Arroyo. Seahawks 31-24
L.A. Rams at San Francisco (+4), o/u 49.5 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST
The Rams have won three straight since losing the first meeting of the season in this NFC West rivalry, getting fat and sassy on the likes of the Jags and Saints (69-17 combined score). Matthew Stafford threw nine TDs in those two wins, the highest two-game total of his career – not bad for a 37-year-old who was supposed to have a bad back. Davante Adams caught five of them, and secondaries are beginning to realize just how difficult it is to cover him and Puka Nacua at the same time. The defense has also been padding its resume, and the Rams sit second in PPG allowed, fifth in yards per play allowed and tied for third in sacks. Sean McVay's squad is headed into its toughest stretch of the season though, facing Seattle and Tampa Bay the next two weeks, so we could see some separation at the top of the division between the three six-win teams.
How the 49ers have six wins, I have no idea. Injuries keep hammering the roster, and they just keep finding ways to gut it out. The latest loss is 2025 first-round pick Mykel Williams, stripping another pass rusher out of the front seven. San Francisco has gotten enough from Mac Jones at QB that they will be as patient as they need to be with Brock Purdy's recovery, and Christian McCaffrey just keeps chugging along – he's failed to hit for 100-plus scrimmage yards only once all season – but I'm not sure how many more bodies DC Robert Saleh's unit can lose and still stay functional. The Niners are already in the bottom half of the league in yards per play allowed and QB ratings against, and bottom five in sacks and takeaways (well, tied for fifth-worst). Maybe the offense can keep the team afloat, but of the three teams atop the NFC West right now, the 49ers' success is the most fragile.
Key Info
LAR injury report: WR Tutu Atwell (IR, hamstring), WR Jordan Whittington (questionable, back), CB Ahkello Witherspoon (IR, collarbone)
SF injury report: QB Brock Purdy (questionable, toe), WR Ricky Pearsall (out, knee), WR Brandon Aiyuk (PUP, knee), LG Ben Bartch (IR, ankle), EDGE Nick Bosa (IR, knee), EDGE Mykel Williams (out, knee), DT Alfred Collins (questionable, hip), LB Fred Warner (IR, ankle), LB Dee Winters (questionable, knee), LB Tatum Bethune (questionable, thigh)
Slight lean: WR Konata Mumpfield (SF 30th in DVOA vs. WR3)
Slight lean: WR Jauan Jennings (LAR 25th in DVOA vs. WR1)
Slight fade: WR Puka Nacua (SF ninth in DVOA vs. WR1)
Slight fade: TE George Kittle (LAR fourth in DVOA vs. TE)
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NFL weather report: 20-30 percent chance of rain
Head-to-head record, last five-plus years including playoffs: 8-4 SF, average score 24-18 SF, average margin of victory eight points. The Rams had won three straight meetings prior to a 26-23 victory for the 49ers in Week 5, a game that saw both teams generate more than 400 yards of offense, but LA lose the turnover battle 2-0
The Scoop: Kyren Williams collects 90 yards and a TD. Stafford throws for 290 yards and three scores, one each to Nacua, Adams and Tyler Higbee. McCaffrey gets held to 70 yards. Jones throws for less than 200 yards but does find Jennings and Kendrick Bourne for touchdowns. Rams 28-20
Detroit at Washington (+9), o/u 49.5 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST
The Lions dropped a tough one to the Vikings last week, when they couldn't seem to play Lions football in a 27-24 loss. Detroit's now 1-2 in the NFC North, which could come back to haunt them as a tiebreaker if the division race comes down to the wire. Jared Goff has thrown multiple TDs in four of the last five games while completing 71.0 percent of his passes with an 8.0 YPA, but somehow the team's only 3-2 over that stretch. It's not clear what's keeping the Lions from stepping on the gas – the defense has been at worst solid, Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery are still a potent duo in the backfield, Amon-Ra St. Brown is on pace for career-best receptions and TD numbers... and yet, they're 5-3. They're schedule doesn't get any easier in the second half either. Maybe they just need a good Dan Campbell halftime speech to wake them up.
It's pretty obvious what's gone wrong for the Commanders this season, though. Jayden Daniels has missed three games, and is set to miss more after dislocating his non-throwing elbow in gruesome fashion last week. Terry McLaurin's only been healthy enough to play four games, and he sat out about half of two of them. Austin Ekeler, Noah Brown, Dorance Armstrong, Marshon Lattimore... the injuries have hit all over the roster, and only the 49ers can claim to have had it worse. Of course, the 49ers also have a winning record. The Commanders have lost four straight to drop to 3-6, and the defense is teetering on the edge of complete collapse, surrendering at least 28 points and 400 yards of offense in three straight games. This might still be a dangerous opponent with Daniels under center, but Marcus Mariota just doesn't bring the same aura to the field.
Key Info
DET injury report: LT Taylor Decker (questionable, shoulder), LG Christian Mahogany (IR, leg), CB D.J. Reed (IR, hamstring), S Kerby Joseph (out, knee)
WAS injury report: QB Jayden Daniels (out, elbow), RB Austin Ekeler (IR, Achilles), WR Terry McLaurin (out, quadricep), WR Noah Brown (IR, groin), WR Luke McCaffrey (IR, collarbone), EDGE Dorance Armstrong (IR, knee), EDGE Deatrich Wise (IR, quadricep), CB Marshon Lattimore (IR, knee), S Will Harris (IR, lower leg), S Quan Martin (questionable, hamstring)
Slight lean: WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (WAS 26th in DVOA vs. WR1)
Slight lean: WR Deebo Samuel (DET 28th in DVOA vs. WR1)
No fades for DET, as the WAS defense slips into the 'bad at everything' zone
Slight fade: QB Marcus Mariota (DET second in passing DVOA)
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NFL weather report: 7-11 mph wind, 15-25 percent chance of rain
The Scoop: Gibbs leads the DET backfield with 80 yards, while Montgomery punches in a score. Goff throws for 270 yards and three TDs, two to ARSB (who tops 100 yards) and one to Jameson Williams. Jacory Croskey-Merritt leads the WAS backfield with 70 yards and a touchdown, while Jeremy McNichols adds 50 yards. Mariota throws for under 200 yards but tosses a TD to Samuel while running in a score of his own. Lions 28-24
SUNDAY NIGHT
Pittsburgh (+3) at L.A. Chargers, o/u 45.0 – Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EST
The Steelers remain atop the AFC North at 5-3, thanks to being the only team in the division above .500. Aaron Rodgers has done exactly what he was brought in to do, which is provide the offense with a solid floor – only Seattle has held the team below 21 points so far this season – but the future Hall of Famer hasn't done much to repair the ceiling, as the only teams Pittsburgh has reached 30 points against have been the Jets and Bengals, and Rodgers has yet to lead his new squad to 400 yards of offense in a game. Instead, the volatility has shifted to the defense. The Steelers do just great when they generate an absurd amount of takeaways (six last week in a win over the Colts, or five when the got past the Pats in Week 3). When they can't, things can get ugly, such as in back-to-back losses to Cincy and Green Bay when the they coughed up a combined 924 yards and 68 points. The Ravens are showing signs of rising from the dead, so that cushion for the division lead could evaporate quickly if DC Teryl Austin can't get things figured out. In the meantime, Rodgers, DK Metcalf and the Three Muskatightends will simply have to keep trying to outscore the defense's mistakes.
At 6-3, the Chargers remain a game back of the Broncos and a game ahead of KC in the AFC West, but the offense's success still seems to be hanging by a thread. With starting tackles Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt now lost for the year, the Bolts traded for Trevor Penning, who'd lost his tackle job in New Orleans and was being used at guard. That covers one spot, but now Bobby Hart is banged up too, so Justin Herbert will once again be protected on the edge by a third-stringer. I'm sure that won't be too much of a problem against T.J. Watt. Herbert's been fairly incredible under fire as he heads towards what might be his best statistical season since 2021, with his two top targets du jour being Ladd McConkey and rookie tight end Oronde Gadsden, but OC Greg Roman would really, really like Omarion Hamption to get healthy to supply the running game with a jolt. That apparently won't happen until after a Week 12 bye though, so Kimani Vidal will keep plugging the hole as best he can.
Key Info
PIT injury report: LG Isaac Seumalo (out, pectoral), LB Cole Holcomb (out, illness), S DeShon Elliott (IR, knee)
LAC injury report: RB Omarion Hampton (IR, ankle), RB Najee Harris (IR, Achilles), RB Hassan Haskins (IR, hamstring), LT Rashawn Slater (IR, knee), RT Joe Alt (IR, ankle), RT Bobby Hart (out, knee), CB Tarheeb Still (doubtful, knee)
Slight lean: TE Pat Freiermuth / Jonnu Smith / Darnell Washington (LAC 26th in DVOA vs. TE)
Strong lean: WR Ladd McConkey (PIT 32nd in receptions and receiving yards per game allowed to WR1s)
Slight fade: WR Calvin Austin (fourth in DVOA vs. WR2)
Slight fade: WR Quentin Johnston (PIT third in DVOA vs. WR2)
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NFL weather report: indoors
The Scoop: Jaylen Warren pops for 100 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. Rodgers throws for 210 yards and a TD to Metcalf. Vidal has one of his good games, producing 90 yards and a score. Herbert throws for 220 yards and two touchdowns, one each to McConkey and Gadsden. Chargers 27-23
THURSDAY NIGHT
Las Vegas (+9.5) at Denver, o/u 42.5 – Thursday, 8:15 p.m. EST
The Raiders didn't conduct a full fire sale at the trade deadline the way the Jets did, but they did respect Jakobi Meyers' wishes and ship him to a contender (or at least, to the Jaguars). At 2-6, the team has its sights set firmly on a top pick in 2026 and a potential new franchise QB, but in the meantime Geno Smith will have Brock Bowers to throw to, and not a whole lot else. Las Vegas has by far the weakest WR room in the league — that might have been debatable with Meyers around, but it's indisputable now. Tre Tucker, a 2023 third-round pick who set career highs with 47-539-3 last season, and veteran retread Tyler Lockett, who looks like an old 33, will duke it out for the right to be the nominal No. 1 wideout, while rookies Jack Bech and Dont'e Thornton will fight to prove they deserve a consistent spot in the game plan, a bar neither could clear in Week 9. That left Bowers, fully healthy for the first time since the Raiders' opener, to hoover up 13 targets en route to a massive 12-127-3 performance that was nearly enough to steal a win over the Jags. Given the state of the WR corps, Pete Carroll and OC Chip Kelly could lean even more heavily on two-TE sets with Michael Mayer — Vegas is 12th in the league in running 12 personnel (27.2 percent) coming into Thursday. The defense has managed to be below average rather than truly awful, so they'll get a few chances to play spoiler down the stretch if the offense can find some consistency now that Bowers is all the way back.
Patrick Surtain will miss a second consecutive game for the Broncos this week, but they (barely) survived without him in Houston, and if they had a pick an opponent to face to be missing the best cornerback in the NFL, the Raiders would probably be it. Bo Nix has led Denver to six consecutive wins and the top of the AFC West, one game ahead of the Chargers and two ahead of KC, so it's a little surprisingly the front office didn't add any reinforcements at the deadline. Nix has produced 10 touchdowns in the last three games (eight passing, two rushing), and while his numbers are down from his rookie season and he's still prone to an occasional gunslinger's INT, he's proving to be pretty clutch — during the winning streak, the Broncos have outscored the opposition 86-20 in the fourth quarter. J.K. Dobbins is chewing up yardage between the 20s while rookie RJ Harvey provides some splash plays, and Courtland Sutton and Troy Franklin have been an effective one-two punch downfield. DC Vance Joseph's defense has been the real star of the show, though. Denver's first in yards per play allowed, fourth in points per game allowed, third in QB rating against and first by a mile in sacks with 40 through nine games, with Detroit second at 28 in eight.
Key Info
LV injury report: LT Kolton Miller (IR, ankle), S Isaiah Pola-Mao (questionable, hip)
DEN injury report: WR Marvin Mims (out, concussion), LG Ben Powers (IR, bicep), CB Patrick Surtain (out, pectoral)
Slight lean: WR Tyler Lockett (DEN 28th in receiving yards per game allowed to WR2s)
Slight lean: WR Troy Franklin (LV 27th in DVOA vs. WR2)
Slight fade: RB Ashton Jeanty (DEN third in rushing DVOA, fourth in YPC allowed, eighth in rushing yards per game allowed)
Slight fade: WR Pat Bryant (LV fifth in DVOA vs. WR3)
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NFL weather report: 1-10 percent chance of rain
Head-to-head record, last five years: 8-2 LV, average score 26-21 LV, average margin of victory 10 points. The Raiders won the first eight meetings between the teams after relocating to Vegas in 2020, but the Broncos swept the season series in 2024 by a combined score of 63-37. To put that another way, Nix is 2-0 against the Raiders with a 103.5 QB rating and five total TDs (four passing, one rushing) against zero turnovers.
The Scoop: Jeanty manages 50 yards. Smith throws for less than 200 yards but finds Bowers for a touchdown. Dobbins churns out 80 yards and a TD. Nix throws for 230 yards and two scores, one each to Franklin and Sutton. Broncos 27-10
Last week's record: 8-6, 4-10 ATS, 5-9 o/u
2025 record: 87-47-1 (.649), 70-63-2 ATS (.526), 63-71-1 o/u (.470)
