This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
NFL Week 13 Line Movement Breakdown
The goal of this article is to look at the key line moves for the week and what they mean in terms of betting. Key numbers in the NFL to watch for are 3, 7, 6, 14, and 10. When a line crosses through one of these, it is a significant move that warrants attention.
Now that we have 12 weeks in the books, some teams are already eliminated from the playoff race. There are no games with a point spread higher than nine points, with only two at seven or higher. Only four games have a total of 48 or higher which continues to signify the low scores we have seen all year.
The status of a team's quarterback is having a significant impact on line movement as we saw in several games last week.
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Latest NFL Week 13 Odds
For more, take a look at NFL Week 13 odds.
Buffalo Bills (-5.5) @ New England Patriots O/U 45.5
Pittsburgh Steeles @ Atlanta Falcons (-1.5) O/U 42.0
Denver Broncos @ Baltimore Ravens (-7.0) O/U 40.5
Green Bay Packers (-2.5) @ Chicago Bears O/U 44.0
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Detroit Lions (-1.0) O/U 49.5
Cleveland Browns (-6.0) @ Houston Texans O/U 44.5
New York Jets @ Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) O/U 41.5
Washington Commanders (-1.0) @ New York Giants O/U 42.0
Tennessee Titans @ Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) O/U 44.5
Seattle Seahawks (-3.0) @ Los Angeles Rams O/U 42.5
Miami Dolphins @ San Francisco 49ers (-4.5) O/U 48.0
Kansas City Chiefs (-3.0) @ Cincinnati Bengals O/U 51.0
Los Angeles Chargers (-3.0) @ Las Vegas Raiders O/U 48.0
Indianapolis Colts @ Dallas Cowboys (-8.5) O/U 43.5
New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5) O/U 42.5
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NFL Week 13 Line Movement: Indianapolis Colts at Dallas Cowboys
The opening line was Cowboys -2.5 and it has moved all the way to Cowboys -10.0. I would guess that 80 percent of this line move is coming from the Colts' side and their disappointing season. If the Colts were at expectations, the line would be Cowboys -3.5 or -4.0 . Indianapolis was at +9 for this game going into Monday night, but a loss at home to the Steelers moved the line even further.
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NFL Week 13 Line Movement: Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens
The opening line was Ravens -2.5 and has moved to Ravens -7.0. I'm surprised this number is just -7 and I think we could see some major steam coming to push it close to -9.0 or -9.5. The Broncos have been the most disappointing team in football and just lost to the Panthers 23-10. They have lost their last seven out of eight games and setting records for the lowest points per game on offense. The Ravens are still 7-4 tied with the Bengals for 1st place in the AFC North so they need this game. Even coming off a tough road loss to the Jaguars, the Ravens should blow the doors off the Broncos.
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NFL Week 13 Line Movement: Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans
This line opened Browns -10 and is now Browns -6. A lot of this movement came after the Deshaun Watson news. It is unusual that you would see such a strong road favorite drop this much, but the Browns have been without Watson who is now back. The Texans are the worst team in the NFL and coming off a 30-15 loss to the Dolphins in a game that was not really all that close. The Texans have lost six in a row and went to backup quarterback Kyle Allen so they have nothing to play for. The Browns still have hopes of making a playoff run with Watson back so I can see some momentum coming back on the Browns and pushing the line to -7 by kickoff.
NFL Week 13 Line Movement: Tennessee Titans at Philadelphia Eagles
As with every Eagles game, the line has moved significantly on them as this opened Eagles -1.0 in the summer moved to -2.0, and is now -6.5. The Eagles were just -6.5 against the Packers and covered, so the adjustment has been made as the Titans are a much better opponent. The Titans should be live here as they have played close games all year and come off a tough loss to the Bengals. I can see the Eagles winning the game, but not covering the -6.5.
NFL Week 13 Line Movement: Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams
I had to check this line twice to make sure it was correct. This game opened Rams -9.5 in the summer and is now Seahawks -3.5 for a whopping 13-point line move. There is not much more that can go wrong for the Rams who started third-string quarterback Bryce Perkins in their loss to the Chiefs 26-10. While the Seahawks have overachieved all year and come off a tough overtime loss at home to the Raiders 40-34. The Seahawks need this game to stay close in the NFC West and playoff race. Laying more than a field goal is tough in this landscape, especially in a division game on the road, but I do not see how the Rams win any football games right now.
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