NFL Picks: Week 15 Early Line Movement and Betting Trends

NFL Picks: Week 15 Early Line Movement and Betting Trends

This article is part of our NFL Picks series.

NFL Week 15 Line Movement Breakdown

The goal of this article is to look at the key line moves for the week and what they mean in terms of betting. Key numbers in the NFL to watch for are 3, 7, 6, 14, and 10. When a line crosses through one of these, it is a significant move that warrants attention. 

The playoff picture got more cloudy in Week 14 as several 5-8 teams (Panthers, Jaguars, Lions) have gotten hot and have the potential of still making the postseason with a run in the last four weeks. This will have an impact on the lines as there will be more teams with the motivation to compete. There are four teams that are more than a touchdown favorite in Week 15 (Bills, Chiefs, Eagles, Packers).

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Latest NFL Week 15 Odds

For more, take a look at NFL Week 15 odds.

San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) at Seattle Seahawks O/U 43.5 

Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings (-4.5) O/U 47.5

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (-3.0) O/U 38.5

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-7.5) O/U 45.5

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-4.0) O/U 43.0

Pittsburgh Steelers at Carolina Panthers (-2.5) O/U 38.5

Philadelphia Eagles (-9.0) at Chicago Bears O/U 49.0

Kansas City Chiefs (-14) at Houston Texans O/U 49.0

Dallas Cowboys (-5.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars O/U 48.0

Detroit Lions at New York Jets (-1.5) O/U 45.5

Arizona Cardinals (-1.0) at Denver Broncos O/U 39.0

New England Patriots at Las Vegas Raiders (-1.0) O/U 44.5

Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Chargers (-3.0) O/U 46.5

Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers O/U 42.5

New York Giants at Washington Commanders (-4.5) O/U 40.5

Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers (-8.0) O/U 40.5

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NFL Week 15 Line Movement: Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears

This line opened Eagles -2.5 in the summer and has steadily climbed to -9.0 as the Eagles are sitting at 12-1 and the Bears are 3-10. The number moved to -3.0, then -4.5, and hit -7.5 last Sunday. The Eagles huge win over the Giants 48-22 and the Bears were on a bye but have the 2nd worst record in the NFL. The Eagles were in a similar spot a few weeks ago against the Colts and barely won 17-16. 

They could be primed for a letdown in this spot with the Bears coming off the bye and the Cowboys game on Christmas Eve next week. When you have a point spread of greater than three points, the hope is the dog can keep the game close. With Bears quarterback Justin Fields, I can see the Bears keeping this game close as the Eagles look ahead to a huge divisional matchup against the Cowboys. Just look at the Chiefs-Broncos last week as a similar type of game in which the Broncos were a nine-point dog at home and found a way to keep it close.

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NFL Week 15 Line Movement: Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans  

The Chiefs opened -10.0 and has moved to -14.0 despite the Texans almost beating the Cowboys outright as 17-point underdogs last week. 14-point road favorites do not happen very often and the Chiefs' records as heavy favorites recently is rather poor. The Texans are the worst team in football so they are not magically going to change into a power team, but these games come down to motivation. The Chiefs are still playing for the top seed in the AFC, but their mistakes on offense and defense let the Broncos hang around last week despite the huge talent disparity. 

The Texans were able to move the ball on the Cowboys defense with Jeff Driskel at quarterback and had a chance to win the game outright. Road favorites of 14 points or higher are just 5-10-1 in their last 16 games according to the Rotowire NFL Betting archive.  

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NFL Week 15 Line Movement: Cincinnati Bengals at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bucs are one of the teams that have seen their opening lines move the most and in the opposite direction. This line opened Bucs -3.0 and has moved 6.5 points to where the Bengals are now -3.5 favorites. The 49ers destroyed the Bucs on national TV last week 35-7 and they are now 6-7 which is a far cry from being a Super Bowl favorite when the season started. The betting public will continue to put their faith and money on Tom Brady despite how badly they have played. 

The Bengals are on a five-game winning streak with a brutal schedule down the stretch and this is the easiest game they have (at New England, Buffalo, and Baltimore at home) so I do not think they will be looking past the Bucs in this spot.  The Bucs are fighting just to try and win the NFC South with a losing record to make the playoffs.

NFL Week 15 Line Movement: Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers

This line has to be one of the biggest head-scratchers of the season as this game with a pick'em when it opened. Both teams have been huge disappointments due to injuries on the Rams side and poor offensive performance on the Packers side. The Packers are now -7.5 home favorites and it is hard to imagine them being favored by this much over any team. 

The Rams had lost six in a row before having a miracle win last Thursday over the Raiders 17-16. The Packers are coming off their bye week and a win at the Bears 28-19. But before that, they had lost seven out of eight games. For as much as the Rams have been ravaged by injuries, this team still plays hard and the Packers being favored more than three points over anyone right now is risky. 

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With the latest NFL odds, weekly NFL picks, NFL futures, and NFL player futures from the best NFL betting sites, RotoWire has your NFL betting needs covered.

For those in Maryland or Ohio, remember that legal sportsbooks have already launched or are nearing launch. Maryland officially launched sports betting on Nov.23 and Ohio is set to launch on New Year's Day of 2023. Stay in the loop on the latest offers in your area with Maryland Betting Promos and Ohio Betting Promos.

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Michael Rathburn
Known as “Rath” in the Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) community, he has helped run operations for two prominent daily fantasy sports startups. Michael has taken his insider knowledge and expertise in daily fantasy sports to the content side. Rath won the 2016 FSWA "Baseball Article of the Year, Online" award and was a finalist for the FSWA Best Baseball Series in 2011.
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