Target Breakdown: WR & TE Usage Report + Week 10 Waivers Preview

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Published on November 5, 2024

Before we get to the usual stuff, it's worth mentioning the pair of WR trades that happened Tuesday morning. Carolina traded Jonathan Mingo and a seventh-round pick to Dallas for a fourth-round pick.... a seemingly obvious overpay. And then the Jets traded Mike Williams to the Steelers for a fifth-round pick. Neither traded player is likely to have fantasy value outside of extremely deep leagues, but in both cases there's some benefit to shaking things up, rather than static nothingness.

The deals are more interesting in terms of how they may impact the WRs former teams. Jalen Coker lost a bunch of snaps to Mingo this past Sunday, so the rookie gets a small boost from Mingo's departure, although it may soon be undone by Adam Thielen's return from IR (which is especially concerning for Coker because he's taken 68% of his snaps in the slot). The trade is also good news, though not especially impactful, for Carolina's perimeter receivers, Xavier Legette and David Moore, both of whom topped 80% snap share and 90% route share Week 9.

The Jets, meanwhile, are unlikely to support a third fantasy-relevant WR behind target hogs Davante Adam and Garrett Wilson. Plus, they hope to get Allen Lazard (chest) back from injured reserve in late November or December. There's a temporary opportunity for Malachi Corley and/or Xavier Gipson to step in as the No. 3 receiver, which would at least be somewhat interesting for dynasty players (in the case of the

Williams is more likely than Mingo to step in as a starter for his new team, although the price Dallas paid for its new wideout suggests he'll be given the opportunity to unseat No. 3 receiver Jalen Brooks. That's not exactly a valuable role for fantasy, as any benefit from a potential CeeDee Lamb absence (see below) would largely seem to be canceled out by Dak Prescott's upcoming multi-game absence.

Williams has a clearer path to playing time in Pittsburgh, potentially replacing Van Jefferson as the No. 2 receiver soon, but that might only mean four or five targets per game in a run-first offense with George Pickens as the unquestioned Alpha receiver. Williams' track record of production makes him worth adding in medium/deep leagues, but in shallower formats it's fine to leave him on the waiver wire.

Box Score Breakdown

Backfield Breakdown

Target Breakdown ⬇️

Weekly Injury Report 🚑

New Injuries

WR A.J. Brown (knee / day-to-day)
WR CeeDee Lamb (shoulder / day-to-day)
WR Drake London (hip / day-to-day)
WR Chris Olave (concussion / week-to-week)
WR Keon Coleman (wrist / TBD)
WR Darius Slayton (concussion / day-to-day)
WR Simi Fehoko (elbow / TBD)
TE Isaiah Likely (hamstring / TBD)

It's been a ruthless year for injuries to top wide receivers, and while the trend continued this past Sunday, the affected players (apart from Olave) seem to have avoided long-term / IR-worthy injuries. Monday reports labeled Brown and London as day-to-day, while Lamb got the "week-to-week" terminology but is said to have a decent chance at playing this Sunday against Philadelphia (a.k.a. he's actually day-to-day).

Lamb was the only one of the three to return to his team's game after getting injured, coming back in a few minutes after the AC joint sprain for a few snaps in the red zone. He even caught the two-point conversion pass after Dallas scored a touchdown, but that doesn't mean his shoulder feels good Monday (or will be fine by the weekend).

The news is much worse for Olave, who has now suffered four documented concussions in three NFL seasons and five in the past five years (dating back to his time at OSU). His previous concussion occurred just 21 days before the one he suffered this past Sunday, and he was even checked for a concussion in the interim after taking a hard hit (Week 8, he was cleared and resumed playing). Olave may be out for a while, leaving the Saints with the worst WR room in the league (Rashid Shaheed is out for the year, and Bub Means is on IR for at least three more games).

Missed Week 9

WR Jameson Williams (suspension / Week 10 return)
WR Tee Higgins (quad / day-to-day)
WR Amari Cooper (wrist / day-to-day)
WR DK Metcalf (MCL sprain / expected back Week 11)
WR Mike Evans (hamstring / week-to-week)
WR Gabe Davis (shoulder / day-to-day)
WR Jalen McMillan (hamstring / week-to-week)
WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (hamstring / week-to-week)
WR Jordan Whittington (shoulder / day-to-day)
WR DJ Chark (groin / day-to-day)
WR Adam Thielen (IR - hamstring / eligible since Week 8)
WR Nico Collins (IR - hamstring / eligible to return Week 10)
WR Brandin Cooks (IR - ankle / eligible Week 10)
WR Josh Reynolds (IR - finger / eligible Week 10)
WR Treylon Burks (IR - knee / eligible Week 11)
WR Roman Wilson (IR - hamstring / eligible Week 13)
WR Bub Means (IR - ankle / eligible Week 14)
WR Allen Lazard (IR - chest / eligible Week 14)

Not listed above are 49ers wide receivers Jauan Jennings (hip) and Chris Conley (hamstring), coming out of a bye week for an offense that won't have Brandon Aiyuk (knee) for the rest of the year. Jennings presumably will be the No. 2 receiver if healthy, with the No. 3 then being either Conley (less likely) or rookie Ricky Pearsall (more likely). Pearsall will be a viable WR3/FLEX play for Week 10 if Jennings and Conley are inactive.

TE Dallas Goedert (hamstring / week-to-week)
TE Noah Fant (groin / week-to-week)
TE Tommy Tremble (back / day-to-day)
TE Michael Mayer (NFI - personal / eligible Week 11)
TE Luke Musgrave (IR - ankle / eligible Week 11)
TE Tyler Higbee (PUP - ACL / eligible since Week 5)

Fant missed his first game of the season, and coach Mike Macdonald didn't sound optimistic about the tight end being ready after a Week 10 bye. Goedert, meanwhile, has missed three straight games and still hadn't resumed practicing at the end of last week, suggesting Grant Calcaterra may get another game or two in his near-every-down role for the Eagles.

In Carolina, Tremble's third absence in the past four weeks resulted in Ja'Tavion Sanders getting a lot more playing time (and making the most of it with four catches for 87 yards on five targets). The Panthers seem to value Tremble's blocking and thus haven't given Sanders many snaps when his teammate has been healthy, but it would make sense to give the rookie more playing time moving forward, regardless of Tremble's availability. The Panthers are badly in need of receiving weapons, not to mention the value of developing young players amidst a(nother) rebuilding year.

Stock Report 📊

I'm focusing on role/usage more so than results/performance here, although there are cases in which the two are related or efficiency figures to impact future workloads. I use 'W9' to denote stats from just the last game and 'SZN' to denote stats for the entire season.

AYS = Air-Yard Share (percent of team's air yards in games a player participated in)
TS = Target Share (percent of team's targets in games a player participated in)

Trending Up 📈

Wide Receivers 📈

SEA Jaxon Smith-Njigba - W9: 88% snaps, 98% routes, 13 tgts, 259 AY (7-180-2)

DeAndre Hopkins - W9: 60% snaps, 67% routes, 9 tgts, 72 AY (8-86-2)

HOU Tank Dell - W9: 82% routes, 9 tgts, 123 AY (6-126-0)

NYJ Garrett Wilson - 27 tgts, 264 yards, two TDs in three games since Adams trade

NYJ Davante Adams - W9: 11 tgts, 98 AY (7-91-1)

CLE Cedric Tillman - three straight games with 9+ tgts, 75+ yards / three TDs in three weeks

Jakobi Meyers - W9: 100% routes, 11 tgts, 103 AY (8-105-0) / 31% TS without Adams

DEN Courtland Sutton - back-to-back 100-yard games / SZN: 24% TS, 39% AYS, 25% TPRR

CAR Xavier Legette - W9: 82% snaps, 93% routes, 6 tgts, 49 AY (4-33-1) / Mingo trade

CLE Jerry Jeudy - back-to-back games with 8+ tgts, 73+ yards

LAC Quentin Johnston - W9: 70% routes, 5 tgts, 66 AY (4-118-1)

LAR Demarcus Robinson - four TDs past two weeks / season-high 9 tgts W9

JAX Parker Washington - W9: 84% snaps, 94% routes, 6 tgts, 90 AY (3-41-0)

Kendrick Bourne - W9: 78% snaps, 76% routes, 6 tgts, 68 AY (4-41-0)

Sterling Shepard - W9: 64% route share, 5 tgts, 51 AY, 4-48-0 (receiving), 2-21-0 (rushing)

TEN Nick Westbrook-Ikhine - 95%+ snap share back-to-back games / TD in four straight games

CAR David Moore - W9: 86% snaps, 93% routes, 4 tgts, 57 AY (2-20-) / Mingo traded

NYJ Mike Williams - traded to Pittsburgh ('any change is good change' situation)

DAL Jonathan Mingo - traded to Dallas (ditto)

Hopkins and Smith-Njigba were the stories of the week, with the former putting up 8-86-2 and looking like an excellent Rashee Rice replacement, while the latter channeled his inner DK Metcalf and putting up 7-180-2 with a league-high 259 air yards. JSN also had two big gains wiped out by penalties, coming close to a 200-yard game despite having just one prior outing with more than 69 receiving yards in his NFL career.

Hopkins turned in a vintage performance for the Chiefs, and he did it in something a bit less than a full-time role, handling 60% snap share and 67% route share. There's room for playing-time growth, although it isn't a guarantee given his age and preseason knee injury as well as Kansas City's luxury of preparing for the playoffs (if they beat the Bills in Week 11).

Per @FantasyPtsData, Quentin Johnston has 30.8 fantasy points on busted coverages this year.
That's +53% more than any other player, and accounts for 44% of his total fantasy output. pic.twitter.com/sshvH884o3
— Ryan Heath (@RyanJ_Heath) November 4, 2024

Raiders target shares in three games with Jakobi Meyers + without Davante Adams:
Jakobi Meyers 30.8% (26)
Brock Bowers 21.4% (20)
— John Daigle (@notJDaigle) October 28, 2024