In Week 13, we had one of the lowest scoring DFS slates in recent memory. While Bijan Robinson and Adonai Mitchell went off, the top of the Battle Royale leaderboard contained a bit of a mix of names. WR scoring was fairly flat with a few guys in the 10-20 range and no QB really went nuts. The winners had a combo of good RB scores but this was definitely one week where you did not need to be perfect to win. The sim did see everything as fairly flat, so it's a positive that the slate played out that way.
For the last few weeks we were constantly tweaking the sim model but for this week we are keeping everything static compared to last week. Lets dive into the numbers and see what this weeks looks like.
For all of these data points, the sims and ADP is run as of Friday morning.
For up-to-the-minute updates on injuries, lineups, roster changes and more, head to RotoWire's Fantasy Football News & Latest NFL Updates or follow @RotoWireNFL on X.
Roster Structure
RBs | WRs | TEs | Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|
2 | 2 | 1 | 78.88% |
1 | 3 | 1 | 17.37% |
1 | 2 | 2 | 3.75% |
Similar to last week we see two RB teams optimal over 75 percent of the time. This week's number is slightly elevated compared to last week but the two TE numbers dropped slightly with all of that going to more two RB teams. There is not really a ton to learn from
In Week 13, we had one of the lowest scoring DFS slates in recent memory. While Bijan Robinson and Adonai Mitchell went off, the top of the Battle Royale leaderboard contained a bit of a mix of names. WR scoring was fairly flat with a few guys in the 10-20 range and no QB really went nuts. The winners had a combo of good RB scores but this was definitely one week where you did not need to be perfect to win. The sim did see everything as fairly flat, so it's a positive that the slate played out that way.
For the last few weeks we were constantly tweaking the sim model but for this week we are keeping everything static compared to last week. Lets dive into the numbers and see what this weeks looks like.
For all of these data points, the sims and ADP is run as of Friday morning.
For up-to-the-minute updates on injuries, lineups, roster changes and more, head to RotoWire's Fantasy Football News & Latest NFL Updates or follow @RotoWireNFL on X.
Roster Structure
RBs | WRs | TEs | Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|
2 | 2 | 1 | 78.88% |
1 | 3 | 1 | 17.37% |
1 | 2 | 2 | 3.75% |
Similar to last week we see two RB teams optimal over 75 percent of the time. This week's number is slightly elevated compared to last week but the two TE numbers dropped slightly with all of that going to more two RB teams. There is not really a ton to learn from this but once again three WR teams are perfectly fine to mix in.
What ADPs to Draft
No adjustments to the rules for this week for the sim, so for a refresher read up below.
Just a reminder here are the buckets and the rules on how they can be "drafted".
- ADP <= 6
- ADP > 6 and <= 10
- ADP > 10 and < 28
- ADP >= 28
By no means are these buckets at all perfect but we need some rules to allow the sim to build "reasonable" teams. Per the rules, you are allowed at most ONE player in Bucket One, TWO players in Bucket Two, THREE players in Bucket Three, and FOUR Players in Bucket Four. Additionally you may only take TWO players across Bucket One and Two and THREE players total across Bucket Two and Three. Again, this is not perfect but it does the job for what we are trying to accomplish. Let's take a look at how the sim actually built teams.
Bucket One | Bucket Two | Bucket Three | Bucket Four | Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 15.45% |
1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 13.81% |
1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 11.66% |
1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 10.37% |
1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 9.83% |
0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7.33% |
0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6.29% |
1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5.43% |
0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4.82% |
0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3.73% |
0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3.25% |
0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2.89% |
0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2.79% |
0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 2.35% |
The new sim rules seem to be producing similar results this week with overall structures much tighter. One interesting thing is the most common structure includes four Bucket Four players which lends me to believe this will be a strong slate for people who enjoy scrolling. For the most part, it seems like as you get to a slightly different structure, the extra scroll picks seem to be more optimal. We will take a look at the individual positions and see how that is playing out.
QB Analysis
For QB, as per usual the numbers are fairly boring and don't tell us a ton. Josh Allen is the only Bucket Two QB and he has the highest optimal rate at 17.45 percent. There are three Bucket Three QBs, so they monopolize each other. The projections like Lamar Jackson the most of these and a big part of that is a relatively low Joe Burrow projection. These two and Matthew Stafford combine for just under a 16 percent optimal rate, so it's definitely fine to take shots on these players and their game environments.
Beyond that, we get to scroll plays at the QB position. The Bucket Four guys are all extremely flat with no one player in the group exceeding seven percent. You can feel comfortable with any of these guys and are probably best to be used in a correlated fashion as there really aren't many guys with rushing upside that make them great one-off plays.
TE Analysis
Similar to last week, Trey McBride is not quite at his 30 percent heights but he does top the list over 20 percent optimal. Right behind him is Brock Bowers at over 15 percent and then eight percent Tyler Warren. These are all the non-Bucket Four guys. All of the Bucket Four guys are sub six percent optimal and no one has an ADP below 30 so feel free to scroll as far as you want considering there are 15 guys who are at two percent optimal or better.
Once again the projections like the Harold Fannin and Juwan Johnson plays.
RB Analysis
This week, three of the five players in Bucket One are RBs. Jonathan Taylor, De'Von Achane and James Cook. Achane and Cook have fantastic matchups and Taylor once again finds himself with a tough run matchup. Interestingly, despite these three plays, this is the lowest rate of optimal Bucket One RB we have seen yet. Bijan Robinson coming off his massive game is the only Bucket Two RB and while he is a good play, he has the lowest Bucket Two optimal rate. The projections really like the setup for the Bucket Three RBs with over 50 percent of teams containing at least one of them. This has led to the lowest overall Bucket Four rate we have seen thus far for RBs.
Bucket | Number | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
ONE | 1 | 38.63% |
TWO | 1 | 12.51% |
THREE | 1 | 46.18% |
THREE | 2 | 6.64% |
FOUR | 1 | 50.26% |
FOUR | 2 | 9.01% |
Looking at the players available I tend to agree with the sims that the Bucket Four RBs feel more thin than they have previously. Ashton Jeanty, Kyren Williams, RJ Harvey and Jaylen Warren all look decent in this range but come with big question marks. Even the "low" optimal rates for these guys in the Bucket Four ADP range, they do still appear in winning lineups 60 percent of the time. With the thin projections, I think it is imperative that people do not fade this group completely.
WR Analysis
Bucket One WRs project really well this week with Jaxon Smith-Njigba having the second highest overall optimal rate and Ja'Marr Chase also projecting well up top. Bucket Two contains Puka Nacua who also looks to be in a great spot. Interestingly despite some fun names in the Bucket Three WRs, the sim does not love what you sacrifice by taking two-plus guys in that bucket. This leads us to the best WR scroll slate we have see according to the sims.
Bucket | Number | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
ONE | 1 | 27.92% |
TWO | 1 | 16.78% |
THREE | 1 | 39.55% |
THREE | 2 | 4.33% |
THREE | 3 | 0.03% |
FOUR | 1 | 52.27% |
FOUR | 2 | 33.56% |
FOUR | 3 | 1.66% |
This week, over 85 percent of raters contain at least one Bucket Four WR and 35 percent of teams contain two or more. This does contain Drake London who looks unlikely as of writing to return this week from injury but there are other interesting names in good spots. Betting on a Zay Flowers bounce back feels thin but he was a bad OPI call away from a huge TD catch and him and Lamar will likely never be this collectively cheap. Terry McLaurin looked awesome in his return from injury and gets Jayden Daniels back as well. Jakobi Meyers is still super cheap despite looking like the top weapon for Trevor Lawrence. Overall, there are lots of fun names at the bottom of the board that I will be getting to this week.
My preferred structure is taking one early WR and RB each from Bucket One/Two and then bypassing the middle entirely and building fun correlated scroll downs. Let's see if this week plays out the way I think it will.
Interested in other DFS contests? Check out RotoWire's DFS Lineup Optimizer.
