DFS NHL Breakdown: Friday Line Stacks and Strategies

Please see this previous article for the basic strategy write-up.

Rankings use a Corsi-based rating system that I created, with the average rating of 100 both offensively (OR) and defensively (DR). This rating is determined by factoring in Corsi, scoring chances, high danger chances, shooting percentage and save percentage with more recent games weighted heavier. With the current rosters I have loaded, the Offense Rating (OR) ranges from a best of 128.3 (TB) to a worst of 82.2 (DET), and the Defense Rating (DR) ranges from a best of 92.5 (PIT) to a worst of 107.3 (NYR). These numbers will change daily with line changes, injuries and player call-ups. The ratings in the chart below represent adjusted match up ratings.

Slate Preview

Welcome back from the holiday break and the NHL is greeting us with an 11-game slate. A lot of teams will be playing Saturday as well, with Toronto, Carolina, NY Rangers, Washington, Colorado, Pittsburgh, Nashville, Vegas, Los Angeles and San Jose all playing the front end of back-to-backs. The following tournaments highlight the DFS schedule on FanDuel and DraftKings:

The following chart will be included so I do not have to bog down the write-ups with too many offensive and defensive ratings. Also shown are my projected shots on goal, shooting percentages and save percentages. Starting goalies are listed with either a projected or confirmed tag at the time of publication – this will be updated later in the day.

Line Stacks

The Line Stacks below are not necessarily my top projected scoring lines, but are the best value plays on the board. All players below have a number inside parenthesis next to their names, which denotes the power play unit they are on (1) or (2). If they are not on a power play they will be noted with a (0), and the rare occasion of a (3) means that they are on both power play units.

TOR1 at NJ: John Tavares (1) ($7,800 FD, $7,100 DK), William Nylander (1) ($5,300 FD, $4,900 DK), Ilya Mikheyev (0) ($3,900 FD, $3,600 DK) - This trio was paired together in their last game against Carolina and responded with three goals, seven assists and eight goals…that's good. Over the past four games the trio has been on fire with 11 goals, 14 assists and 36 shots; fire them up against New Jersey (104.1 DR).

SJ1 vs. LA: Evander Kane (1) ($6,700 FD, $6,700 DK), Logan Couture (1) ($6,900 FD, $6,300 DK), Patrick Marleau (0) ($3,500 FD, $2,700 DK) - The Kings had started to turn things around with four wins in five games but have since lost three in a row. The Sharks have scored eight goals in two games against the Kings this year, and Couture and Kane have put up four goals, two assists and 25 shots over the past five games. You can cut Marleau from this line if you'd like, as he is clearly losing his battle against Father Time, so consider mixing in Tomas Hertl instead.

NYI1 at CHI: Mathew Barzal (1) ($6,600 FD, $6,800 DK), Anders Lee (1) ($6,600 FD, $4,700 DK), Jordan Eberle (1) ($5,400 FD, $4,100 DK) - Chicago allowed seven goals to a horrible New Jersey team Monday, so this looks like a good spot to attack. I generally like second lines more on the road, but Barzal, Lee and Eberle have been on fire the last three games with five goals, nine assists and 27 shots between them.

CAR2 at NYR: Sebastian Aho (1) ($7,600 FD, $6,600 DK), Teuvo Teravainen (1) ($6,600 FD, $5,400 DK), Nino Niederreiter (2) ($4,600 FD, $4,300 DK) - With a matchup against the Rangers (107.3 DR, worst in the league), CAR2 is in a nice spot as the second line hopefully drawing better defensive matchups. Aho, Teravainen and Niederreiter have combined for four goals, 12 assists and 38 shots in their past five games.

NJ1 vs. TOR: Kyle Palmieri (1) ($6,200 FD, $5,600 DK), Nico Hischier (1) ($5,200 FD, $5,000 DK), Jesper Bratt (2) ($3,700 FD, $3,500 DK) - NJ2 and NJ3 did more damage in their seven-goal outburst against Chicago on Monday, but returning home I'm betting on the top line to provide the bulk of the offense with home ice line matching. Palmieri has three goals, an assist and 13 shots in his last five games, while Hischier and Bratt have a goal, three assists and eight shots between them.

BOS2 at BUF: Jake DeBrusk (2) ($5,700 FD, $4,500 DK), David Krejci (2) ($5,300 FD, $4,500 DK), Danton Heinen (1) ($4,400 FD, $3,800 DK) - BOS1 is one of the elite lines of the day, but for the savings I'm going to be working in BOS2 with some of the other expensive line stacks. DeBrusk, Krejci and Heinen have combined for five goals, seven assists and 28 goals in their past five games and could provide a really nice option if they can record multiple goals.

Other Options: PIT1 at NSH, BOS1 at BUF, WAS1/2 vs CBJ, COL1/2 vs MIN, NYR1/2 vs CAR, VGK1 at ANH, ANH1 vs VGK

Solo Forward Options

John Tavares (1) TOR1 at NJ ($7,800 FD, $7,100 DK) - Tavares has a great matchup against a bad New Jersey team and actually had his best game in two weeks (goal, two assists, four shots) after Mitch Marner was put on a different line, so I'm hoping some additional play-making responsibility will help jump start him.

Andrei Svechnikov (1) CAR1 at NYR ($6,400 FD, $6,000 DK) - CAR2 is my preferred stack from Carolina, but with three goals and 12 shots over his last four games, Svechnikov provides a nice solo option or an alternative piece to the CAR2 stack.

Tomas Hertl (2) SJ2 vs LA ($6,300 FD, $5,400 DK) - Hertl provides a nice alternative to Patrick Marleau in the SJ1 stacks but is a fine solo option as well against the Kings; he has recorded four goals, two assists and 15 shots in his past five games.

Jack Hughes (1) NJ3 vs TOR ($4,200 FD, $3,700 DK) - Hughes has stepped up his offense since the Taylor Hall trade and has taken nine shots over the last two games, and he scored his fifth goal of the season Monday at Chicago.

Adrian Kempe (1) LA2 at SJ ($3,800 FD, $3,100 DK) - Kempe has three goals in his last four games and San Jose has not played good defense at all this season (3.47 g/gm, second-most in the league).

Defensemen

Matt Grzelcyk (1) BOS at BUF ($3,800 FD, $3,000 DK) - Torey Krug has been placed back on injured reserve, and wduring a five-game stretch back in November when Krug was on IR, Grzelcyk had two goals, two assists, 13 shots and six blocks while quarterbacking the top power play. This does not project to be a seriously high-scoring affair, but for the price he is the clear top value play on the slate.

Brent Burns (3) SJ vs. LA ($6,300 FD, $6,200 DK) - Burns has had a rough year by his standards, but things have started to turn around with a goal, three assists, 14 shots and three blocks over his past three games. He now finds himself on both power play units in a nice matchup at home against the Kings.

Shea Theodore (3) VGK at ANH ($5,100 FD, $4,800 DK) - Theodore was shutout last game but had been a man possessed for the five games prior with two goals, six assists and 15 shots. He will also be skating on both power play units against a shorthanded Anaheim team.

Tyson Barrie (1) TOR at NJ ($4,700 FD, $5,300 DK) - Barrie did not transition well to the new team earlier in the year, but he appears to be turning the corner since the coaching change and has put up a goal, four assists and 14 shots over his past six games. Morgan Rielly is an option as well, but I'll be using Barrie as long as he is on the top power play unit.

Ryan Pulock (2) NYI at CHI ($4,700 FD, $5,000 DK) - Pulock has a goal, two assists and 15 shots over his past four games, and though he is not on the top power play, he has recorded all three of his points on the man-advantage during that time.

Goalies

Malcolm Subban VGK at ANH ($8,000 FD, $7,800 DK) - DraftKings value. Subban has been great in his last two starts, road wins at Dallas and San Jose (1.49 GAA, .956 SV%) so a date against an Anaheim team that should be without Rickard Rakell, Ryan Kesler and Nick Ritchie makes this a great spot for Subban.

Pavel Francouz COL vs MIN ($8,400 FD, $8,400 DK) - Grubauer has been slow to return from an injury that cost him a week earlier this month, as he has lost three straight starts while allowing 10 goals. However, his save percentage has been solid (.904), so I don't think there is much to worry about and the extra time off for the holiday can only help. There is some risk here against a Minnesota team who lit up the scoreboard against Arizona last time I suggested a goalie against them.

Ilya Samsonov WSH vs CBJ ($7,800 FD, $8,300 DK) - FanDuel value. Columbus (90.1 DR) will be without one of their best offensive players in Oliver Bjorkstrand for the next four-to-six weeks, but they are coming into this game on a five-game win streak, including a 3-0 shutout victory at home against Washington. I think this should light a fire under the Capitals, and Samsonov comes into Friday on a four-game win streak (2.01 GAA, .924 SV%).

Tournament Punt Option: Aaron Dell SJ vs LA ($7,500 FD, $7,200 DK)