This article is part of our DFS NHL Breakdown series.
Please see this previous article for the basic strategy write-up.
My rankings use a Corsi-based rating system that I created, where the average rating is 100 both offensively (OR) and defensively (DR). This rating is determined by factoring in Corsi, Scoring Chances, High Danger Chances, Shooting Percentage and Save Percentage. With the current rosters I have loaded, the Offense Rating (OR) ranges from a best of 114.9 (VGK) to a worst of 86.8 (EDM), and the Defense Rating (DR) ranges from a best of 92.6 (BOS) to a worst of 110.1 (OTT). These numbers will change daily with line changes, injuries and player call-ups.
Slate Preview
The following chart will be included so I do not have to bog down the write-ups with too many Offensive and Defensive Ratings. Also shown are my projected shots on goal, shooting percentages and save percentage. Starting goalies are listed with either a projected or confirmed tag at the time of publication – this will be updated later in the day.
| TEAM | OPP | STARTING GOALIE | OR | DR | SOG | S% | SV% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | at ANH | (C) Darcy Kuemper | 97.2 | 100.6 | 34.3 | 9.3 | 92.1 |
| Anaheim | vs. ARI | (P) John Gibson | 88.7 | 106.1 | 29.8 | 8.0 | 91.6 |
| Montreal | at CAR | (P) Carey Price | 103.9 | 97.2 | 30.9 | 9.2 | 91.7 |
| Carolina | vs. MON | (C) Petr Mrazek | 113.9 | 96.1 | 32.4 | 9.2 | 91.0 |
| Calgary | at COL | (C) David Rittich | 113.6 | 93.3 | 32.7 | 11.4 | 90.7 |
| Colorado | vs. CGY | (P) Philipp Grubauer | 108.2 | 100.8 | 30.8 | 9.7 | 91.1 |
| Boston | at DAL | (C) Tuukka Rask | 107.5 | 92.6 |
Please see this previous article for the basic strategy write-up.
My rankings use a Corsi-based rating system that I created, where the average rating is 100 both offensively (OR) and defensively (DR). This rating is determined by factoring in Corsi, Scoring Chances, High Danger Chances, Shooting Percentage and Save Percentage. With the current rosters I have loaded, the Offense Rating (OR) ranges from a best of 114.9 (VGK) to a worst of 86.8 (EDM), and the Defense Rating (DR) ranges from a best of 92.6 (BOS) to a worst of 110.1 (OTT). These numbers will change daily with line changes, injuries and player call-ups.
Slate Preview
The following chart will be included so I do not have to bog down the write-ups with too many Offensive and Defensive Ratings. Also shown are my projected shots on goal, shooting percentages and save percentage. Starting goalies are listed with either a projected or confirmed tag at the time of publication – this will be updated later in the day.
| TEAM | OPP | STARTING GOALIE | OR | DR | SOG | S% | SV% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | at ANH | (C) Darcy Kuemper | 97.2 | 100.6 | 34.3 | 9.3 | 92.1 |
| Anaheim | vs. ARI | (P) John Gibson | 88.7 | 106.1 | 29.8 | 8.0 | 91.6 |
| Montreal | at CAR | (P) Carey Price | 103.9 | 97.2 | 30.9 | 9.2 | 91.7 |
| Carolina | vs. MON | (C) Petr Mrazek | 113.9 | 96.1 | 32.4 | 9.2 | 91.0 |
| Calgary | at COL | (C) David Rittich | 113.6 | 93.3 | 32.7 | 11.4 | 90.7 |
| Colorado | vs. CGY | (P) Philipp Grubauer | 108.2 | 100.8 | 30.8 | 9.7 | 91.1 |
| Boston | at DAL | (C) Tuukka Rask | 107.5 | 92.6 | 32.8 | 10.7 | 91.0 |
| Dallas | vs. BOS | (C) Ben Bishop | 97.5 | 98.7 | 29.2 | 9.3 | 93.0 |
| Minnesota | at NSH | (P) Devan Dubnyk | 99.0 | 96.7 | 31.5 | 9.0 | 90.7 |
| Nashville | vs. MIN | (C) Pekka Rinne | 102.5 | 96.0 | 32.4 | 10.7 | 91.5 |
| Winnipeg | at NYR | (P) Connor Hellebuyck | 92.7 | 102.7 | 32.9 | 10.6 | 91.1 |
| NY Rangers | vs. WPG | (C) Henrik Lundqvist | 92.6 | 106.0 | 33.8 | 11.0 | 90.5 |
| Buffalo | at PIT | (C) Carter Hutton | 100.3 | 99.1 | 34.2 | 8.6 | 90.3 |
| Pittsburgh | vs. BUF | (C) Matt Murray | 105.8 | 100.2 | 34.0 | 10.1 | 91.7 |
| Florida | at TB | (P) Sergei Bobrovsky | 101.2 | 100.9 | 32.6 | 10.2 | 90.3 |
| Tampa Bay | vs. FLA | (C) Andrei Vasilevskiy | 105.2 | 96.8 | 32.7 | 10.9 | 92.2 |
Line Stacks
(The number next to the player name is the power play line they are slated to skate with; if a 0 is shown, that means they are not on either power play line)
TB1 vs. FLA: Nikita Kucherov (1) ($8,900 FD, $7,900 DK), Steven Stamkos (1) ($8,200 FD, $7,100 DK), Tyler Johnson (1) ($5,800 FD, $6,800 DK) - Tampa Bay has major depth issues with Brayden Point out with a hip injury for the first few weeks of the season, and rather than spreading themselves thin, Tampa is loading up their top line with Kucherov, Stamkos and Johnson. All three with play on the top power play unit and should log a ton of ice time. The matchup against Florida is a favorable one on paper, even with the addition of free-agent goalie Sergei Bobrovsky, who struggled against Tampa Bay last season by allowing 12 goals in two games.
PIT1 vs. BUF: Sidney Crosby (1) ($8,500 FD, $7,500 DK), Jake Guentzel (1) ($7,400 FD, $6,700 DK), Patric Hornqvist (1) ($5,900 FD, $6,100 DK) - Tampa Bay's top line might be the most popular line of the night, but for my money I am going to pivot to PIT1 on my top lineups. A home game against Buffalo, who struggled mightily on the road last year (12-24-5 record), provides a great matchup, and all three members of the line play on the top power play unit.
WPG1 at NYR: Mark Scheifele (1) ($7,600 FD, $6,400 DK), Blake Wheeler (1) ($7,600 FD, $6,300 DK), Nikolaj Ehlers (2) ($4,500 FD, $5,800 DK) - WPG2 has both Patrik Laine and Kyle Connor, who were late RFA holdouts who ended up getting little preseason time in, and I think that Winnipeg's coaching staff will hold them back a little tonight, which should open up some extra shifts for WPG1. The Rangers will offer up the worst defense in my rankings, and with Scheifele and Wheeler getting top power play time and Ehlers getting second unit work, there is a lot to like tonight with WPG1.
NYR1 vs. WPG: Artemi Panarin (1) ($7,800 FD, $6,000 DK), Mika Zibanejad (1) ($6,800 FD, $6,300 DK), Pavel Buchnevich (1) ($5,000 FD, $4,700 DK) - Flip to the other end of the ice, we get NYR1 against the second-worst defense in my rankings tonight in Winnipeg. This top line for the Rangers excites me; Zibanejad was an all-star caliber offensive player last year (30 goals, 44 assists) and the addition of Artemi Panarin should provide him with a quality winger he's never had before. Pavel Buchnevich (22 goals, 17 assists in 64 games) is a talented young player who is going to benefit from playing with two offensive stars.
NSH2 vs. MIN: Filip Forsberg (1) ($7,500 FD, $6,500 DK), Matt Duchene (1) ($6,700 FD, $5,600 DK), Mikael Granlund (2) ($5,300 FD, $4,900 DK) - NSH1 is in play too, but I want exposure to Forsberg and Duchene on the top power play, rather than Viktor Arvidsson and Ryan Johansen. Granlund provides former all-star level production that was acquired in an under-the-radar transaction at the end of last season. Minnesota has lost some talent at their defensive forward positions, so I expect them to play a bit more open this season.
BUF1 at PIT: Jack Eichel (1) ($7,500 FD, $6,700 DK), Sam Reinhart (1) ($5,300 FD, $5,300 DK), Victor Olofsson (1) ($4,100 FD, $3,500 DK) - Playing on the road at Pittsburgh is not the best matchup in the league, and Buffalo struggled on the road last year, but this line is talented and too cheap to ignore. Eichel is a super star, Reinhart is one of the most underrated players in the league and Olofsson is talented enough in his first training camp to displace Jeff Skinner from the top line. All three will be on the top power play unit, providing some extra ice time in high scoring situations.
NYR2 vs. WPG: Kaapo Kakko (2) ($5,800 FD, $5,600 DK), Chris Kreider (1) ($5,700 FD, $5,400 DK), Ryan Strome (2) ($4,300 FD, $3,400 DK) - Similar to NYR1, the second Rangers line is in a favorable spot against Winnipeg. Kreider provides a top line power play spot and veteran leadership on the ice to help future star Kaapo Kakko. Feel free to cut Strome from this group and just run with the wingers.
Also in play: NSH1 vs. MIN, PIT2/PIT3 vs. BUF, CAR2/CAR3 vs. MON, ARI1 at ANH
Solo Forward Options
There are not many stand-alone options tonight, so the forwards to target are all on the lines listed above. I hope to have some better options on Tuesday.
Defensemen
Josh Morrissey (1) WPG at NYR ($4,400 FD, $4,500 DK) - In a couple weeks we are gonna look back at these salaries and laugh. Morrissey would be in play tonight if you added $1,000 to his salary. Winnipeg lost Jacob Trouba in the offseason and are without Dustin Byfuglien to start the season, leaving Morrissey as the main blue line weapon for the Jets.
Jacob Trouba (1) NYR vs. WPG ($5,600 FD, $5,100 DK) - Trouba was extremely productive for Winnipeg in games last year when he got to be the main blue line quarterback, a position he is primed to man all year for the Rangers this season. Winnipeg is good pace match up (102.7 DR) and the popular "revenge narrative" is in play.
Ryan Ellis (2) NSH vs. MIN ($4,700 FD, $5,000 DK) - With the trade of P.K. Subban to New Jersey, Ellis will pick up extra ice time as the top blue line option after Roman Josi, and he is in position to improve on his career-high 41 points last year.
Justin Schultz (2) PIT vs. BUF ($4,500 FD, $4,200 DK) - Kris Letang is certainly the better defenseman on Pittsburgh, but Schultz is a better overall value play. Buffalo struggled significantly on the road last season (12-24-5 record), and should provide a good spot for the Pittsburgh defenseman.
Neal Pionk (2) WPG at NYR ($3,700 FD, $3,900 DK) - Similar to Josh Morrissey, Pionk benefits from the losses suffered by Winnipeg on the blue line; couple that with a good matchup (106.0 DR) and revenge game against the Rangers.
Goalies
Matt Murray PIT vs BUF ($8,400 FD, $8,300 DK) - Pittsburgh is one of the biggest betting favorites on the board, so Murray should be in a good spot to record a victory, plus Buffalo offers one of the best high volume/low quality shooting opponents in the league (34.2 projected shots at 8.6 percent shooting).
Pekka Rinne NSH vs MIN ($8,300 FD, $8,200 DK) - Minnesota played better on the road than at home last season, but overall they are just not a good offensive hockey team (99.0 OR). However, they still put up a decent amount of shots (31.5). Rinne is on the back end of a hall-of-fame career, but if 2018-19 was any indication (30 wins, 2.42 GAA, 0.918 SV% in 55 starts), he's not done yet.
John Gibson ANH vs ARI ($7,800 FD, $7,900 DK) - Gibson is the poster child for my "ignore wins and focus on saves" theory on fantasy goalies. He is arguably the most talented goalie in the NHL, but he plays behind one of the worst defenses in the league in Anaheim (106.1 DR). Tonight is a great spot for Gibson to rack up the fantasy points, with Arizona being one of the higher volume shooting teams in the league (34.3 projected shots).
Also in play: Andrei Vasilevskiy TB vs FLA ($9,200 FD, $8,400 DK), Petr Mrazek CAR vs MON ($7,600 FD, $7,800 DK), Darcy Kuemper ARI at ANH ($7,400 FD, $7,300 DK)
