This article is part of our DFS NHL Breakdown series.
Please see this previous article for the basic strategy write-up.
My rankings use a Corsi-based rating system that I created; the average rating is 100, both offensively (OR) and defensively (DR). This rating is determined by factoring in Corsi, Scoring Chances, High Danger Chances, Shooting Percentage and Save Percentage. With the current rosters I have loaded, the offense rating (OR) ranges from a best of 116.5 (TOR) to a worst of 89.4 (EDM), and the defense rating (DR) ranges from a best of 92.1 (BOS) to a worst of 110.8 (OTT). These numbers will change daily with line changes, injuries and player call-ups.
Slate Preview
Tuesday offers a solid slate of eight games with a wide range of options up and down the schedule.
The following chart will be included so I do not have to bog down the write-ups with too many offensive and defensive ratings. Also shown are my projected shots on goal, shooting percentages and save percentage. Starting goalies are listed with either a projected or confirmed tag at the time of publication – this will be updated later in the day.
| TEAM | OPP | STARTING GOALIE | OR | DR | SOG | S% | SV% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carolina | at FLA | (C) James Reimer | 113.9 | 96.0 | 33.2 | 9.2 | 90.2 |
| Florida | vs CAR | (C) Sergei Bobrovsky | 101.4 | 102.3 | 33.6 | 10.4 | 90.2 |
| Edmonton | at NYI | (C) Mikko Koskinen | 89.4 | 106.6 | 28.4 | 9.2 | 90.3 |
| NY Islanders | vs. EDM | (C) Semyon Varlamov | 93.3 | 96.3 | 31.7 | 9.8 | 91.6 |
| Winnipeg | at PIT | (C) Connor Hellebuyck | 93.1 | 105.2 | 30.0 | 10.4 | 91.2 |
Please see this previous article for the basic strategy write-up.
My rankings use a Corsi-based rating system that I created; the average rating is 100, both offensively (OR) and defensively (DR). This rating is determined by factoring in Corsi, Scoring Chances, High Danger Chances, Shooting Percentage and Save Percentage. With the current rosters I have loaded, the offense rating (OR) ranges from a best of 116.5 (TOR) to a worst of 89.4 (EDM), and the defense rating (DR) ranges from a best of 92.1 (BOS) to a worst of 110.8 (OTT). These numbers will change daily with line changes, injuries and player call-ups.
Slate Preview
Tuesday offers a solid slate of eight games with a wide range of options up and down the schedule.
The following chart will be included so I do not have to bog down the write-ups with too many offensive and defensive ratings. Also shown are my projected shots on goal, shooting percentages and save percentage. Starting goalies are listed with either a projected or confirmed tag at the time of publication – this will be updated later in the day.
| TEAM | OPP | STARTING GOALIE | OR | DR | SOG | S% | SV% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carolina | at FLA | (C) James Reimer | 113.9 | 96.0 | 33.2 | 9.2 | 90.2 |
| Florida | vs CAR | (C) Sergei Bobrovsky | 101.4 | 102.3 | 33.6 | 10.4 | 90.2 |
| Edmonton | at NYI | (C) Mikko Koskinen | 89.4 | 106.6 | 28.4 | 9.2 | 90.3 |
| NY Islanders | vs. EDM | (C) Semyon Varlamov | 93.3 | 96.3 | 31.7 | 9.8 | 91.6 |
| Winnipeg | at PIT | (C) Connor Hellebuyck | 93.1 | 105.2 | 30.0 | 10.4 | 91.2 |
| Pittsburgh | vs. WPG | (C) Matt Murray | 101.4 | 101.0 | 34.7 | 10.0 | 91.8 |
| Dallas | at WSH | (C) Ben Bishop | 98.6 | 97.5 | 32.0 | 9.4 | 93.0 |
| Washington | vs. DAL | (C) Braden Holtby | 105.9 | 102.8 | 31.6 | 11.1 | 90.7 |
| Anaheim | at DET | (C) John Gibson | 90.0 | 105.5 | 29.8 | 7.9 | 91.4 |
| Detroit | vs. ANH | (C) Jimmy Howard | 91.5 | 104.6 | 32.5 | 10.2 | 90.7 |
| San Jose | at NSH | (P) Martin Jones | 109.5 | 99.9 | 31.2 | 9.9 | 88.7 |
| Nashville | vs. SJ | (C) Pekka Rinne | 103.6 | 96.3 | 35.7 | 10.7 | 91.5 |
| Los Angeles | at CGY | (P) Jack Campbell | 91.2 | 105.6 | 28.1 | 8.6 | 91.1 |
| Calgary | vs. LA | (C) David Rittich | 112.2 | 93.5 | 35.0 | 11.1 | 90.8 |
| Boston | at VGK | (C) Tuukka Rask | 107.4 | 92.1 | 33.2 | 10.8 | 91.0 |
| Vegas | vs. BOS | (C) Marc-Andre Fleury | 112.4 | 96.8 | 32.9 | 9.9 | 91.0 |
Line Stacks
CGY1 vs. LA: Johnny Gaudreau (1) ($7,800 FD, $7,500 DK), Sean Monahan (1) ($7,300 FD, $7,500 DK), Elias Lindholm (1) ($5,500 FD, $5,400 DK) - CGY1 is the top line in play Tuesday with an elite match up against the lowly Los Angeles Kings (105.6 DR). With Lindholm in the mix, the line is still relatively affordable, and all three play together on the top power play unit.
PIT1 vs. WPG: Sidney Crosby (1) ($8,500 FD, $7,300 DK), Jake Guentzel (1) ($7,300 FD, $6,200 DK), Dominik Simon (2) ($3,500 FD, $2,700 DK) - PIT1 burned me last Thursday, but the situation Tuesday is even better than it was then. A home date against a bad Winnipeg defense (105.2 DR), plus Evgeni Malkin is out with an injury, which means the Penguins will need to lean on Crosby and Guentzel even more. Simon offers a good salary saver pairing, but he can be cut if you have extra cap space.
NSH2 vs. SJ: Filip Forsberg (1) ($7,600 FD, $7,200 DK), Matt Duchene (1) ($7,000 FD, $6,200 DK), Mikael Granlund (2) ($5,200 FD, $5,000 DK) - San Jose is a middle-of-the-road team in my defensive rankings (99.9 DR), but Martin Jones is the worst goalie on the slate in my rankings. Duchene has provided a league-high five assists in Nashville's first two games, while Forsberg has netted a pair of goals plus an assist. Granlund has tallied one goal and does not get time on the top power play, so if you want to cut him you can. Consider pairing NSH1 with Roman Josi or Ryan Ellis and/or possibly Pekka Rinne.
DET1 vs. ANH: Dylan Larkin (1) ($7,500 FD, $6,300 DK), Anthony Mantha (1) ($6,800 FD, $6,600 DK), Tyler Bertuzzi (1) ($5,500 FD, $5,800 DK) - I am a big fan of John Gibson, but on the road I think you can fire up the DET1 line against the bad Anaheim defense (105.5 DR). Mantha has recorded 14 goals in his past 20 games going back to last season, while Larkin has provided 10 goals and 13 assists in his last 20.
NYI1 vs. EDM: Mathew Barzal (1) ($6,200 FD, $6,000 DK), Anders Lee (1) ($6,500 FD, $5,500 DK), Jordan Eberle (2) ($6,100 FD, $5,000 DK) - Edmonton offers up one of the worst defenses in the league (106.6 DR), so a home game against the Oilers puts the Islanders in a good offensive spot. NYI1 has yet to pop, with NYI3 actually providing the most spark in the early going. That being said, Barzal and Lee are too talented to be held in check for much longer.
Also in play: FLA1 vs CAR, CGY2 vs LAK, ANH1 at DET, PIT2 vs WPG
Solo Forward Options
Matthew Tkachuk (1) CGY2 vs LA ($6,600 FD, $5,600 DK) - CGY2 is in play as a whole, but Tkachuk offers a solid solo option or add-on to CGY1 for power play correlation.
Nikolaj Ehlers (2) WPG2 at PIT ($5,000 FD, $6,000 DK) - Probably not an option on DraftKings, but still in play to get some value exposure to WPG1 on FanDuel.
Jared McCann (2) PIT2 vs WPG ($4,300 FD, $3,700 DK) - Filling in for Evgeni Malkin on PIT2 means extra ice time and scoring opportunities against a poor Winnipeg defense.
Taro Hirose (1) DET2 vs ANH ($3,600 FD, $3,200 DK) - Anaheim offers up a lot of shot attempts (105.5 DR), and Hirose is a talented young player with time on the top power play unit.
Defensemen
Mark Giordano (1) CGY vs. LA ($6,700 FD, $6,400 DK) - Giordano is one of the elite defensemen in the league, leading the power play of one of the strongest offenses (112.2 OR). A matchup against a porous Kings' defense (105.6 DR) just amplifies his chances to produce.
Ryan Ellis (2) NSH vs. SJ ($5,000 FD, $5,300 DK) - Ellis was one of my suggested plays last Thursday, and he responded with a goal and an assist; there is just a lot to like about his game with additional ice time and power play responsibilities following the trade of P.K. Subban.
Justin Schultz (1) PIT vs. WPG ($4,300 FD, $4,100 DK) - Winnipeg is a mess defensively with injuries to Bryan Little and Josh Morrissey, plus Dustin Byfuglien being on leave; Kris Letang is definitely in play as well, but with Schultz taking a spot on the top power play unit for the injured Malkin, there is just a lot of value in Schultz's price.
Ryan Pulock (1) NYI vs. EDM ($3,900 FD, $5,500 DK) - Certainly a FanDuel-only play, but the top even strength and top power play assignments for a $3,900 defenseman at home against Edmonton (106.6 DR) is an elite value on this slate.
Sami Niku (1) WPG at PIT ($3,500 FD, $2,500 DK) - Josh Morrissey is out again with an upper-body injury, so Niku will enter the lineup and slide into the top power play spot. The prospect has yet to translate his AHL numbers into NHL success, and I would likely use Pulock for the price on FanDuel; however, for the price you are not going to find a better potential value then Niku on DraftKings.
Goalies
David Rittich CGY vs LA ($7,700 FD, $8,400 DK) - The Kings offer a poor offensive opponent (91.2 OR), while Calgary is one of the best defenses in the league (93.5 DR); this does not bode well for a large shot volume, but if there is a best bet for a shutout Tuesday, it is Rittich.
Pekka Rinne NSH vs SJ ($8,400 FD, $8,200 DK) - San Jose is off to a slow start this year at 0-3, but their shot volume should increase a bit Tuesday with Evander Kane back in the lineup. Rinne will be in play for me at home in a lot of spots this year, and this one offers both a high volume, struggling opponent and a poor goaltender for the opposition.
Matt Murray PIT vs WPG ($8,400 FD, $8,300 DK) - Winnipeg offers a lot of firepower on their top line (102.6 OR for WPG1), but the rest of their team struggles offensively (93.1 OR for the whole roster). Pittsburgh does not have much to offer defensively (101.0 DR), but being at home they will get to match up their best defensive lines against WPG1.
Sergei Bobrovsky FLA vs CAR ($8,600 FD, $7,700 DK) - Florida does not possession a strong defense (102.3 DR), but in the case of fantasy hockey we know that more shots equals more save attempts. Carolina is one of the best offensive teams in my rating system (113.9 OR), but they also do not shoot at a good rate (9.2 S%); this a GPP-only play that could be a spot where Bobrovsky burns you, but this also could be a high volume victory at home.
Also in play: Semyon Varlamov NYI vs EDM ($7,700 FD, $7,500 DK), John Gibson ANH at DET ($8,200 FD, $7,500 DK), Jimmy Howard DET vs ANH ($7,200 FD, $7,900 DK)
