This article is part of our UFC Picks series.
Top UFC Vegas 106 Betting Picks and Odds Guide
The UFC is back at the Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada on Saturday, May 17 for UFC Vegas 106. In the main event, welterweight contenders throw down, as Gilbert Burns takes on Michael Morales.
Below, I'll share my UFC Vegas 106 predictions, including my favorite pick, an underdog, a prop and a two-fighter parlay. All UFC odds are via the DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Weight Class: Flyweight
Hyun Sung Park (9-0) vs Carlos Hernandez (10-4)
For my favorite pick at UFC Vegas 106, I'm taking Hyun Sung Park to get past Carlos Hernandez on Saturday.
Park is 2-0 in the UFC and is a good striker. He takes on Hernandez, who has struggled at times in the UFC. Park should be able to land the better shots and do more damage here.
The South Korean also has good takedown defense. I expect he'll keep it standing to better his case for a decision win. A late stoppage through his volume and damage is also possible.
UFC Vegas 106 Bet: Hyun Sung Park (-180)
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Weight Class: Lightweight
Sodiq Yusuff (13-4) vs Mairon Santos (15-1)
For my underdog pick, I like Sodiq Yusuff to get the win as he moves up to lightweight.
Yusuff announced he'd be changing weight classes, and in his lightweight debut, he takes on a featherweight in Santos, who's taking it on short notice and fighting at 155lbs. Santos is 2-0 in the UFC and should have lost his last fight to Francis Marshall in a fight he was a big favorite in.
Yusuff's chin should be much better at lightweight, plus he should be able to use his wrestling and striking to control the fight.
Yusuff is a much better overall fighter, and I'm surprised he's the underdog here. This is a great spot to take "Super" Sodiq.
UFC Vegas 106 Bet: Sodiq Yusuff (+105)
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Weight Class: Lightweight
Matheus Camilo (9-2) vs Gabriel Green (11-5)
Matheus Camilo vs Gabriel Green at UFC Vegas 106 should be a very fun fight for however long it lasts, and I like the under 2.5 rounds here.
Camilo is making his UFC debut and has plenty of quick finishes with knockouts and submissions. Green, meanwhile, is an all-action fighter. In his last three fights, the under 2.5 rounds has hit twice.
In Camilo's UFC debut, he likely will come out aggressive, looking to make a statement, especially with Green coming off a 14-second knockout win.
If Camilo doesn't get the early stoppage, Green should be able to take over and likely finish Camilo in the second or third round. Regardless, this is a good spot to take the under 2.5 rounds here.
UFC Vegas 106 Bet: Matheus Camilo & Gabriel Green under 2.5 rounds (-160)
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Weight Class: Strawweight & featherweight
Tecia Pennington (14-7) vs Luana Pinheiro (11-4)
Melquizael Costa (23-7) vs Julian Erosa (31-11)
For my parlay, I'm taking Tecia Pennington and Melquizael Costa to get their hands raised Saturday.
Pennington is a tough out for anyone. She is extremely durable and can grind out wins. Pinheiro, meanwhile, has lost three straight and doesn't look UFC-caliber. Pennington should be able to land the better shots on the feet while also using her clinch work to win the minutes and get a decision victory.
To close out the parlay, I'm backing Costa to beat Erosa in what should be a fun fight. Erosa is a good finisher, but his chin is still a concern, as he can get knocked out. I like Costa to be able to control Erosa on the ground and likely win a decision, as Erosa is good enough to not get submitted but will be controlled.
UFC Vegas 106 Bet: Tecia Pennington & Melquizael Costa parlay (+103)
UFC Best Bets
Here is a recap of my best UFC picks for this weekend's UFC Vegas 106 card.
- Hyun Sung Park (-180)
- Sodiq Yusuff (+105)
- Matheus Camilo & Gabriel Green under 2.5 rounds (-160)
- Tecia Pennington & Melquizael Costa parlay (+103)
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