The UFC is back in 2026, so we'll once again use this article to track the top DFS plays locks and value plays for UFC 324: Pimblett vs. Gaethje. Included in this preview are profiles for each fighter and breakdowns of my DFS strategy for every bout on the card. Welcome to Drake's Takes.
Top DFS Picks and Strategies for UFC 324
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Justin Gaethje (26-5-0) v. Paddy Pimblett (23-3-0)
- Height: 5'11" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 26-5 (19 KO/TKO, 2 submission)
- One of the hardest hitters in UFC history with brutal leg kicks and fight-altering power
- High-output pressure striker who thrives in chaos but remains hittable in exchanges
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 73" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 23-3 (6 KO/TKO, 11 submissions)
- Underrated fight IQ and positioning; does a good job avoiding sustained damage despite a risky style
- Strong grappling and scrambling ability with opportunistic submission upside if the fight hits the mat
DFS Perspective: Gaethje will have a clear edge in power, experience and overall striking, making him the safer DFS option with knockout upside. However, Pimblett is more live in this matchup than public perception suggests. His ability to manage distance, avoid prolonged damage and force grappling exchanges gives him legitimate leverage appeal in tournaments. If Pimblett can survive the early danger and drag Gaethje into scrambles, he has a path to a high-scoring submission win. Gaethje is the preferred play, but Pimblett is a viable contrarian DFS option.
UFC 324 Pick: Pimblett
Top UFC 324 Picks & Career Results:
2026 Overall Picks: 0-0-0 ~ Dog Picks 0-0-0
2025 Overall Picks: 345-152-2 ~ Dog Picks 53-43-2
Drake's Bets of the Week: Ricky Turcios +165
Bet of the Week Record: 0-0-0
DFS Lock of the Week: Josh Hokit
Fanduel Captain: Hokit/Nurmagomedov
Sean O'Malley (18-3-0) v. Yadong Song (22-8-1)
- Height: 5'11" – Reach: 72" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 18-3 (11 KO/TKO, 2 submission)
- Significant reach and striking creativity advantage; elite distance management and shot selection
- Grappling has improved quietly, strong defensive wrestling and opportunistic submissions when opponents overcommit
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 67" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 22-8-1 (9 KO/TKO, 3 submissions)
- Powerful, aggressive boxer with fast hands and dangerous counter striking
- Can struggle with longer fighters who maintain range and force him to reset repeatedly
DFS Perspective: O'Malley's reach, precision and evolving grappling game make him the preferred DFS side. He excels at punishing aggressive opponents who have to close distance, and Song's willingness to exchange plays into O'Malley's strengths. While Song carries knockout upside if he lands clean, O'Malley's ability to control range and mix in grappling gives him multiple paths to victory. Expect O'Malley to accumulate volume at distance and potentially find a late finish or dominant decision, making him one of the stronger DFS plays on the card.
UFC 324 Pick: O'Malley
Waldo Cortes-Acosta (16-2-0) v. Derrick Lewis (29-12-0)
- Height: 6'4" – Reach: 78" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 16-2 (8 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- Technically sound heavyweight with good footwork, hand speed, and discipline
- Controls pace well and avoids reckless exchanges, limiting opponents' knockout opportunities
- Height: 6'3" – Reach: 79" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 29-12 (24 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- All-time knockout power threat; capable of ending fights instantly with one clean shot
- Low output and defensive lapses allow faster, more disciplined opponents to outwork him
DFS Perspective: Cortes-Acosta's speed, structure and patience make him the preferred DFS option. His ability to manage distance and avoid extended brawls is critical against Lewis, whose entire win condition revolves around landing a single power shot. While Lewis always carries slate-breaking knockout upside, his low volume and reliance on chaos make him a risky DFS play. Cortes-Acosta projects well for DFS through consistent scoring, potential late finish, or a clear decision win if he sticks to his disciplined approach.
UFC 324 Pick: Cortes-Acosta
Natalia Silva (19-5-1) v. Rose Namajunas (14-7-0)
- Height: 5'4" – Reach: 65" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 19-5-1 (5 KO/TKO, 7 submissions)
- High-paced striker with speed, volume, and strong movement
- Consistently pressures opponents and forces exchanges while staying defensively responsible
- Height: 5'5" – Reach: 65" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 14-7 (2 KO/TKO, 5 submissions)
- Technically sound striker with good footwork and experience at the highest level
- Output can be inconsistent, especially against opponents who push a steady pace
DFS Perspective: Silva's speed, volume and forward pressure make her the preferred DFS side in this matchup. She's likely to control the tempo and force Namajunas into prolonged exchanges, where Silva's activity should shine. While Rose's experience and technical skill always give her a path to victory, her lower output limits DFS upside. Silva projects well for DFS through sustained volume, potential knockdowns, and a strong chance to win a decision or find a late finish.
UFC 324 Pick: Silva
Arnold Allen (20-3-0) v. Jean Silva (16-3-0)
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 20-3 (7 KO/TKO, 4 submission)
- Well-rounded fighter with strong fundamentals, cardio, and fight IQ
- Comfortable fighting at range or in the clinch, but doesn't always push a high pace
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 69" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 16-3 (12 KO/TKO, 3 submissions)
- Explosive striker with real power and speed for the division
- Aggressive style creates finishing opportunities, especially early and mid-fight
DFS Perspective: This profiles as one of the closer fights on the card, but Silva's power and speed give him the higher DFS ceiling. Allen's durability and composure make him a tough out, yet his lower output limits upside if he's forced to fight off the back foot. Silva's ability to press the action and threaten a knockout makes him the preferred DFS play, particularly in tournaments where finishing equity matters. Expect a competitive fight with Silva having the edge in damage and momentum.
UFC 324 Pick: Silva
Umar Nurmagomedov (19-1-0) v. Deiveson Figueiredo (25-5-1)
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 69" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 19-1 (2 KO/TKO, 7 submissions)
- Elite grappler with relentless pace, control, and positional dominance
- Uses length and movement well on the feet to set up takedowns and extended top control
- Height: 5'5" – Reach: 68" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 25-5-1 (9 KO/TKO, 9 submissions)
- Dangerous power and submission ability, especially early
- Likely undersized and outpaced here; struggles when forced to fight defensively for long stretches
DFS Perspective: This sets up as a strong spot for Nurmagomedov, who should control every phase of the fight. His grappling, pace and ability to dominate positionally give him a clear path to a high-scoring DFS performance through takedowns, control time and potential submission. Figueredo's explosiveness always gives him a puncher's chance, but the size, pace and stylistic mismatch make this a difficult fight for him. Nurmagomedov is one of the safer DFS plays on the card with strong ceiling potential.
UFC 324 Pick: Nurmagomedov
Ateba Gautier (9-1-0) v. Andrey Pulyaev (10-3-0)
- Height: 6'4" – Reach: 81" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 9-1 (8 KO/TKO)
- Long, explosive striker with serious power and finishing instincts
- Presses early and looks to overwhelm opponents before they can settle
- Height: 6'4" – Reach: 78" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 10-3 (6 KO/TKO, 2 submission)
- Aggressive striker who prefers exchanges and forward pressure
- Defensive gaps show when fights get chaotic, especially against longer power punchers
DFS Perspective: Gautier is the preferred DFS play, with strong early-knockout equity. His length, power and willingness to push the pace immediately align well with Pulyaev's aggressive but defensively porous style. Pulyaev does have power of his own, but Gautier's ability to strike first and strike clean makes him the higher-ceiling option. This is a prime target for early-finish upside in tournaments.
UFC 324 Pick: Gautier
Nikita Krylov (30-11-0) v. Modestas Bukauskas (19-6-0)
- Height: 6'3" – Reach: 77" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 30-11 (12 KO/TKO, 16 submissions)
- Dangerous grappler with strong finishing ability when he can force scrambles
- Defensive striking lapses and declining durability have led to recent knockout losses
- Height: 6'3" – Reach: 76" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 19-6 (11 KO/TKO, 3 submission)
- Clean, technical striker with improving confidence and timing
- Best path is keeping the fight standing and punishing Krylov's defensive openings
DFS Perspective: Krylov does have a clear path to victory if he can establish his grappling early, as his submission upside remains real. However, the more likely outcome is Bukauskas landing clean in striking exchanges. Krylov's recent knockout losses and defensive issues make him a risky DFS option, while Bukauskas carries strong finishing upside at a reasonable pace. Bukauskas is the preferred DFS play, with knockout potential making him especially attractive in tournaments.
UFC 324 Pick: Krylov
Alex Perez (25-10-0) v. Charles Johnson (18-7-0)
- Height: 5'6" – Reach: 65" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 25-10 (6 KO/TKO, 7 submissions)
- Strong grappler with good top control and submission awareness
- Has struggled with durability and consistency in recent years
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 18-7 (7 KO/TKO, 4 submission)
- Elite defensive movement and striking awareness; difficult to hit clean
- Has shown major improvements in composure, volume, and fight management since early 2024
DFS Perspective: Johnson's resurgence has been one of the more impressive developments in the division, and this matchup lines up well for him. His defense, footwork and ability to avoid damage should neutralize Perez's grappling attempts and allow him to win exchanges at range. Perez always carries some submission threat, but Johnson's defensive discipline and recent form make him the preferred DFS play. Expect Johnson to control the fight, pile up volume and continue his run with another solid win.
UFC 324 Pick: Johnson
Michael Johnson (24-19-0) v. Alexander Hernandez (18-8-0)
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 73" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 24-19 (10 KO/TKO, 2 submission)
- Fast hands and experience against elite competition
- Inconsistency, fading cardio, and defensive lapses have plagued him throughout his career
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 72" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 18-8 (8 KO/TKO, 2 submissions)
- Noticeable improvements in cardio, composure, and fight pacing
- Fighting with more structure and confidence, allowing his athleticism to shine over longer stretches
DFS Perspective: Hernandez's recent improvements make him the preferred DFS option here. His ability to maintain pace and stay disciplined over three rounds should overwhelm Johnson, who has struggled to sustain success under consistent pressure. Johnson's speed gives him moments early, but Hernandez's durability, conditioning and forward momentum give him the clearer path to victory. Hernandez projects well for DFS with strong volume and potential late-finish upside.
UFC 324 Pick: Hernandez
Josh Hokit (7-0-0) v. Denzel Freeman (7-1-0)
- Height: 6'1" – Reach: 73" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 7-0 (4 KO/TKO, 3 submissions)
- Physical heavyweight with real power and willingness to push the pace
- Looks to impose himself early and capitalize when opponents slow or make mistakes
- Height: 6'1" – Reach: 77" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 7-1 (4 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- Athletic background, but showed limited effectiveness in his UFC debut
- Defensive gaps and lack of sustained output are concerns at this level
DFS Perspective: Hokit is the preferred DFS play based on Freeman's lackluster debut and defensive issues. Hokit's pressure and power give him a better chance to dictate the fight and find a finish, particularly if Freeman struggles to settle in again. Freeman has athletic tools, but until he shows more consistency, Hokit profiles as the safer DFS option with knockout upside in a volatile heavyweight matchup.
UFC 324 Pick: Hokit
Ricky Turcios (12-5-0) v. Cameron Smotherman (12-6-0)
- Height: 5'9"– Reach: 71" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 12-5 (5 KO/TKO, 2 submissions)
- Relentless pace, high motor, and a true never-quit attitude
- Difficult to put away and does a good job surviving chaos and extended exchanges
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 69" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 12-6 (6 KO/TKO, 2 submissions)
- Aggressive striker with power and willingness to engage
- Can slow down when forced into high-volume, grinding fights
DFS Perspective: Turcios is an excellent underdog DFS target in this matchup. His durability, pace and ability to avoid knockout scenarios allow him to drag opponents into uncomfortable, high-volume fights. Smotherman's power gives him early upside, but if he can't secure a finish, Turcios' cardio and persistence should take over. Turcios offers strong leverage as a dog with a realistic path to a decision win or late stoppage.
UFC 324 Pick: Turcios
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Ty Miller (6-0-0) v. Adam Fugitt (10-5-0)
- Height: 6'2" – Reach: 77" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 6-0 (2 KO/TKO)
- Extremely fast hands with real pop; dangerous in early exchanges
- Clean combinations and athleticism should translate well at this level
- Height: 6'1" – Reach: 77" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 10-5 (5 KO/TKO, 3 submissions)
- Tough, physical fighter with solid grappling and clinch work
- Defensive striking issues show up against faster, sharper punchers
DFS Perspective: Miller is the preferred DFS play in his debut. His hand speed and power give him a clear advantage on the feet, especially against a hittable opponent like Fugitt. Fugitt's toughness could extend the fight, but Miller's ability to land first and land clean makes him the higher-ceiling option. Miller profiles well for DFS tournaments with early-finish upside and strong debut potential.
UFC 324 Pick: Miller
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and be worth 0.4 points in total.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
