UFC futures betting is a great way to build up your MMA portfolio while there's a break in the action until late-January, but it's important to understand a key strategy piece. We're not picking the best or most deserving fighters in each division, but rather those who have a clear path to fighting for, and retaining, the championship belt.
Take lightweight, for example. With Islam Makhachev moving up and Ilia Topuria vacating, Arman Tsarukyan is the most talented and deserving fighting in the division. But, the UFC needs to make a splash in its first Paramount+ card, so Justin Gaethje and Paddy Pimblett will be fighting for the vacant belt.
The winner would be an underdog against Tsarukyan, but after Arman pulled out of his last title shot, and considering he isn't the most marketable or exciting, who's to say he gets a shot at the winner? Topuria's return will play a role, and a huge name like Max Holloway is still lurking in the background. If Tsarukyan does get a shot against the Topuria vs. Gaethje/Pimblett winner, who's to say that happens before the end of 2026?
Effectively, this column (and series) will look for fighters who have a clear path to the top. The longer shots, of course, will need a few more dominoes to fall.
UFC Futures: Best Bets to Hold the Belt at Year's End
Below are four fighters across key men's divisions who have a realistic path to ending the year as champion, with odds that still offer value if things break the right way.
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Women's Strawweight Champion - Zhang Weili (+150)
Mackenzie Dern became strawweight champion at UFC 321 in October and doesn't have a title defense scheduled at time of publication. Dern has improved her striking and is excellent on the mat, but if there was an "anyone but Dern" bet to close the year as champion, I'd take it. While marketable, her overall skill set doesn't scream "long-term champion" to me.
The two fighters who have a chance to dethrone her are Zhang Weili (+150) and Tatiana Suarez (+500). Zhang attempted to move to flyweight in November and was beaten handily by Valentina Shevchenko -- that division simply isn't for her. If she can make the cut back to 115 pounds, it's easy to see the UFC giving her another shot -- potentially at one of the events set in China.
Suarez at (+500) is another possible pick if Zhang isn't ready or doesn't want to move back down. She'd be favored against Dern, but considering Suarez was embarrassed by Zhang in her title shot, the UFC would seemingly pick Zhang first. And if Zhang wins, Suarez likely wouldn't get a rematch.
If (or when) Zhang regains the belt, there's not a fighter at 115 that she would be the underdog against. The only leap we have to make here is that she can (and will) move back to strawweight, which seems to me like the only logical career path for her (provided she doesn't hang up the gloves at the age of 36).
UFC Betting Futures Pick: Zhang Weili (+150)
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Featherweight Champion - Movsar Evloev (+350)
Evloev falls a bit into the Tsarukyan trap mentioned above -- he isn't super exciting or well-known. But he's just as deserving of a shot after starting his UFC run with a 9-0 record, and unlike Tsarukyan, he hasn't backed out of a title shot in the past.
Alexander Volkanovski (+170) and Diego Lopes (+200) are fighting for the belt on Jan. 31, which means potentially one, if not two, more featherweight title bouts in 2026. Volkanovski is getting up there in age (37), while I don't think Lopes has the mat skills to defend against a fighter like Evloev.
Lerone Murphy (+300) might get the shot first since he's a bit more exciting than Evloev, but if the UFC does make two more title fights at 145 pounds, it won't be able to deny Evloev for long. Plus, I'm not sure Murphy would be favored in a title fight. Evloev would be.
Evloev is the No. 1 contender so he could very well wait, but there's also a scenario in which he takes care of another contender and is ready to fight for the belt again in the winter. At +350, it's certainly worth a shot.
UFC Betting Futures Pick: Movsar Evloev (+350)
Heavyweight Champion - Alex Pereira (+1100)
It's time for a long shot. Pereira suffered a fractured foot in his UFC 320 victory over Magomed Ankalaev, so he'll be sidelined until mid-2026 at the best. What he does from there is the question mark.
Pereira has essentially cleaned out the men's 205-pound division. I don't think anyone is clamoring for a trilogy fight against Ankalaev. He could fight someone like Carlos Ulberg, but I'm not sure that moves the needle for fans. The other possibility is Khamzat Chimaev moving up to try to become double-champ. If that happens, would Pereira want that fight coming off injury, or would he consider testing the waters at heavyweight?
At heavyweight, the UFC first has to settle the score between Tom Aspinall and Ciryl Gane. That may take some time with Aspinall recovering from eye surgery. Will he be ready in time for the rumored White House card in the summer of 2026? Or will they do an interim fight?
I'm not holding my breath for a Jon Jones return, especially if it's against Gane, who Bones has already defeated handily. And if Bones does return, it would likely be one-and-done, which would open the division back up. So that leaves us three scenarios:
- Aspinall is healthy, faces Gane at the White House. Pereira could face the winner towards the end of the year.
- Aspinall is not healthy. Bones vs. Pereira for the interim happens at the White House. I'd pick Pereira, and he could then perhaps unite the belt against Aspinall before 2026 ends.
- Neither Aspinall or Pereira are healthy for a White House card, and Bones doesn't come out of retirement. Aspinall/Gane still happens in August/September, leaving a brief window for Pereira to get the winner before the end of 2026.
All three scenarios -- with No. 3 being the toughest squeeze -- result in Pereira getting a shot if he chooses to move up. Given that he's now one of the company's biggest stars, he'll get the opportunity wherever he wants to go.
If it's heavyweight, I believe his power will carry over, as he's always had incredibly difficult weight cuts and typically looks like the bigger man in the cage. But his speed will be the biggest advantage. I'll pick him over any of the aforementioned names if he moves up.
UFC Betting Futures Pick: Alex Pereira (+1100)
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2026 UFC Futures Betting Picks Summary
- Women's Strawweight Champion Pick: Zhang Weili (+150)
- Featherweight Champion Pick: Movsar Evloev (+350)
- Heavyweight Champion Pick: Alex Pereira (+1100)
