Top Picks and Predictions for UFC Vegas 112: Royval vs. Kape
The UFC returns to the Apex for its final card of 2025, which features 13 fights from which we can potentially profit. We'll break down each bout across three platforms, including a heavyweight underdog and a fixture at strawweight looking to leap into title contention. Our betting lines this week come from the RotoWire MMA betting page and are accurate to the post date of this article.
UFC Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Joanderson Brito ($9,000)
Brito's power, athleticism, and wrestling ability make him a standout in most contexts. He will be even more desirable given that his opponent, Isaac Thomson, took this fight on less than a week's notice after Melsik Baghdasaryan needed to withdraw from the bout. Thomson is a competent boxer and pressure fighter, but I don't expect him to be able to deal with the physicality of a fighter like Brito on such short notice.
Allen Frye ($7,600)
Guilherme Pat stands straight up to deliver his powerful strikes, gambling that he will be able to return to his feet after being taken down. He will need to deal with a persistent attack from Frye, who will mix his boxing and wrestling while pouring on the pressure. It should also be noted that Frye has a much stronger strength of schedule on the regional scene, as Pat has never faced a fighter with a winning record.
Luana Santos ($8,500)
Santos thrives in fights where she can throw big shots in the pocket before finding the clinch. Melissa Croden likes to lean on her physicality and look for the Thai clinch, but she draws an opponent here who is more than happy to tie up. I expect Santos to win the wrestling exchanges after scoring well from range.
Jamey-Lyn Horth ($7,900)
Tereza Bleda has very little depth to her game, meaning that she can find herself on an island if she is unable to force grappling exchanges. While she will enjoy advantages in both height and reach, Bleda will close that distance for Horth, allowing her to sting the Czech fighter on the way in. Horth is also much more of a control grappler, while Bleda has gassed herself out looking for constant takedowns in the past.
Melquizael Costa ($8,200)
Costa showed in his last bout with Julian Erosa that he is more than just a grappler, as he used his frame and long boxing combinations to land 128 significant strikes in a dominant decision victory. Morgan Charriere has shown himself to be a bit of a frontrunner who struggles in the face of aggressive opponents. Expect Costa to control the range on the feet before taking over the fight with his grappling.
King Green ($9,000)
The short-notice nature of this fight is a bit confusing, but even a diminished Green will likely have the speed to best Lance Gibson, who is a grappler by trade and tends to leave his chin in the air while in the pocket. While Green has been finished in three of his last four fights, those opponents all contained elite skill sets. The veteran will not see that here.
Marcus Almeida ($7,800)
Kennedy Nzechukwu has come a long way from the fighter who was submitted by Paul Craig, but he can still fall into the trap of allowing his opponent to lead the dance. "Buchecha" is incredibly tough and won't stop swinging hammers until he works his way into range. He also won't stop fighting when he gets tired, which will allow him to press his attack into Round 2 and beyond.
Cezary Oleksiejczuk ($8,700)
Oleksiejczuk should be light on his feet in front of the plodding Cesar Almeida, who is powerful but can get caught watching his opponents. The Polish fighter can do a bit of everything in the cage and should be a step ahead of Almeida from the opening bell.
Try out these recommended fighters with different lineup combinations on our DraftKings UFC Lineup Optimizer.
UFC Plays to Consider on PrizePicks - Significant Strikes
Yaroslav Amosov UNDER 24.5 Significant Strikes, Kevin Vallejos OVER 56.5 Significant Strikes, and Manel Kape UNDER 88.5 Significant Strikes
Amosov's entrance into the UFC against a strong gatekeeper like Neil Magny likely means that the former Bellator welterweight champion will be thrown into the title picture with a victory. Look for the Ukranian fighter to hang back as he attempts to navigate a five-inch reach deficit. I expect both men to press a perceived grappling advantage here, which should work to keep totals low.
Vallejos will likely use his crisp, fast hands in his bout against Giga Chikadze, who we have seen more hesitant to throw at this stage of his career. Expect Vallejos to net a comprehensive three-round decision here that consists mostly of striking.
We have seen Kape take cautious approaches in the past, and a four-inch height disadvantage will likely discourage "Starboy" from closing the distance. If he cannot figure out how to get on the inside, Brandon Royval will likely pour on the volume while slowing the pace with his grappling.
Interested in backing these or other selections on sites like PrizePicks? Check out the Best MMA Picks & Prop Bets by comparing lines to our projections using the RotoWire Picks & Props tool.
UFC Bets to Consider
Gillian Robertson Wins via Submission (+230)
The movement and athleticism of Amanda Lemos may give Robertson problems initially, but "The Savage" seems to have finally turned a corner on her striking, as she can work behind a jab and corral opponents to the side of the Octagon with her footwork. Lemos will still be the superior kickboxer here, but we can't forget that she was controlled for a whopping 9:34 in her fight with Tatiana Suarez in September and was submitted by Virna Jandiroba in July 2024.
Sean Sharaf Wins via KO/TKO (+375)
Consider this pick my formal protest against heavyweights who are big favorites on the line and have less-than-stellar resumes. Steven Asplund is a decent heavyweight boxer with power in his hands, but you only need to look back two fights to find him mounted and controlled for the entirety of Round 1. He was also submitted by recent UFC debutante Denzel Freeman in 2024. Sharaf is nothing if not aggressive, can work a wrestling game, and has finished all four of his victories by KO/TKO. That is enough to take a shot at long odds.
For more UFC wagers to consider, check out our MMA Best Bets for UFC Vegas 112 this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
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