This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
UFC 311 Fight Breakdowns & DFS Picks: Drake's Takes
The top UFC betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC 311 card are up, as well as breakdowns of betting and lineup strategy, plus predictions for the entire event.
2025 Overall Picks: 8-6 ~ Dog Picks 1-2
Drake's Bet of the Week: Prochazka +110 ~ 1-0 +158
DFS Lock of the Week: Almeida
Fanduel Captain: Almeida/Makhachev
Tagir Ulanbekov (15-2-0) v. Clayton Carpenter (8-0-0)
Tagir Ulanbekov - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 70" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 15 wins
Clayton Carpenter - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 66" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 8 wins
DFS Perspective: Carpenter has impressed in his two UFC wins, finishing both by early submission, and is absolutely a live dog going into this fight. However, Ulanbekov is likely a test too tall for the undefeated fighter. He has already starched several high-level grapplers in his career, and I see this fight going in his favor.
UFC 311 Pick: Ulanbekov
Ricky Turcios (12-4-0) v. Bernardo Sopaj (11-3-0)
Ricky Turcios - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 4 finishes in 12 wins
Bernardo Sopaj - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 66" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 11 wins
DFS Perspective: Turcios cannot seem to get rolling in the UFC. He is a tough fighter, and he keeps things close, but is unable to take that next step. Sopaj has had an impressive start to his MMA career but unfortunately lost his debut to a last-second flying knee. I would not be surprised to see Turcios pull out the win, but he will need a different game plan, and I do not see it happening. I like Sopaj to get his first UFC win.
UFC 311 Pick: Sopaj
Rinya Nakamura (9-0-0) v. Muin Gafurov (9-0-0)
Rinya Nakamura - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 68" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 9 wins
Muin Gafurov - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 68" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 17 finishes in 19 wins
DFS Perspective: Gafurov got his first UFC win last time, but nothing about it says he can beat Nakamura. Nakamura should retain his perfect record, and I would not be surprised to see him end this early, scoring well for DFS.
UFC 311 Pick: Nakamura
Karol Rosa (18-6-0) v. Ailin Perez (11-2-0)
Karol Rosa - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 67" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 18 wins
Ailin Perez - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 66" – Switch
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 11 wins
DFS Perspective: Perez will be one of the most popular dog plays on the slate, and I would not be surprised to see her become one of the most heavily owned. She has won four in a row, with the most recent by submission. However, Rosa will be her toughest fight to date, and I am not sure she will get through it. Rosa will be leagues better in striking, and she should have enough game on the ground to avoid being pinned down for long if she gets taken down.
UFC 311 Pick: Rosa
Grant Dawson (22-2-1) v. Diego Ferreira (19-5-0)
Grant Dawson - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 72" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 19 finishes in 22 wins
Carlos Diego Ferreira - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 74" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 19 wins
DFS Perspective: Ferreira looked incredible in his last fight, dominating three rounds and recording a knockout with nine seconds left in the fight. It is probably the best he has ever looked in his career, and I would be surprised to see a repeat performance. Dawson has one loss in the UFC, and it was a lucky knockout. He got right back on track in his next two fights, and this fight should not be any different. The winner of this fight could score exceptionally well for DFS, particularly if Dawson chains takedowns and control time.
UFC 311 Pick: Dawson
Zach Reese (8-1-0) v. Azamat Bekoev (18-3-0)
Zachary Reese - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 77" – Switch
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 8 wins
Azamat Bekoev - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 14 finishes in 18 wins
DFS Perspective: Reese is kind of getting the short end of the stick with his replacement fighter. He has won two in a row after his debut loss but now draws Bekoev, who is making his debut on short notice. Bekoev is a champ in the LFA promotion and is the favorite to win this fight. Both guys are dangerous, and someone is likely to finish early, making this a solid fight to target for DFS.
UFC 311 Pick: Bekoev
Jailton Almeida (21-3-0) v. Serghei Spivac (17-4-0)
Jailton Almeida - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 79" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 20 finishes in 21 wins
Serghei Spivac - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 78" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 15 finishes in 17 wins
DFS Perspective: Spivac's best chance to win this fight is to catch Almeida as he goes for a takedown. However, I do not see it happening. Almeida should have no issue taking Spivac down and keeping him there. Once he gets a mount, I expect him to dominate with ground-and-pound. Almeida is my lock for DFS.
UFC 311 Pick: Almeida
Payton Talbott (9-0-0) v. Raoni Barcelos (18-5-0)
Payton Talbott - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 70" – Switch
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 9 wins
Raoni Barcelos - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 67" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 18 wins
DFS Perspective: This is just another stepping stone for Talbott's path to being ranked. Barcelos' career will surely begin winding down, and although he did look good in his last fight, I do not expect Talbott to have any issues. Talbott may not get the quick-win bonus, but I can absolutely see him ending this in the first round again.
UFC 311 Pick: Talbott
Bogdan Guskov (16-3-0) v. Billy Elekana (7-1-0)
Bogdan Guskov - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 76" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 16 finishes in 16 wins
Billy Elekana - Height: 6'2" - Reach: N/A – Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 16 finishes in 16 wins
DFS Perspective: This should be a scrap for as long as it lasts. Both guys are dangerous on the feet, and someone is likely to get knocked out in Round 1. Elekana is taking this fight on short notice and is making his UFC debut, while Guskov has won two in a row by knockout after losing his debut. I prefer the fighter with the experience and full camp. Get both pieces in GPP contests.
UFC 311 Pick: Guskov
Kevin Holland (26-12-0) v. Reinier de Ridder (18-2-0)
Kevin Holland - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 81" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 22 finishes in 26 wins
Reinier de Ridder - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 78" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 16 finishes in 18 wins
DFS Perspective: I do not trust Holland in any fights anymore. He tends not to take things seriously and seems to just fight for paychecks now. Ridder has a clear path to winning on the mat, and I expect him to take it there early and often. I would not be surprised to see him outpoint Holland on the feet, either. Ridder is one of the best sneaky plays on the slate.
UFC 311 Pick: de Ridder
Beneil Dariush (22-6-1) v. Renato Moicano (20-5-1)
Beneil Dariush - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 72" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 22 wins
Renato Moicano - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 20 wins
DFS Perspective: Dariush has been knocked out badly in back-to-back fights, and most are starting to think he has run out of gas. On the other hand, Moicano is trending the complete opposite way, winning four in a row, with the last two coming by knockout. The fight is almost scripted for Moicano to record another knockout.
UFC 311 Pick: Moicano
Jiri Prochazka (30-5-1) v. Jamahal Hill (12-2-0)
Jiri Prochazka - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 80" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 29 finishes in 30 wins
Jamahal Hill - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 79" – Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: This is an interesting fight. It could go either way, as both are dangerous finishers coming off losses to Alex Pereira. I still firmly believe Hill is not as good as he thinks he is. He could catch the unorthodox Prochazka, but Prochazka is more likely to catch him. Either way, someone will likely go down early, making both guys a solid play for GPP contests.
UFC 311 Pick: Prochazka
Merab Dvalishvili (18-4-0) v. Umar Nurmagomedov (18-0-0)
Merab Dvalishvili - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 68" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 4 finishes in 18 wins
Umar Nurmagomedov - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 69" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 18 wins
DFS Perspective: Dvalishvili has been my staple pick since joining the UFC. He has arguably the best cardio in the UFC and incredible wrestling. Nurmagomedov has taken down every competitor he has faced and is finally getting his title shot. It is hard to envision Dvalishvili keeping hold of Nurmagomedov for long periods, which likely leads to his downfall. The difference in this fight should come from striking, which Nurmagomedov has the edge in. It will not be a surprise to see either guy win, and whoever does will score very well for DFS.
UFC 311 Pick: Nurmagomedov
Islam Makhachev (26-1-0) v. Arman Tsarukyan (22-3-0)
Islam Makhachev - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 70" – Southpaw
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 17 finishes in 26 wins
Arman Tsarukyan - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 14 finishes in 22 wins
DFS Perspective: I expect this rematch to be nearly as close as their first fight. Their strengths are similar, and neither really has a weakness. Makhachev has proven his mettle by beating the best of the best in this division, and I see no rhyme or reason for losing this fight unless he makes a mistake. Five rounds of back and forth between these two should give solid scores for both fighters for DFS.
UFC 311 Pick: Makhachev
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and be worth 0.4 points in total.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
