UFC 311 Preview and Predictions: The MMA Mashup
The first pay-per-view of the year is upon us, featuring two of the most intriguing title fights in the sport. We'll cover those and every other bout on the 14-fight slate, including an often-discounted veteran and a young flyweight looking to take the division by storm. Our betting line this week comes from the RotoWire MMA Betting Page and is accurate to the post date of this article
Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Islam Makhachev ($9,400)
The rematch against Arman Tsarukyan is a bit more intriguing than this price would suggest, as "Ahalkalakets" is the only fighter who can match the champion's strength in grappling positions. Still, what's noticeable between Makhachev now and the version who fought in 2019 is just how far his striking has come. There were many times in the first meeting when Arman could get in on Makhachev's hips after a wild, lunging strike. I don't anticipate the same sloppiness from the Dagestani here, as he has learned to fight behind a jab and set up his shots. This should result in a much more comprehensive victory over five rounds.
Umar Nurmagomedov ($9,200)
Merab Dvalishvili has been such a dominant force as bantamweight champion that it seems strange that he would be such a large underdog here. With all due respect to "The Machine," however, his rise to the top is primarily owing to his ability to work tirelessly in the cage, while Nurmagomedov is a far more complete martial artist who will be able to challenge him in the grappling department. Throw in a pronounced speed advantage, and it becomes clear why the odds are on the side of the undefeated challenger who has never been taken down in his six UFC contests.
Azamat Bekoev ($8,800)
While not typical, it is sometimes the case that if a fighter is added to the slate after salaries are announced, opponents in a bout can both be listed at underdog odds. However, I can't recall a situation where both fighters are listed so highly, as replacement opponents are unlikely to be favorites on the money line. That's the case with Bekoev, who comes into this bout at 18-3, riding a six-fight winning streak. Zachary Reese has managed to put together a couple of wins after his debut loss to Cody Brundage, but he remains the same upright fighter who forgoes defense and sells out to get the fight to the ground. Unless Bekoev gets tired, expect him to stalk Reese on a seek-and-destroy mission, mixing in his own takedowns along the way.
Ricky Turcios ($6,900)
I picked Turcios in his matchup with Bernardo Sopaj when his price was $7,200, so it only makes sense to take the discount here. My analysis hasn't changed since the cancelation in November, as Bernardo Sopaj swings big in the pocket but got noticeably fatigued before being knocked out in his fight against Vinicius Oliveira. Turcios will try to impose his will from the opening bell, which could leave Sopaj on empty once again.
Rinya Nakamura ($9,600)
Muin Gafurov can only be the hammer if he isn't made the nail, as he recorded five takedowns in his debut against Chad Anheliger and gave up three takedowns apiece in fights against John Castaneda and Kyung Ho Kang. Nakamura is explosive in every phase of the bout and should use his speed and superior grappling to win this fight however he chooses. That makes the Japanese fighter an excellent cash play with upside for GPP tournaments.
Jailton Almeida ($9,500)
Once he gets in the cage, Almeida is a cyclone, furiously chasing takedowns until he finds a finish. Serghei Spivac is a fellow grappler by trade, but the strength advantage should simply be too much here. There is always a danger that the Brazilian will get tired if the fight isn't going his way. However, I expect the train to roll downhill from the opening bell, resulting in a big score for one of heavyweight's most imposing figures.
Clayton Carpenter ($7,300)
Carpenter looks like a specimen at flyweight as an athletic, powerful striker who can wrestle when needed. That athleticism should pay big dividends against Tagir Ulanbekov, who plods forward and uses his length to excel on the ground. The scrambles in this matchup will be interesting, to say the least, making this price well worth taking when we consider Carpenter's profound advantages on the feet.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Significant Strikes
Renato Moicano OVER 45.5 Significant Strikes, Raoni Barcelos OVER 39.5 Significant Strikes, and Karol Rosa UNDER 79.5 Significant Strikes
Moicano is a BJJ player, first and foremost, but has never been shy about standing in the pocket and kickboxing for long periods. There are few better pure jiu-jitsu players in the division than Beneil Dariush, and the mutual respect these two are sure to have for each other on the ground makes me think that we will see this fight take place at range for the better part of 15 minutes.
Barcelos' star has faded after a promising debut that grew into a six-fight win streak, but the Brazilian is still a slick striker who is extraordinarily tough, having been knocked out just once in 23 professional fights. This should ensure fireworks with budding sensation Payton Talbott, who throws in combination until his opponent wilts. As long as his toughness holds, Barcelos should easily exceed his total here.
Her volume and activity have marked Karol Rosa's UFC career, but Ailin Perez has been a tank in the UFC cage, having shot for as many as 15 takedowns in a three-round fight. All that wrestling will severely limit Rosa's output, even if she does manage to stay on her feet.
Plays to Consider On Prize Picks - Fight Time
Bogdan Guskov OVER 4.75 Minutes of Fight Time, and Jamahal Hill UNDER 9.75 Minutes of Fight Time.
Guskov is a heavy hitter, even by the standards of light heavyweight. Still, newcomer Billy Elekana is a counterfighter at heart, hanging back and relying on defense until his opponent engages. The fact that "Czarevitch" will find himself without a willing dance partner out of the gate should extend this fight past the first round.
The dynamic is similar for Hill's fight with Jiri Prochazka, but these two fighters will have much more time to work. Jiri could be tentative after his most recent knockout loss to Alex Pereira, though I doubt he will take too long before becoming the whirlwind of offense we have seen in the past.
Bets to Consider
Carlos Diego Ferreira wins via KO/TKO (+700)
As dominant as Grant Dawson is when he takes the fight to the ground, we've seen no evidence that he has figured out what to do when forced to stand with a dangerous striker. Ferreira hits incredibly hard and possesses all the skills to survive on the ground and get back to his feet. We've seen Dawson tire late in fights when he has been made to work, and The Brazilian has been known to handle adversity and turn the tide in his favor.
Kevin Holland wins via KO/TKO (+225)
It brings a smile to my face to know that a fighter who hates being wrestled now faces an opponent in Reinier de Ridder who will try to do nothing but bring the fight to the floor for 15 minutes. "The Dutch Knight" can make opponents miserable on the mat, but even against a relatively light puncher in Gerald Meerschaert, he was in trouble when this fight was at range. While Holland can get stuck on his back, this has generally been done by superior control grapplers who are not constantly looking for submissions.
For more UFC wagers to consider, check out our UFC 311 Best Bets for this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
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