UFC 315 Preview and Predictions: The MMA Mashup
Two title fights greet bettors and DFS players atop the UFC 315 card. We will break down those fights along with the rest of the slate across three platforms, detailing the best places to find profit. Our picks include a cardio machine looking to silence the critics, and a big puncher who aims to right the ship at middleweight. Our betting line this week comes from the RotoWire MMA betting page and is accurate to the post date of this article.
UFC Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Belal Muhammad ($8,700)
Muhammad getting tarred with the "boring fighter" brush has likely gotten us a discount in a nice matchup. The welterweight champion combines unrelenting pressure with good wrestling, ever-improving boxing, and five-round cardio. Jack Della Maddalena will have the edge when it comes to striking and power, but getting controlled for 6:49 by Bassil Hafez before being taken down seven times against Gilbert Burns doesn't inspire confidence that he will be able to deal with a strong grappler for 25 minutes. Unless Maddalena can finish early, "Remember The Name" looks primed to put up a big score here.
Charlie Radtke ($7,300)
Mike Malott's status as a can't-miss prospect has likely influenced the line here, as Radtke's fast hands, power, and ability to cut off the cage have produced wins over every opponent except dynamic finisher Carlos Prates. Malott looked to be that kind of presence early on, but he fought as though he was afraid to get tired against Trevin Giles after gassing out versus Neil Magny, which led to the journeyman boxer bloodying his face with crisp jabs. "Proper" needs to show that he has put his loss to Magny behind him before I can trust him as a sizeable favorite, particularly against a fighter as dangerous as Radtke.
Brad Katona ($7,600)
Landing one big shot against Umar Nurmagomedov isn't enough to sell me on Bekzat Almakhan being a solid favorite over Katona, who has shown the ability to marry his striking and wrestling with suffocating pressure. Almakhan is a dangerous opponent, but he relies too much on heavy, singular strikes. While Katona has had issues hanging around in the pocket after throwing shots, I trust the work rate, wrestling, and toughness to win the day for the former TUF champion.
Jeong Yeong Lee ($7,900)
I would be much more confident in this pick if Lee hadn't inexplicably chosen to brawl in his knockout loss to Hyder Amil. Still, Daniel Santos' success to this point has relied on his physicality and ability to pressure, neither of which should be available in this matchup. Lee will enter the cage with a whopping six-inch reach advantage, which should make it difficult for the Brazilian to get on the inside. Lee should have a nice bounce-back performance if he can keep his range and use his strength when necessary.
Jasmine Jasudavicius ($9,200)
Things could get a bit dicey if Jasudavicius doesn't start wrestling early, but as long as she doesn't allow herself to get backed up, the Canadian local should smother Jessica Andrade with her wrestling and top pressure. The former strawweight champion has looked out of sorts even when getting the kind of fight she wants lately. This, combined with Jasmine's six-inch height advantage, should mitigate the damage she could potentially take at range.
Try out these recommended fighters with different lineup combinations on our DraftKings UFC Lineup Optimizer.
UFC Plays to Consider on PrizePicks - Significant Strikes
Ivan Erslan OVER 26.5 Significant Strikes, Alexa Grasso UNDER 52.5 Significant Strikes, and Jose Aldo OVER 52.5 Significant Strikes
This line suggests that Navajo Stirling finishes Erslan early, but I doubt that his methodical kickboxing will result in consistent stoppages at the highest level. Erslan is a solid boxer with a crisp jab and solid low kicks. He should be able to compensate for his sizeable reach disadvantage, as he is only giving up two inches in height here.
Our number here seems odd based on Natalia Silva's history, as she has never been hit with more than 50 significant strikes in her six UFC contests. While Grasso has a boxing-centric style, Silva will have a demonstrable speed advantage, which will likely necessitate that the former champion wrestle for the better part of 15 minutes.
Aiemann Zahabi is a perfect matchup for Aldo, as he will stay relatively stationary at range and let "The King of Rio" pick his shots over three rounds. Zahabi's only knockout loss in his 13-fight career came in 2017. This toughness should ensure that the Canadian fighter is in the fight to absorb all that his opponent has to offer.
Interested in backing this or other selections on sites like PrizePicks? Check out the Best MMA Picks & Prop Bets by comparing lines to our projections using the RotoWire Picks & Props tool.
UFC Plays to Consider on PrizePicks - Takedowns
Valentina Shevchenko UNDER 2.5 Takedowns, Ion Cutelaba OVER 1.0 Takedowns, and Benoit Saint-Denis UNDER 1.5 Takedowns
This line seems to run contrary to Shevchenko's status as an underdog, as I imagine she will win the fight if she can ground Manon Fiorot three times or more. The French fighter is far too agile compared to the veteran's Muay Thai style, which will likely allow her to deny entries from the flyweight champion. It should also be noted that Fiorot has only been taken down once in her seven UFC fights, which speaks to her strength and superior defense.
Cutelaba faces an opponent in Modestas Bukauskas who keeps range with a wide karate stance. This should allow "The Hulk" to snatch single legs at his leisure. There is a danger that Cutelaba finds a knockout before getting this fight to the ground, but he has been a bit more methodical of late and should allow wrestling opportunities to develop.
Kyle Prepolec pressures opponents from the opening bell, which should make it difficult for Saint-Denis to find space to shoot takedowns. The French fighter has never been shy about throwing hands, and an early exchange that leads to an all-out brawl is the most likely scenario here.
UFC Bets to Consider
Bruno Silva Wins via KO/TKO (+225)
Silva had trouble getting his offense going in his loss to Ismail Naurdiev, but still showcased athleticism, a stiff jab, and the ability to extricate himself from clinch situations. The latter will be important against Marc-Andre Barriault, whose style of charging forward to work his opponent against the fence has become a liability as his durability has faded. If he can keep his back off the fence, Silva has more than enough power to deliver Barriault's third consecutive knockout loss.
For more UFC wagers to consider, check out our MMA Best Bets for UFC 315 this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
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