This article is part of our NASCAR DFS series.
NASCAR Cup Series Championship
Location: Avondale, Ariz.
Course: Phoenix Raceway
Format: 1.0-mile oval
Laps: 312
Race Preview
Ryan Blaney forced his way into the championship fight with a determined victory a week ago at Martinsville to join Kyle Larson and Christopher Bell in having won their way into this week's NASCAR Cup Series Championship. William Byron was the fourth driver to make it in after surviving a tense final segment, holding enough points to ensure Denny Hamlin couldn't overtake him in the standings. With the championship field now set, all eyes are firmly focused on Phoenix Raceway. The series champion has won the race each of the prior times the track has hosted the finale, and this year's champion is likely to have to do the same. The gauntlet will be thrown down in qualifying with the fastest championship contender getting first choice of pit stall. The advantage of that first pit stall at this track shouldn't be underestimated either. All three NASCAR champions last season qualified on pole, selected the first pit stall, and went on to win their respective races and championships. That early advantage could prove pivotal in Sunday's outcome, so it will be crucial for fantasy players to monitor which of the championship hopefuls gets off to the quickest start, beginning with qualifying.
Key Stats at Phoenix Raceway
- Number of races: 54
- Winners from pole: 7
- Winners from top-5 starters: 22
- Winners from top-10 starters: 31
- Winners from 21st or lower starters: 4
- Fastest race: 118.132 mph
Previous 10 Phoenix Winners
2023 spring - William Byron
2022 fall - Joey Logano
2022 spring - Chase Briscoe
2021 fall - Kyle Larson
2021 spring - Martin Truex Jr.
2020 fall - Chase Elliott
2020 spring - Joey Logano
2019 fall - Denny Hamlin
2019 spring - Kyle Busch
2018 fall - Kyle Busch
Phoenix Raceway's relatively flat 1.0 mile oval with differing corners awaits this week to decide the 2023 champion. Despite being flat, the track's wide turns offer plenty of opportunities for drivers to attempt passes. Arguably the most distinct feature of the Phoenix layout is its lack of an out-of-bounds rule. That approach is especially apparent at turn 1 where almost limitless options are available to drivers to gain an advantage. Regardless, track position is still one of the most important advantages everyone will be seeking on Sunday. Races at this track are disproportionately won by drivers starting inside the top 10. Though less likely, teams that don't qualify well still have an opportunity to make adjustments throughout the race than they have in the past. Tire strategy, like we saw last week at Martinsville, could come into play this week, too. Caution periods will offer teams an opportunity to go off strategy to gain an advantage, but in the final miles, track position is likely to be the biggest factor in the race's outcome.
RotoWire NASCAR DFS Tools
DraftKings Value Picks for the NASCAR Cup Series Championship (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
DraftKings Tier 1 Values
Kyle Larson - $11,500
Ryan Blaney - $11,300
William Byron - $11,200
Christopher Bell - $10,800
DraftKings Tier 2 Values
Joey Logano - $9,800
Kevin Harvick - $9,500
Tyler Reddick - $9,200
Brad Keselowski - $9,000
DraftKings Tier 3 Values
Kyle Busch - $8,800
Chase Elliott - $8,600
Ross Chastain - $8,400
Chris Buescher - $8,100
DraftKings Long-Shot Values
Chase Briscoe - $7,500
Daniel Suarez - $6,900
Ryan Preece - $6,300
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. - $6,100
NASCAR DFS Picks for the NASCAR Cup Series Championship
Lower-Risk Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
William Byron - $11,200
Kevin Harvick - $9,500
Chase Elliott - $8,600
Chris Buescher - $8,100
Ryan Preece - $6,300
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. - $6,100
Though William Byron (DK $11,200, FD $13,000) was the last of the championship contenders to gain entry to the finale, he has arguably been the best of the bunch this season. He leads the season in victories and has been atop the standings for much of the playoffs. While he hasn't had as much time to prepare specifically for Phoenix, he might have gotten everything he needed done when he won there earlier this season. He'll likely have to sweep race wins at the track to claim his first series championship, but when looking at the statistics, Byron makes a nice top choice as your 2023 Cup Series champion. Fantasy players should also consider the most successful active driver at Phoenix, Kevin Harvick (DK $9,500, FD $11,000). Still winless in his final full-time season, it would be fitting for the nine-time winner at the track to visit Victory Lane in his last series start. He led 36 laps and finished fifth in the spring. Chase Elliott (DK $8,600, FD $9,000) won at Phoenix and collected the championship in doing so. He will be in full support of his teammates this week, though. There are different scenarios that could play out for him to be involved, but arguably the easiest and best decision for him would be to try to win. He missed the spring race due to injury, but is a consistent top-10 finisher there through the last few seasons.
Another driver capable of a top-10 Phoenix showing would be Chris Buescher (DK $8,100, FD $7,800). He might have been a championship spoiler had he advanced to the finale, but he can still play a role. Buescher finished 10th at the track last spring, and was 15th there earlier this season. Ryan Preece (DK $6,300, FD $6,000) should also be a top-15 contender. His best Phoenix finish came earlier this season when he finished 12th, and he also finished in the top 15 in three of the last five races leading into this race. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (DK $6,100, FD $5,800) thus makes a logical choice further down the order for his ability to bring home a top-20. He finished 19th at Phoenix in the spring and his best finish at the track was a top-five finish back in 2017.
Higher-Risk Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
Ryan Blaney - $11,300
Joey Logano - $9,800
Ty Gibbs - $8,000
Chase Briscoe - $7,500
Alex Bowman - $7,100
AJ Allmendinger - $6,200
Ryan Blaney (DK $11,300, FD $13,500) made no doubt of his intention to be among the final four championship contenders. His quest through the final round of elimination races built to its climax with a win last week at Martinsville. That victory gives him the upper hand with momentum coming into the weekend. Add to that momentum his enviable finishing streak at Phoenix and you have a top championship choice. Blaney has never won at Phoenix, but he has four straight top-fives including back-to-back runner-up finishes at the track in his last four visits. Don't underestimate Blaney this week. Backing him up will be teammate, and last year's champion, Joey Logano (DK $9,800, FD $10,500). This Team Penske organization knows how to get the most out of a visit to Phoenix and all of Logano's support will be available to Blaney. Logano himself is a three-time Phoenix winner with nine straight Phoenix finishes of 11th or better leading up to Sunday. Ty Gibbs (DK $8,000, FD $7,000) knows how to win at Phoenix during the championship weekend, too. He won last years Xfinity Series title from pole, and has been finishing his rookie Cup Series campaign with some impressive results. His only start at Phoenix in this series was this spring when he finished 14th, but he has been improving each subsequent track visit.
Chase Briscoe (DK $7,500, FD $8,500) is also worth fantasy consideration this week. He is a former Phoenix winner (spring of 2022) who enters this weekend with three consecutive top-10 finishes at the track. Don't forget that he started 24th this spring but still finished seventh. Alex Bowman (DK $7,100, FD $7,200) is no doubt a risky play. He has been floundering as this season aged, but his support of his two championship contender teammates would be a boost. To best support his teammates, he should be aiming to be at the front to take positions away from other contenders. It is a gamble with Bowman given his current finishing trend, but this is the higher-risk lineup. Lastly, AJ Allmendinger (DK $6,200, FD $4,800) has recently found some traction and could close out the season in nice fashion. Allmendinger has two top-10 finishes at this track and finished 12th in this race last season.
