This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
I thought I had a good read on Gameweek 34 until I didn't. The matches I thought there would be goals in (Leicester-Villa, Brentford-Tottenham), didn't have goals. In hindsight, it probably would've been safer to bet Manchester City -2.5 and call it a day. Then again, that bet didn't work with Liverpool against an Everton side that didn't even want to win. Sometimes the Premier League is really hard to bet and no matter your process, you'll be wrong. I'm still trying to figure out how Tottenham's attack has hit a wall after going full speed the last month. They have zero goals in their last two matches after scoring 21 in their prior six.
Record: 81-83-6. Up $359 on $100 bets.
THE PLAYS
Newcastle have been the most surprising team in the league over the last three months. Instead of battling relegation, they're now battling for a spot in the top 10, which is kind of crazy. They've won their last six matches at home and while none of those came against Liverpool, it's an impressive record no matter the opponent. While Liverpool are still playing for the title, I think they'll rotate a few guys given the Champions League semi-final against Villarreal. That combined with how few solid opportunities Newcastle are allowing to everyone (but Tottenham) and I think the home side is the way to bet. I think this will be a tight match that Newcastle think they can win and I'll go with them at +1 (+130), hoping for a 1-0 or 2-1 loss at worse.
Wolves versus Brighton seems like a match destined for a stoppage-time winner as the only goal in the match. Wolves won 1-0 at Brighton in December via Romain Saiss and I figure it will be a similarly defensive match. While there have been some oddly high-scoring games between these two of late, one team has failed to score in eight of the last 11 matches, including three scoreless draws. Under 2.5 goals is -190, which means -125 for 'No' on both teams to score is a pretty good deal. There isn't much of an edge for either side and both of these teams seem likely to struggle to score in this spot.
Even though the season is almost over, Ralph Hasenhuttl still doesn't know what formation he prefers for this group and that's led to some poor defensive performances. Southampton seem to allow at least one goal every match, while Crystal Palace allow at least one goal every away match. These teams played to a 2-2 draw a few months ago and I think a similar contest is in play. Both teams to score is -140 with over 2.5 goals at a nice +100. The hope is that one of these teams scores early to open play up because Palace haven't scored in their last three and they won't push unless their opponents force them to.
Arsenal matches have been a bit high scoring of late, but I'm not sure that'll continue against a West Ham team focused on Europa League. Injuries on the back line have also forced West Ham into a different strategy because they can't push as much without any available center-backs (Craig Dawson is suspended in addition to the injuries). Because of that, this bet is probably stupid, but I think the Hammers will again go with three center-backs and hope this is a tight, low-scoring match since rotation is possible for them again (see: XI versus Chelsea). So, I'll take the underdog route of under 2.5 goals at +100 and hope the Gunners don't continue their out-of-nowhere scoring form.
I think there's an edge in the odds for Leicester City and Brentford, but nothing stands out to me in terms of straight-up bets for a side, so I'll sit those out. However, I think goals are a good play between Man United and Brentford. There have been at least three goals scored in each of the last five away matches for Brentford, as their defense isn't quite as good away. Combine that with injury questions for Man United and I think both sides will get chances to score. Over 2.5 goals is -130 and both teams to score is -145. Instead of winning this bet, I'll go with the risky route of 'Both teams to score no draw' at +150. Despite being a mid-table side, Brentford don't like drawing matches (seven draws in 34 matches) and that's my idea with this.
