This article is part of our Starting Eleven series.
7:00 a.m: Leicester v. Arsenal
9:05 a.m: Burnley v. Manchester City
11:30 a.m: Manchester United v. Chelsea
There is a wide range of outcomes for Sunday's matches, but it'll be hard not to put Sergio Aguero in the squad. He has the best odds to score on the slate and will be looking to rebound after a recent dud at Man United. He hasn't surpassed 10 fantasy points in his last three starts, but none of those matchups were as easy as this one. Otherwise, the best bet may be to go with Jamie Vardy, who has eight goals in his last eight starts. And while the odds don't show it, this matchup can produce goals for Leicester. Arsenal are in need of three points, but they've lost their last two, including a 3-1 loss at Wolverhampton. Alexandre Lacazette usually has a floor around 10 points, and he'd be my choice if Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang also makes the starting XI. Even then, I may only consider one or two forwards since none of them are easy to trust outside of Aguero. Leicester tend to play more defensively at home, so that could lead to one or two total goals.
The other match is mostly a mystery because you don't know what's going to happen, and that's seen in the odds, with Man United and Chelsea a total pick 'em. That's rarely seen and doesn't give me confidence in any of the forwards. None have floors above 10 points, and while Romelu Lukaku may have the best odds to score, he has a lower floor than Marcus Rashford.
It's a little easier to turn to midfield with numerous Man City options in addition to better Man United and Chelsea choices. Similar to Aguero, Raheem Sterling is the guy to own with a floor above 10 points in addition to good odds to make the scoresheet. He's averaging two shots on goal in his last 10 starts, and that's in addition to averaging 2.15 chances created per 90 minutes. It's unknown who else will start up front, but Bernardo Silva and Leroy Sane will both be popular options. David Silva is also in the conversation, though Ilkay Gundogan may have the best floor of the City midfielders since he's on corners and has at least 15 fantasy points in his last eight starts, completing more passes than the rest.
Granit Xhaka isn't much different than Gundogan with at least 16 fantasy points in five of his last six starts. He's the best option for the Gunners, though it's worth monitoring their lineup since it could look a bit different from their loss at Wolves. James Maddison doesn't have the same floor as some of the defensive midfielders, but he has more upside, especially if you think Arsenal's away struggles continue. He's creating a ton of chances from corners and put eight shots on goal in his last five starts. Youri Tielemans and Wilfred Ndidi don't have the same upside, but the latter has potential to reach 20 points through a variety of defensive stats and if Leicester can keep a decent amount of possession.
It's less certain for the likes of Eden Hazard and N'Golo Kante, but it wouldn't be surprising if they hit their usual numbers given United's struggles. Hazard doesn't have as high of a floor as Kante since he doesn't accumulate defensive points, but he's more likely to make the scoresheet against a side that lost their last three matches in all competitions. I'd still put Paul Pogba in the mix because his floor is usually at least 10 points, though he hasn't surpassed 13.10 points in six of his last seven starts because he isn't making the scoresheet.
DEFENDERS AND GOALKEEPERS
Most will flock to the Man City defenders since they should control possession. Aymeric Laporte is usually good for 15 points no matter the matchup, with his fellow center-back a couple points below that. If Benjamin Mendy starts again, he'll undoubtedly be a popular choice (over Kyle Walker) with a decent floor and assist upside because he could be in the attack the majority of the match.
It's less certain everywhere else since you don't know how the matches will play out. Ben Chilwell and Ricardo Pereira have the safest floors for Leicester, though you'll have to bank on Leicester winning because a lot of that floor is from getting forward on the wings. Sokratis Papastathopoulos and Laurent Koscielny can have solid floors at times, but they are often hard to project. The Man United defenders are rarely good choices, while it'll be hard to trust Chelsea's back line since their floors are often dependent on controlling possession.
It won't be easy to go against Ederson at goalkeeper because he has the best odds for another clean sheet, having hit nine fantasy points in four of the last five. You could test your luck with Kasper Schmeichel, and while the odds don't show it, he's probably a better option than Bernd Leno. It's a guessing game in the final match, with Kepa Arrizabalaga possibly being better than David de Gea, though neither back line is playing well.