This article is part of our College Baseball Picks series.
College Baseball Picks: Golden Spikes Award Best Bets
The Golden Spikes is one of the coolest awards in sports, given to the best amateur baseball player. Like a lot of these new markets, it's in its second year of bet ability, giving a sample size of how to attack them. Last season, we crushed the Charlie Condon 15/1 number for an inaugural cash.
With my trusty formula, I have identified some big-time players for 2025. Before we get there, let's talk about that formula that helped me cash a ticket last year.
Golden Spikes Award Betting System
Like any award, there are certain criteria to consider heavily. Because this isn't a popular award to bet yet, you won't find anybody else giving you this insight, so listen up.
- Target players in a Power 5 (now Power 4) conference.
- Since 2011, only two non-P5's have won - Kris Bryant and Kyle Lewis
- Stay away from pitcher-only players.
- Since 2010, only Trevor Bauer and Kevin Kopps have won. Not even Paul Skenes.
- Target players on teams that will likely make the field of 64.
- Since 2007, there have only been three non-playoff winners and one was Bryce Harper at JUCO
- Target draft-eligible/likely first-rounders.
- Target players who will likely have big statistical profiles (i.e .400+ average/30 HR's).
There are three finalists every year, and usually the top pitcher is one of them to honor the dominant season they had. There's also a good chance #1 hopeful pick CF Jace LaViolette out of Texas A&M will be a finalist because of his talent and pedigree. This likely leaves only one other player being on the ballot, which makes this a tough challenge to navigate.
That said, I would be shocked if one of the three players I list isn't at least a finalist.
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2025 Golden Spikes Odds
- Jace LaViolette, OF, Texas A&M (+400)
- Jamie Arnold, P, Florida State (+600)
- Max Belyeu, OF, Texas (+700)
- Cam Cannarella, OF, Clemson (+1000)
- Ethan Petry, OF, South Carolina (+1300)
- Drew Burress, OF, Georgia Tech (+1500)
- Jared Jones, 1B, LSU (+1500)
- Nolan Schubart, OF, Oklahoma State (+1500)
*odds via BetRivers
2025 Golden Spikes Award Best Bets
1. Nolan Schubart, 1B/OF, Oklahoma State (+1500)
I've been talking about this cat for weeks. Bet Rivers had him at 75/1, and I COULD NOT EFFING BELIEVE IT! I implored my Twitter followers to take a piece of this guy since the middle of January, saying 15/1 was the correct price. Luckily I gave him out since then and maxed out my position on Schubart, so I'm covered. Even last June, I mentioned how he would be a guy I lock into for the 2025 season.
The 6'5" 235 lb lefty ADONIS may have the most power in this coming draft. Playing out of a launching pad in Stillwater, Schubart is poised to have a monster season. Fitting the profile of my formula, he went nuts in 2024 with 23 bops, a .370 average, .513 OBP, and a 1.352 OPS in just 49 games. In a loaded OK State lineup, Nolan Schubart will have every opportunity to be the thundering presence in what's expected to be the class of the Big 12 sans OF Carson Benge and OF Zach Ehrhard.
The important piece is cutting down on the strikeouts to improve efficiency and production. As a freshman in 2023, he punched out 75 times (62 games), so the 62 K's last year were an improvement. If Schu can play 55+ games this season, I would like to see the K's come down even more, ideally less than 40.
Based on the jump from '23 (17 HR's/.338 average) to '24 he has had, we should reasonably see another steady climb in power and average. Realistically, Schubart could flirt with 35 homers and north of a .400 average in 2025.
Schubart checks every single box of my formula, but now that the market has corrected itself, there's no more insane value on this ticket. Nonetheless, I see the preseason Big 12 Player of the Year as a perennial threat to the Golden Spikes award this spring en route to being a high draft pick in July.
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2. Henry Ford 1B/OF, UVA, (+2500)
Ford was amazing as a freshman last season for the Cavaliers, batting .336 with 17 homers for one of the game's top offenses. Even as a younger player, his talent well exceeded expectations. As a draft-eligible sophomore, Ford has to make up for the lost year where most candidates get the opportunity to go after this award as a junior.
What makes this 6'5" 220 lb man-child so appealing is advanced levels of hit and power tools to all fields at 20 years old. Furthermore, he'll be anchoring maybe the country's top offense again with a year of experience under his belt. Provided with tons of protection on both sides of him, opposing pitchers will have no breaks when pitching to UVA.
It's less of a sample size on him, but I have Ford taking a massive leap in 2025 pushing his homer total into the high 20's and his average past .400. For that to happen, the 53 strikeouts will probably have to be cut to the low 30's, but I believe HC Brian O'Connor will continue to help develop Ford in year two.
Additionally, Ford will be transitioning to Right Field full-time in 2025, which should only bolster to his case of adding value.
3. Max Belyeu, OF, Texas (+1200)
Another guy I targeted back in June, Max Belyeu is an extremely dangerous hitter. With Texas a member of the Big 12 last season, he belted 18 homers to go along with a .329 average and 1.090 OPS. What could throw a wrinkle into Belyeu's ascending statistical profile is the move to the SEC with much better pitching.
The reigning Big 12 Player of the Year should hear his name called very early this summer as one of the league's best. Like Ford and Schubart, Belyeu will anchor a very dangerous offense with lots of protection around him, forcing opposing arms to pitch to him more directly rather than operate around him.
The high octane hit and power tools to all fields make Belyeu a candidate prime for a big jump for the Longhorns. The strikeouts are a big high (44), so the priority is to cut down on them a bit to continue the climb of production and efficiency. Cutting that 17.7 K% to about 13% could help those numbers soar into the contention territory for Golden Spikes contender. A thing to watch will be how the adjustment to SEC pitching impacts him earlier in the season. Assuming he adapts without too many hiccups, I'm looking for Max to register a homer total in the high 20's with an average pushing the high .390's.
Based on ability, Belyeu being 12/1 is a good number to bet on, but nothing shorter than that. Starting fast is an important note for candidates. So hopefully he can avoid going 1 for his first 10 again.
Honorable Mention- Devin Taylor, OF, Indiana (+5000)
If you're looking for somebody further down the board, Indiana's Devin Taylor is a great buy. Of all the names I mentioned on this list, Taylor is probably the best all-around player and has the best chance to hear his name called in the top five this summer.
Making a big '23 to '24 jump, Taylor saw a successful freshman campaign with 16 homers and a .315 average balloon to 20 homers and a .357 average (and .449 OBP) last season. Additionally, he cut the strikeouts down from 46 to 38. Taylor is certainly trending in the direction of big time junior year jump in 2025. His .483 WOBA suggest DT has a lot more room to continue his improving efforts for a monster leap.
As the heart and soul of the Hoosiers, Taylor should see a homer output between 25-30 with a big step up in average. After the 42 point boost in average from '23 to '24, it would not be surprising to see that number inflate to the low .400's. Additionally, his stellar defense will add a lot of value to his profile. Facing relatively weaker pitching in the Big 10, Devin Taylor is a player with the potential to skyrocket this season.
