This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Best MLB Bets Today: NL East Rundown
Now that the Super Bowl is behind us, we can focus on the MLB season! Pitchers and Catchers report this week and Opening Day is not too far away. We have plenty of wagering options already. Let's start with a rundown of the NL East, where we have three 2024 playoff teams and an improving Nats squad. Oh, and the Marlins still exist.
NL East Odds
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Projected NL East Standings 2025
*courtesy of Fangraphs
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NL East Odds and Betting Notes
Atlanta Braves
- Wins 93.5 (-120 Over)
- To Make Playoffs -340 Yes, +260 No
- Key Add: Jurickson Profar
- Key Loss: Max Fried
- Betting Notes: Home Unders in 2024 54-25 29.7% Return on Investment (ROI), Home Overs in April since 2021 35-20 (22.24% ROI)
The Braves played virtually the entire season without their best hitter (Ronald Acuna) and their best pitcher (Spencer Strider). Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley and Michael Harris all missed significant time. Matt Olson stayed on the field but had a big decline off his monster 2023 season. Yet the Braves still went 89-73 and made the playoffs, mostly thanks to their pitching.
Chris Sale won the Cy Young, Reynaldo Lopez gave them 135 innings of 1.97 ERA ball (though his estimators pegged him closer to a 4 ERA) and Spencer Schwellenbach looks like their next ace (3.35 ERA, 1.04 WHIP in 123.2 innings). Max Fried is gone but Strider should come back in May, So should Acuna. I will bank on injury luck mean regression and roll with the Over.
Philadelphia Phillies
- Wins 91.5 (-120 Under)
- To Make Playoffs -265 Yes, +210 No
- Key Adds: Jesus Luzardo, Max Kepler, Jordan Romano
- Key Losses: Jeff Hoffman, Carlos Estevez
- Betting Notes: Fade the Phils in Day games (28-27 -14.1% ROI in 2024). Unders >9 since '21, 35-20 20.37% ROI
The Phillies ran away with the NL East in 2024, but then fell in 4 games to the Mets in the Divisional round. I loved their starting pitching already and Luzardo is a great addition if he can come close to his 2023 form. The offense though? Huge names but all of Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Nick Castellanos, J.T. Realmuto and Kyle Schwarber are in their 30's now.
With Harper it's still all about his health and Schwarber has had an "old guy" skill set since he came into the league. But the others really look like they're on the downslope. Fangraphs pegs them at 87 wins and I agree. Give me the Under 91.5 wins
New York Mets
- Wins 90.5
- To Make Playoffs -230 Yes, +185 No
- Key Adds: Juan Soto, Kodai Senga (from injury), Frankie Montas, Clay Holmes
- Key Loss: Luis Severino
- Betting Notes 63-41 15.4% ROI in 2024 night games, Unders in April 31-13 36.93% ROI since 2021
OMG and Grimace, what a fun season for us Mets fans in 2024. A sleepy campaign turned into a magical one as they were the best team in MLB for the last 4 months of the season and made it to Game 6 of the NLCS. Can they do it again?
Well, adding Soto certainly helps a ton and the pitching looks better on paper as Senga returns. And Pete Alonso is back! Fangraphs clearly refuses to quantify "heart" and "chemistry" and pegs them at 87 wins. . I'll take a shot at +200 that they win the Division.
Washington Nationals
- Wins 72.5
- To Make Playoffs +800 Yes, -1400 No
- Key Adds: Nathaniel Lowe, Josh Bell, full seasons on James Wood and Dylan Crews
- Betting Notes: 42-59 -8.4% ROI in First 5's vs Righty Starters in 2024, Unders in Road Interleague 41-21 26.16% ROI since '21
The Nats have an exciting core of future potential superstars on offense. Wood, Crews, CJ Abrams and Luis Garcia Jr. are all under 25. As for pitching, MacKenzie Gore shows signs of reaching his prospect pedigree and DJ Herz flashed upside and a 27.7% K%. But, by and large, it doesn't look close to a playoff rotation or bullpen. This is definitely a team on the rise so I can see putting a little coffee money on the +800 to make the playoffs. Plus give me the over 72.5 wins.
Miami Marlins
- Wins 63.5 (-120 Under)
- To Make Playoffs +2000
- Key Adds: Sandy Alcantara from injury
- Key Losses: Jesus Luzardo
- Betting Notes 30-51 -18.6% ROI Home games in '24, Away Unders 173-135 7.7% ROI since '21
The Marlins snuck into the playoffs in 2023 despite a poor run differential and looked like a clear regression candidate in 2024. That notion was justified, indeed.
Bad injury luck fueled a spiral down the standings resulting in a firesale of big-league talent. They've done virtually nothing to improve for 2025. Unlike the Nats, there's not some young promising core growing here. Plus if anyone somehow pops on this roster they'll get traded. Fangraphs projects 71 wins but I will defy that one and roll with the Under.
NL East Betting Picks
- Mets +200 to win division
- Braves over 93.5 Wins
- Phillies Under 915 Wins (-120)
- Nats over 72.5 Wins
- Nats ¼ unit to make playoffs +800
- Marlins Under 63. Wins (-120)
