Over the last two weeks, I've written about hitters and pitchers I've found myself rostering in multiple early drafts. This week, we're going to dig a little deeper and identify some hitters that have an NFBC ADP of 300 or later who I think could return value.
Joc Pederson, UT, Rangers
NFBC ADP: 389.0 (348.6 since signing with Rangers)
There have been times during Pederson's 11-year career that his teams have tried to make him an everyday player, or at least not viewed the left-handed hitter as an auto-sit against southpaw pitching. That was not the case last year with the Diamondbacks, as the only start Pederson made against a lefty all season came on June 3 versus an opener. On the flip side, the only start Pederson didn't make versus a righty came on Aug. 18, also against an opener. Arizona also didn't bother playing him in the field. Like, he literally didn't wear an outfield glove for a single inning all season.
By letting Pederson focus on what he does well, the Diamondbacks got arguably the best offensive season of his career, with the 32-year-old slashing .275/.393/.515 with 23 home runs across 449 plate appearances. Pederson was rewarded with a two-year, $37 million contract from the Rangers this offseason, and they appear set to use him in virtually the same role. With a move from Chase Field to Globe Life Field, Pederson is going from the No. 30 park for left-handed power to the No. 7 park, per
Over the last two weeks, I've written about hitters and pitchers I've found myself rostering in multiple early drafts. This week, we're going to dig a little deeper and identify some hitters that have an NFBC ADP of 300 or later who I think could return value.
Joc Pederson, UT, Rangers
NFBC ADP: 389.0 (348.6 since signing with Rangers)
There have been times during Pederson's 11-year career that his teams have tried to make him an everyday player, or at least not viewed the left-handed hitter as an auto-sit against southpaw pitching. That was not the case last year with the Diamondbacks, as the only start Pederson made against a lefty all season came on June 3 versus an opener. On the flip side, the only start Pederson didn't make versus a righty came on Aug. 18, also against an opener. Arizona also didn't bother playing him in the field. Like, he literally didn't wear an outfield glove for a single inning all season.
By letting Pederson focus on what he does well, the Diamondbacks got arguably the best offensive season of his career, with the 32-year-old slashing .275/.393/.515 with 23 home runs across 449 plate appearances. Pederson was rewarded with a two-year, $37 million contract from the Rangers this offseason, and they appear set to use him in virtually the same role. With a move from Chase Field to Globe Life Field, Pederson is going from the No. 30 park for left-handed power to the No. 7 park, per Baseball Savant. He also appears pegged for the cleanup spot against righties. It's a limited skill set and he's UT-only, but Pederson's bankable power usually can't be attainable at that point in the draft.
Jonathan Aranda, 1B, Tampa Bay Rays
NFBC ADP: 399.8
I've come to the conclusion that virtually all of the Rays' hitters are being underrated. The move from Tropicana Field to George M. Steinbrenner Field in 2025 cannot be overstated. The Rays' new, temporary home venue has the same dimensions as Yankee Stadium and, unlike Yankee Stadium, it also has the hot, humid Florida weather that's great for offense. And it's not just where Aranda and his teammates are going, it's what they're leaving. Tropicana Field has ranked 29th overall and 24th for home runs for lefties over the last three years, and we've often heard players talk about how difficult it is to pick up the ball there.
Aranda became a regular for Tampa Bay last September and responded with an .836 OPS and five homers over his final 85 plate appearances while spending much of his time in the cleanup spot. He also boasted a 48.5 percent hard-hit rate, 91.9 mph average exit velocity and 16.5 percent barrel rate in 2024. A career .316/.413/.546 hitter at the Triple-A level, Aranda should finally get the regular run versus righties he's been waiting for in 2025, and his offensive upside is ample, particularly in his new confines.
Jonny DeLuca, OF, Tampa Bay Rays
NFBC ADP: 417.6
As I said, I'm looking to roster Rays bats wherever I can, particularly when they're dirt-cheap like DeLuca. It's true that DeLuca's rate stats in his first season with the Rays were pretty awful. Among the 241 players to accrue at least 350 plate appearances last season, DeLuca ranked 220th in average (.217), 225th in on-base percentage (.278) and 231st in slugging percentage (.331). He did, however, keep his head above water with six home runs, and he also added 16 stolen bases.
DeLuca's 28 percent hard-hit rate, 84.6 mph average exit velocity and 3.9 percent barrel rate offered very little promise, but he is a flyball hitter (42.4 percent) and a pull hitter (45.5 percent) who had multiple 20-homer seasons in the minors. It's a swing that should play well at his new home park. Where DeLuca excelled in 2024 was with his sprint speed (98th percentile) and defense (93rd percentile in OAA). The former points to perhaps more in the tank from a stolen base perspective, and the latter should keep him in the lineup even if he has some droughts offensively.
Thairo Estrada, 2B, Colorado Rockies
NFBC ADP: 423.9 (349.9 since signing with Rockies)
Estrada batted .248/.278/.417 with eight home runs in the first two months last season, which wasn't good but wasn't exactly catastrophic, either. Then injuries took hold, as Estrada played through thumb and wrist issues for a bit before finally landing on the injured list in late June with a left wrist sprain. He returned a couple weeks later but then went back on the IL with the same injury in late July. All told, he slashed a sickly .171/.199/.233 from June on before being removed from the Giants' 40-man roster and eventually electing free agency.
The Rockies threw Estrada a life preserver in December, and he's expected to take over as their everyday second baseman. It's difficult to envision a better landing spot for Estrada, who faces little competition for at-bats and whose lackluster batted-ball data but high contact rates should play well at Coors Field. Estrada will turn just 29 later this month and batted .266 with an average of 14 homers and 22 steals from 2022 to 2023 while playing his home games at Oracle Park, which is on the opposite end of the park factor spectrum from Coors.
Kyle Manzardo, UT, Cleveland Guardians
NFBC ADP: 462.3
Manzardo struggled in his first couple stints with the big club last season but looked like he was finally starting to figure things out in September, slashing .270/.333/.540 with five home runs across 69 plate appearances. He also went 6-for-19 with another long ball during the postseason, occupying the second spot in the lineup in each of his five starts. Manzardo's hard-hit rate (40 percent), average exit velocity (89.1 mph) and barrel rate (9.5 percent) were all above average, and he had no trouble lofting the ball, posting a 53.3 percent flyball rate.
Progressive Field has been inconsistent in how it plays for left-handed power, but it was very much on the upswing in 2024 after renovations to the right-field concourse, ranking fifth in baseball per Baseball Savant. That could be good news in 2025 for the flyball-heavy Manzardo. The 24-year-old had a career .932 OPS in the minors, and while his 26.3 percent strikeout rate and 5.8 percent walk rate with the Guards last season wasn't great, his 17.8 percent strikeout rate and 14.6 percent walk rate on the farm suggest he'll get better there as he settles in. Manzardo will head into 2025 as UT-only, but he should have a decent chance of picking up first base eligibility eventually.
