MLB Best Bets Today: MLB Betting Picks for Wednesday, July 23
2025 Betting Record: 20-20-1 (-2.18 units)
2025 Player Props Betting Record: 14-10 (+2.72 units)
On Wednesday's all-day slate, I'm looking at afternoon and evening matchups out west where I have contrasting expectations of the favorites.
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Best MLB Bets Today
MLB Picks for Twins at Dodgers
- Dodgers Over 2.5 runs - F5 (-125 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- SGP: Dodgers moneyline and Mookie Betts 2+ Total Bases (+157 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
This interleague clash features a significant pitching mismatch on paper, as the struggling Chris Paddack faces off with Tyler Glasnow. Paddack enters with a 3-9 record, 5.14 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, .280 xBA and .346 xwOBA. The veteran right-hander is also surrendering a 44.2% hard-hit rate, the second-highest figure of his career.
Paddack has been at his worst on the road, where he sports a 2-5 record, 5.81 ERA and 1.9 HR/9. The Dodgers, with their elite lineup, are about the worst possible matchup for a pitcher who checks in having allowed 11 earned runs over his last two starts. Los Angeles entered Tuesday night's action with an MLB-high .363 wOBA against righties at home this season, and the Dodgers' current hitters have a collective .264 average, seven extra-base hits and a .765 OPS across 55 career encounters with Paddack.
On the other side, Glasnow has looked good over his first seven starts. He's been particularly excellent in the two turns since returning from the IL, posting an 0.82 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. Glasnow has a 28.3% strikeout rate as well, and he's absolutely dominated current Twins hitters over his long career to the tune of a .137/.154/.196 slash line over 52 plate appearances.
Given the factors cited, the case for the Dodgers to get at least three runs on the board over the first five innings in a stadium where they're averaging the second most (3.2) in MLB in that split is certainly there.
Then, for a bonus bet, a same-game parlay that banks on the heavily favored hosts to win outright and for Betts, who has a .667 average with three extra-base hits against Paddack in 10 career encounters, to get to at least two total bases is also in play. That's especially tempting since Paddack is also surrendering a .318 average and .374 wOBA to righty bats on the road.
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MLB Picks for Athletics at Rangers
- Athletics moneyline (+120 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- SGP: Under 6 runs -F5 and JP Sears Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+150 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
This AL West showdown features an intriguing pitching matchup between the talented but inconsistent JP Sears and Patrick Corbin. The Rangers lefty takes the hill while Nathan Eovaldi gets a couple of extra days to rest the tight back that wiped out his scheduled start Sunday.
Sears has slightly better numbers on the road but is coming off a rough start against the Guardians in Cleveland, where he allowed seven runs (six earned) over four innings. Yet, he'd pitched to a 2.49 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 0.4 HR/9 in his four prior trips to the mound, an example of the type of stretches he's capable of going on at any moment.
Sears has had trouble keeping the ball in the park, but he's held current Rangers hitters to a .237/.289/.367 slash line and a modest four homers in 149 career encounters. The Rangers have also scuffled significantly against lefties at home recently, posting a 31.8% strikeout rate, .181 average, .267 OBP and .279 wOBA in that split over the last month.
Meanwhile, Corbin is enjoying a curiously resurgent season at age 35 as both his 3.91 ERA and 1.29 WHIP are his lowest figures in those categories since 2019. He should also come in riding a wave of confidence, considering he's faced some potent hitters in those of the Orioles, Padres, Angels and Tigers in his last four starts and come out of that 22.2-inning sample with a 2.78 ERA and 0.8 HR/9. Corbin also boasts a 3.30 ERA, 8.5 K/9 and 0.8 HR/9 across 43.2 innings at home, and he's limited opponents to sub-.250 averages his first and second time through the order.
The Athletics are slight underdogs on the moneyline but have managed a 3-3 split in Texas thus far this season. Another win here to salvage the series is certainly within the range of outcomes, especially because I have some faith in Sears bouncing back from his last outing and extending the Rangers' recent struggles versus southpaws.
It's also worth noting both the Athletics and Rangers average only 1.96 runs per first five innings in the home/road splits that apply Wednesday. I'm looking toward a same-game parlay that lets us push the first-five-inning total all the way to six runs and combining it with a bet of at least a five-K performance from Sears, who's recorded at least five strikeouts in five of his last seven trips to the mound, including in three straight.
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MLB Picks Recap
- Dodgers Over 2.5 runs - F5 (-125 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- SGP: Dodgers moneyline and Mookie Betts 2+ Total Bases (+157 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Athletics moneyline (+120 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- SGP: Athletics-Rangers Under 6 runs -F5 and JP Sears Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+150 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
