Top MLB Betting Picks: July 23rd Best Bets & Predictions
The MLB approaches 2/3 of the way done soon, how is that possible? We have a full slate of games today to choose from, let's try to find some winners.
Season record 22-27-1, -6.21 units
Cash in on the best sportsbook promos available at the best MLB betting sites this baseball season. The BetMGM bonus code gets new players one of the best welcome bonuses in the industry.
Cincinnati Reds at Washington Nationals
The Nats deserve more ire than they get. They won the World Series in 2019 and then did a pretty nice job dismantling that roster as it aged and got super expensive. Of course, the biggest coup was trading Juan Soto early enough to get an epically monstrous package for him. MacKenzie Gore and James Wood are now All Stars and CJ Abrams is very close.
Yet this team which once invested in their product has done virtually nothing to supplement them and now Gore is already as close to free agency as Soto was when they traded him. The Pirates get rightfully blasted for doing nothing to improve while Paul Skenes is affordable; the Nats have done just as little with even more pieces and a bigger market.
But I completely digress. The Nats are terrible in every which way, but particularly so vs. lefties. They've gone 9-17 vs. lefty starters this season for a -27.5% ROI as per VSiN.com. As a team, they have just a .670 OPS and 88 wRC+ at home vs, southpaws. They face a good one today in Nick Lodolo. The Red near-ace thrives on the road, with a 2.56 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and 20.4% K-BB% in 59.2 innings away from Great America Ballpark (aka "Smallpark").
The Nats start Michael Soroka in perhaps his last outing in DC before the pending free agent inevitably gets traded. His 5.10 ERA looks kind of ugly, but he's actually pitching much better than that with a 1.15 WHIP, 3.57 SIERA and 3.20 xERA. His 18.4% K-BB% is actually better than Lodolo's overall 17.4% mark. He often starts well then craters at about the 80 pitch mark or so if he gets there. His splits when he faces betters a third time are hideous.
I get the non-competitive Nats giving him a shot at going deeper into games, but his next team will almost certainly use him as a bulk reliever or short outing starter. The Nats for their part have only let him face 18 and 19 batters respectively in his last 2 starts, so they may do that again today to avoid danger before he gets dealt.
That all bodes poorly overall for the Nats in this game. They have a 5.79 bullpen ERA at 1.52 WHIP, both are worst in MLB.
MLB Best Bets
- Reds ML (-137 BetRivers)
- Michael Soroka Under 15.5 Outs (-115 DraftKings
Check out Caesars Sportsbook this MLB season and use the Caesars Sportsbook promo code for one of the top MLB betting promos.
Houston Astros at Arizona Diamondbacks
Let's continue with a theme here and target a team that has struggled a bit against lefties. The DBacks are a much better team than the Nats, but have an identically mediocre 88 wRC+ vs. lefties at home. That's despite employing the scorching hot Eugenio Suarez.
They face Brandon Walter from the Astros' endless pitching factory. We looked at him a couple weeks ago, and he continues to shine. Walter has a 3.66 ERA on the season with a 0.96 WHIP. He's faced 186 batters this season and walked just three of them. That's not a misprint. That's a 1.6% BB% vs. a 25.6% K%, really elite ratios there. His statcast page is a veritable sea of red.
Brandon Pfaadt starts for Arizona. He's struggled overall this season amid some major blowups that his Fantasy owners are all too well aware of. But he's somewhat quietly turned his year around lately with a 3.51 ERA and 1.07 WHIP over 41 innings in his last 7 starts. He pitched 7 shutout innings with 6 K's, 4 hits and 0 walks vs. the Cards in his last outing. And he gets to face an absolutely depleted Astros lineup with Yordan Alvarez, Isaac Paredes, Jeremy Pena and Jake Meyers all on the IL.
I don't much scoring in this one, so let's play it accordingly.
MLB Best Bets
- Under 8.5 (-110 FanDuel)
- Brandon Walter Over 4.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+120 DraftKings)
MLB Picks Wednesday Recap
- Reds ML (-137 BetRivers)
- Michael Soroka Under 15.5 Outs (-115 DraftKings
- Under 8.5 (-110 FanDuel)
- Brandon Walter Over 4.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+120 DraftKings)
