This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Top MLB Bets for May 14: Expert Picks and SGPs
2025 Betting Record: 6-12 (-7.21 units)
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With another all-day Wednesday slate on tap, I'm looking to bounce back with a couple of home teams that are in favorable spots to make good on their status as heavy favorites.
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MLB Picks for White Sox at Reds
- SGP: Reds moneyline and Nick Lodolo 5+ Strikeouts (-123 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
One of the weakest road offenses in all of baseball goes up against a talented pitcher whose handedness has given that team plenty of trouble in this interleague matchup of AL and NL Central Division teams. The White Sox will send promising but inconsistent Davis Martin to the hill against Nick Lodolo, a southpaw who looks to have a good chance of forging a career-best season if he keeps up the momentum he's built up over the first month-plus of the campaign.
Lodolo has allowed three earned runs or less in six of his first eight starts, and he's facing a White Sox squad that has a 25.9% strikeout rate, .227 average, .284 OBP, .275 wOBA and -5.3 wRAA against left-handed pitching on the road. Lodolo's track record against the few White Sox hitters he's faced before is also stellar, as they've mustered just a collective .077 average and .327 OPS across 14 career plate appearances against him.
Despite the fact they scored five runs in a win Tuesday night, the White Sox are obviously far from a competitive team, and that victory was just their fourth in 21 road games. Cincinnati is just 9-11 at home in its own right, but the Reds are unsurprisingly -225 favorites at multiple sportsbooks for Wednesday's game anyhow.
Martin's 1-4 record that's somewhat belied by a respectable 4.01 ERA, but he also has an elevated 1.41 WHIP and has allowed at least four earned runs in three of his eight trips to the mound. Martin also has a below-average 5.9 K/9, and a 1.1 HR/9, and his underlying metrics – .326 xBA, .523 xSLG, .390 xwOBA and 6.12 xERA – really tell the tale of a pitcher who's been on the right side of luck more often than not.
The White Sox have yet to win three consecutive games this season, and Cincinnati has the clear starting pitching advantage, so a same-game parlay banking on a Reds victory and strikeout success for Lodolo, who's rung up at least 5 Ks in three of his last five trips to the mound, is a viable way to go.
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MLB Picks for Marlins at Cubs
- Cubs -0.5- F5 (-140 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Cubs -1.5 (+102 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
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The Cubs moved to 25-18 Tuesday night with a one-run win over the Marlins in the second game of the three-game set, pushing their home mark to 12-9. Chicago has a +54 run differential on the season, including a +17 figure at home. The North Siders could be in prime position to expand on those marks Wednesday when they face the debuting Ryan Weathers.
Weathers will be coming off the injured list Wednesday after missing the first several weeks of the season with a forearm injury. He was impressive over his three rehab starts, and the left-hander also experienced a fairly drastic turnaround last season after pitching to a 5-15 record, 5.88 ERA and 1.53 WHIP while giving up 32 homers in 156 innings.
Weathers finished with a 3.63 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and more respectable 1.1 HR/9 a year ago, but he's naturally far from the most trustworthy, especially considering he's making his first start of the season. He also has a very tall order in front of him, as the Cubs are averaging the third-most runs per home game (5.7) and third-most home runs per game (1.44) in all of baseball. Chicago is also boasting a .275 average, .817 OPS and .358 wOBA against lefties at home in the last month of play, a stretch where they've slugged five homers.
Meanwhile, Jameson Taillon, who'd put together an impressive six-start stretch where he'd pitched to a 2-0 record, 2.80 ERA and 0.91 WHIP before running into some trouble last time out against the Mets, will be taking the hill against a Marlins squad that's averaged only 3.95 runs per road game, and that has a 5-14 away mark with a -50 run differential on the road that's only lower than that of the Rockies' -60 figure in that same split.
Considering the Cubs also score an MLB-high 3.58 runs per first five innings per home game, while the Marlins sit second to last in MLB with 1.26 runs per first five per road contest, we have the basis for the two picks for this game.
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MLB Picks Recap
- SGP: Reds moneyline and Nick Lodolo 5+ Strikeouts (-123 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Cubs -0.5- F5 (-140 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Cubs -1.5 (+102 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
