Collette Calls: NL Hitting Bold Predictions Review

Before I dive into reviewing my NL hitter bold prediction reviews, I want to express my gratitude to the commenters who left notes of support in last week's recap which surfaced many more misses than hits. I promise this gets better in the process, but bold predictions are not meant to be safe. They are meant to look at what might be possible while acknowledging that it likely will not materialize. My hope each season as I go through that exercise, and this review exercise, is to get you to think differently about a player or to learn from my mistakes as you work through your own offseason prep for your next draft.

That said, I did not forsee the rapid decelerations of some of those hitters whose fantasy values went from around average to unrosterable in a hurry this season. I will say that despite rostering a few of those hitters at one point or another this season, I was still able to win the AL LABR title this year, albeit barely holding on at the end to fend off Jesse Roche from Baseball Prospectus, who got within half a point of me at one point in the final week. I'll get to that experience in a separate installment of this column. 

all dollar values or rankings are based off 15-team standard 5x5 leagues

Michael Harris is not a top-75 player - 5 Stars

Harris had an ADP at the end of the second round when I made this prediction out of concern that the volatility around his young age was being overlooked. The other factor was Harris had issues with both splits and a sizable gap in his BB-K%. In that comparison, I pointed to the sophomore struggles of Cody Bellinger and that mostly played out for Harris in 2023. Harris missed time with an early injury and got off to a slow start around it, but he was still able to put up a productive season for Atlanta with 18 homers, 20 steals, 57 RBIs and 76 runs scored in 138 games. Despite the production, the missed time and the early struggles led him to finishing 96th on the overall list and 69th on the hitter-only list. Harris could perhaps put up second-round value in his third full season in 2024, but it was not to be in 2023.

Jorge Soler is a top-50 outfielder - 5 Stars

Soler was the 70th outfielder by ADP when this prediction was made yet finished the season 33rd on the outfield rankings despite missing 20+ games with injury. Soler rediscovered that power which evaded him in 2022, hitting 36 homers with 75 RBIs and 77 runs driven in while batting .250, blowing away every projection system's expectations of him. I called him a safer version of Joey Gallo, and those who took the risks with Soler were handsomely rewarded this year with his three-category production, while his batting average even came in slightly above league average. 

Tommy Pham is a top-60 outfielder - 4 Stars

Pham did not finish the season with the Mets, but he was able to parlay his time with the Mets and Diamondbacks into a season which put him 43rd on the overall outfielder rankings by season's end. Pham only played in 129 games, but hit .256 with 16 homers, 68 RBIs, 66 runs, and stole 26 bases. This from an outfielder who was 86th by ADP in February drafts. Hitters hit, and Pham was an excellent late-round bargain in drafts this season, but the 35-year-old will be looking to join his sixth organization since the 2021 season.

Bryson Stott is a top-30 middle infielder - 5 Stars

I recycled Stott for a second consecutive season in my bold prediction, and he handsomely rewarded my faith by finishing eighth overall in the middle-infield rankings with a .280 average, 15 homers, 62 RBIs, 78 runs and 31 steals. Stott was the 41st middle infield-eligible player by ADP at the time of the prediction and my faith in his abilities was well-founded. 

Corey Dickerson is a top-100 outfielder - 1 Star

Well, that was a fun run of success while it lasted. Dickerson was a fantasy non-factor, hitting .250 with little production off the bench for Washington before he was cut loose in early August. The circumstances by which I had hoped Dickerson would be productive never materialized. This is not the only time you will see this lesson learned on this list.

Dansby Swanson finishes outside the top 125 - 3 stars

This one nearly materialized, but Swanson bested me by finishing 115th in the overall final rankings. That final ranking was still 30 picks later than his ADP when I made it, so I am claiming a partial win here. The funny part is the projections were nearly spot on with Swanson this season, as his .244 batting average, 22 homers, 80 RBIs and 81 runs scored were nearly identical to his consensus average rankings, but the steals fell back to single digits this season, as Swanson swiped nine bags at a time when everyone was stealing 10+ bases.

Chad Pinder is a top-100 outfielder - 0 Stars

Remember what I said about Dickerson earlier? Pinder was waived just before the start of the season and cleared outright waivers to report to Triple-A, where he decided to retire from professional baseball a few weeks into the minor-league season. I was wishcasting onto Pinder what many of us were guilty of with Wil Myers, thinking that Great American Smallpark could fix all ills and with some regular playing time for a terrible team, Pinder could find some very late value. The Reds went out and surprised us all by not stinking up the joint and by aggressively calling up their prospects rather than rolling out discards from other organizations. 

Sal Frelick is a top-80 outfielder - 1 Star

Frelick was fun to watch play defense for Milwaukee, but the fantasy production simply was not there in a season where outfield production was widely available. The concerning part for his future is that he hit below league-average in both Triple-A and the big leagues and was 15-for-19 in stealing bases despite a healthy dose of chances thanks to his OBP skills. He is a ninth-place hitter moving forward, even if he shakes the platoon splits, unless he grows into more power.

Endy Rodriguez is a top-15 catcher - 0 Stars

Rodriguez saw the most playing time of any catcher in Pittsburgh this past season, as the four catchers on the roster combined for 5 homers, 60 runs scored and 35 RBIs with a .216 batting average. That line is not acceptable for a single player let alone a quartet of players manning a surprisingly deep catching position for fantasy this season. 

Lars Nootbaar is not a top-60 outfielder - 4 Stars

Nootbaar, who was the 41st outfielder by ADP when this prediction was made, finished the season 71st on the final outfield rankings. My prediction was based on my concerns with his batting-average risks due to struggles against the breaking ball and how a lot of the hope for him was built around the league not shifting him as aggressively. All that said, the projections were actually conservative on Nootbaar compared to his final numbers, but the unforeseen depth of the outfield fantasy pool in-season made the numbers rather pedestrian:

Jake McCarthy is not a top-40 outfielder - 5 Stars

This may have been one of my most aggressive hitting predictions of the season considering McCarthy was the 27th outfielder by ADP when this prediction was made and had already gone as high as 77th overall in a draft. My concern for McCarthy's draft stock was that his entire game was built around speed:

McCarthy can fly, and as is the case with pitching, speed can help cover up some other flaws. He does not have any other particularly solid tool yet but his willingness to use all fields. Simply put, his best skill requires him getting on base to use it, so a full season of that profile above could present issues as it did as the season wore down last year

The graph below shows his rolling expected on base average from that point in 2022 where things began their decline. You'll notice McCarthy was decidedly below average this season, reducing his ability to use that blazing speed:

McCarthy did finish the season with 26 steals, but hurt fantasy managers in every other category and only Joey Gallo, Jace Peterson, Kyle Isbel and Jake Meyers were less productive than McCarthy for overall fantasy value for 2023 outfielders (min 275 PA.)

Nolan Jones is a top-80 outfielder - 5 Stars

Cleveland Guardians, just what in the heck were you all thinking trading this guy away? Jones had an ADP just inside the top 500 and finished the season as the 36th-best fantasy outfielder with his 20-20 season along with 62 RBIs, 60 runs and a .297 average for an otherwise unwatchable Colorado ballclub. Mind you, he did this in just 367 at-bats, because Jones spent nearly 200 plate appearances in Triple-A before the Rockies gave him his chance. Jones only had to hit .356/.481/.711 in Triple A with 12 homers in 187 plate appearances to finally get an opportunity with the Rockies. The good news is that he should get all the playing time he can handle now, but the swing and miss that turned the Guardians off him is still ever-present.

Gavin Lux is a top-10 second baseman - 0 Stars

This prediction never had a chance of getting off the ground once Lux crumbled to the infield in Arizona in late February after tearing his ACL while running the bases in an early Spring Training game. The Dodger still won 100 games.

Ha-Seong Kim is a top-15 shortstop - 5 Stars

Kim's ADP was 251 when this prediction was made and I stated that I felt like, "the consensus is missing the boat on the opportunity in front of Kim for this season." I admittedly bemoaned basing predictions off circumstances earlier in this piece with Pinder and Dickerson, but Kim actually had demonstrable upside, and that materialized as he finished the season as the eighth-overall middle infielder with a .260 average, 17 homers, 60 RBIs, 84 runs and the most surprising 38-steal season in 2023. Kim finished 2023 ranked nearly 200 spots higher than his ADP and was likely a kingmaker for many fantasy managers, especially the NL-Only managers who took him as a fallback option once other plans failed to materialize. 

David Villar is a top-30 third baseman - 0 Stars

Nothing spent is nothing lost? Villar's ADP was at 493 during draft season, but that Quad-A warning label on his bat continues to grow as he owns a .193/.290/.393 triple-slash line in 321 major league plate appearances while putting up two consecutive impressive lines in Triple-A each of the past two seasons. He ended 2023 with 140 plate appearance of futility before being permanently optioned down at the end of July.

After that beating I took in the AL hitting predictions, this was a refreshing look back. My one regret is not finding an NL-Only league before the season to take a stab at these in that format. I did have Jones and Soler in multiple mixed leagues, though, which was definitely fun. Perhaps I was just too close to the AL picks as I had to prep for both AL LABR and Tout over the winter, whereas I was more open-minded with the NL picks? I hope many of you profited from some of these, as I feel much better this week after looking back at these 15 predictions than I did this time last week.