Farm Futures: Prospect Mailbag

This is the final mailbag article of the regular season, corresponding with the final Prospect Podcast of the regular season (I'll be doing weekly offseason episodes starting in a few weeks). I've been working on the final 2023 update to the top 400 prospect rankings and I'm really excited to share that with everyone early next week. Thanks to all your great questions, I think I was able to give a nice preview of some of the most meaningful changes you'll see on that update.

Todd Whitestone: For 2024 only - What are your expectations for the young hitters in the Baltimore organization in terms of level (obviously Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman are major leaguers) and production?

Gunnar Henderson: He should be even better next year. He's been a .280 hitter for most of the season, he just hit .170 with 25 walks in his first 100 at-bats.

Adley Rutschman: Expectations should be that he repeats with a chance for more power, but the big selling point is 600-plus plate appearances from a catcher who hits high in the lineup and will hit above .265 (help your batting average).

Jackson Holliday: He'll come to camp with a chance to win the starting shortstop job. Holliday is a bit of a wild card for playing time, but could be third among these players in PAs. He's still going through legitimate physical maturation, so who knows how much stronger he'll be in six months. His upside is basically what Wander Franco did this year, but I wouldn't be stunned if he doesn't make the Opening Day roster, just given Baltimore's ridiculous depth and the fact we haven't seen him this year.

Jordan Westburg: Maybe 18-HR/10-SB with a .260-.280 AVG and 500-plus PAs. He's a lock to be on the Opening Day roster, it's just a question of whether he's playing almost every day or more like four days a week.

Are Anthony Santander, Ryan Mountcastle and Ryan O'Hearn still on the roster? If so, Heston Kjerstad and Coby Mayo should open the year at Triple-A. Are Cedric Mullins and Austin Hays still on the roster? If so, Colton Cowser and Connor Norby should open the year at Triple-A. I don't mind grabbing those four prospects in draft-and-hold leagues, but Baltimore would need to trade or non-tender some of the veterans in order for Kjerstad/Mayo/Cowser/Norby to project for the Opening Day roster.

Will Bell: Not enough Jackson Holliday talk on the pod recently: what are your thoughts on his performance at AAA? Not fantasy related but do you play any baseball sims like Out Of The Park?

Holliday is walking almost as much as he's striking out. His OBP is almost .400. He's putting the finishing touches on an A+ minor-league season. The Wander Franco fantasy comp, which I think I initially heard from Geoff Pontes, is apt, both for the good and the bad – Holliday's not ready to hit 25 homers next year as a rookie, for instance. He could steal 30-plus bases and hit 15-20 homers if he is basically an everyday player all year, but I think you'll see Holliday make big year-over-year gains from 2024 to 2025 and 2025 to 2026, which is when his prime will begin.

After all the time I spend working and managing my fantasy baseball teams, I'm not really left with a baseball itch that needs scratching, so I haven't played any sims.

JLD: Where does Jackson Holliday go next year in NFBC!?

I'd expect he'll be going around 200 or so in early Online Championships (12-team, 7-man bench, FAAB) and in the 120-180 range in early Draft Champions (50-round draft-and-hold). 

I will say this, Wyatt Langford (TEX) will be the new No. 1 overall prospect on next week's update and I prefer Langford to Holliday in 2024 NFBC leagues. Langford and Holliday are both lacking in flaws for fantasy, but Langford is a grown man whose prime could begin next year. We don't need to wait for Langford to grow into all his power, it's already there.

M_Festtt: The Jackson Holliday owner is asking for 3 FYPD picks (projected lotto odds of #4, #9, and #12) in a 10 team, H2H, OBP league. What do you do? What is the highest pick you would consider dealing if you happened to luck into #1-#3?

You've got Wyatt Langford at No. 1 overall, then Walker Jenkins (MIN), Paul Skenes (PIT), Dylan Crews (WAS) in the 7-11 range of the top 400 and Matt Shaw (CHC) borderline top-25. So definitely don't do it for the first pick. Would I do Jenkins plus two back-half of the first round FYPD picks? Yes. If you're giving up Jenkins + Skenes/Crews + one more, then that's probably too much. And I'm leaning towards having Jenkins and maybe Skenes ahead of Crews. It's a small sample to be sure, but there's also no real reason Crews shouldn't have mashed at Double-A. Jenkins basically looks to me like Crews' pre-draft scouting report but three years younger. 

David Scott: Will Warren, Clayton Beeter, Drew Thorpe, Chase Hampton: As a Yankee fan, should I be excited? Or is this crop just restocking our bullpen? Have a couple mentioned in my minors. Also, Yoendrys Gomez had his highest IP total this year. Finally healthy? Possible deep sleeper?

I generally really like all the guys you mentioned relative to what I perceive the consensus to be. Warren will be a big riser on next week's update. I really like how he finished the year. He's probably first up among those guys for a rotation spot. Thorpe and Hampton have No.2 or No.3 SP upside and should be ready in the summer. 

Beeter and Gomez (and Luis Gil, Randy Vasquez) come with the most bullpen risk, but they also have very legit stuff. Beeter finished strong, Gomez stayed pretty healthy and Gil's velo is back. Richard Fitts also looks like he could be a No. 4 starter in late 2024 or 2025, so the Yankees are pretty loaded with close-to-the-majors pitching. If Warren, Thorpe and Hampton end up as mid-rotation starters and Beeter, Gomez, Gil, Vasquez end up in the bullpen, that'd be pretty impressive, but I wouldn't rule out the rotation for any of these guys just yet.

Ross Redcay: Will Warren (NYY) had a really nice finish to the season at AAA after struggling post-promotion. Think he has the skills and opportunity to be an early season contributor next year?

I'm glad I got multiple Warren questions as he'll be one of the bigger risers from outside the top 200 on next week's update. I want to reiterate that there will be some false positives in strong Triple-A finishes over the final 6-8 weeks, given the talent drain at that level. But if you look at starting pitchers who haven't reached the majors yet, Warren is arguably a top-five target for draft-and-hold leagues. He looks big-league ready and there will be a rotation spot open at some point early next season.

Artur Domingues: With rumors that the Padres will cut some payroll next season; does that give you optimism that their top prospects with a 2024 ETA (Jackson Merrill, Ethan Salas, Robby Snelling) will get a chance to make the opening day roster next season? Are the Padres generally aggressive with prospects?

The Padres under A.J. Preller are generally very aggressive, even when they're contending. I expect Merrill to get a shot at some point, and I wouldn't rule out Opening Day. Salas seems more on a up next August type of trajectory if all goes well — this year teams targeted Aug. 18 for a promotion date since there were fewer than 45 days left in the season so players wouldn't lose prospect eligibility due to days on the active roster, and therefore could net teams a draft pick if they win awards after starting next year on the Opening Day roster. Bringing up Salas anytime next year would qualify as extremely aggressive in my book. Similarly with Snelling, I don't think he'll be up on Opening Day, but just the idea of him being up sometime next summer is realistic and aggressive.

Doug Dennis: Who gets the biggest leap in value with a decent showing in the Arizona Fall League?

Here are some candidates I came up with:
Abimelec Ortiz (TEX) - monster season but hasn't faced advanced pitching yet
Cooper Hjerpe (STL) - made four really good starts before getting injured, could be league's best pitcher
Tekoah Roby (STL) - oft-injured, could make similar waves to Mason Miller last year
Wilmer Flores (DET) - could look big-league ready
Jake Eder (CHW) - in danger of falling off the top 400 altogether, but if he looks great in the AFL, the narrative would flip
Jack Brannigan (PIT) - pop-up prospect who could become a more mainstream name
Damiano Palmegiani (TOR) - nearing the majors, should put up big AFL numbers
Cameron Cauley (TEX) - one of the fastest players and best defenders in the AFL, could lead league in steals while making highlight plays
Nathan Martorella (SD) - struggled at AA, so needs a good showing in the AFL
Robert Hassell (SD) - hasn't been good since he was at High-A with the Padres
Bryan Ramos (CHW) - seemingly always overlooked, this could be his coming out party
Victor Scott (STL) - could lead league in steals
Brainer Bonaci (BOS) - coming off very productive season but still under the radar
Justice Bigbie (DET) - monster pop-up season, could look big-league ready
Kenedy Corona (HOU) - big-time defensive CF, if he hits well, he could look like 2024 option
Jakob Marsee (SD) - very impressive stats, analytically inclined people will want to buy in if he looks the part
David McCabe (ATL) - super under-the-radar in a bad system, but he's mashed all year

But my final answer is Chase DeLauter (CLE). I think he's closer to being a top-15 prospect than people realize, and he could be the AFL MVP.

Eric Samulski: I'm curious if these recent call-ups have meaningfully changed how you view them for 2024: Evan Carter, Curtis Mead, Masyn Winn, Joe Boyle, and Ceddanne Rafaela

Long-term expectations for Mead and Winn have changed the least. I had zero expectations for Winn after he got the call. He was the youngest qualified hitter at Triple-A this year and got off to a slow start at that level, so it would have been a pleasant surprise for him to hit the ground running against big leaguers. He should be an everyday player next year. Mead's met expectations as a hitter, although I don't think he's ready to hit 25 homers next year. Both guys will be usable in fantasy in 2024, but I'd expect them to be prime post-hype sleepers in 2025.

I've been getting a lot higher on Rafaela in recent weeks, even before he got the call. I think I was too focused on his over-aggressive approach. He reminds me in many ways of Michael Harris (just not as much impact potential offensively). Rafaela's swing decisions will be bad more often than most nerds would like, but he's such an athletic freak that his bat speed covers up for many of his shortcomings, and his defense should buy him playing time. There's a chance he hits .200 and gets sent to Triple-A for a couple more months next season, but there's also a chance he hits 20 homers with 30 steals.

Carter is kind of the opposite of Rafaela, where I was too focused on his lack of impact (EVs) and not focused enough on his ability to just put barrel to ball and pull it out to right field. Carter will move up 10-12 spots (currently 21) on next week's update, but I still prefer guys like Jasson Dominguez and Jordan Lawlar long term. Carter will go weeks at a time next year without hitting a HR, and I think the book (power inside) will get out to some extent. He's obviously an appealing option for 2024, but given his MLB numbers I can't imagine I'll be buying at the price.

We've always known Boyle had loud stuff, but as Eno Sarris said on last week's Prospect Podcast, it's 70 stuff and 20 command. I don't think we've seen enough in nine MLB innings to come off that -- he walked 18 in his final 33.1 minor-league innings. At best, he'll be a home streamer, but he could be wild enough in spring training that he opens at Triple-A.

St. Louis Perfectos: I've kind of checked out over the past month-plus. Anybody really turning it on late this season and catching your eye that would be worth adding in ~200+ prospect leagues that haven't closed waivers yet?

Lonnie White (PIT), Rece Hinds (CIN) and Jhancarlos Lara (ATL) are a few who have really caught my eye over the past six weeks or so. White has been injured a lot since getting drafted out of high school in 2021, but he showed at least plus power at Single-A. Strikeouts were an issue, but he could be a power/speed, high-OBP OF. 

Since they removed the pre-tacked ball from the Southern League, Hinds has been striking out at a 26.2% clip (good by his standards) while getting to all his power, so he's essentially a discount version of Owen Caissie (CHC). 

Lara has been a strikeout machine, has good stuff and size and is in a great org. 

Chase Petty (CIN), Kristian Robinson (ARI), Austin Shenton (TB) and Alan Roden (TOR) are some others who finished strong.

Tom Braun: As a Red Sox fan, I want to believe in Roman Anthony. However some of their top prospects (Marcelo Mayer, Nick Yorke) don't seem to progress in their system. Tell me why Anthony will be different.

Well, Triston Casas, Ceddanne Rafaela and Jarren Duran seem to have progressed as well as could be expected, so I guess it depends which prospects you want to cite. There's certainly no denying Anthony is a better prospect at this stage than Mayer or Yorke ever were, just based off minor-league production and age/level. If Mayer put up identical stats in his career to Anthony, I think people would view Mayer as an undisputed top-10 prospect.

Yorke has had a pretty solid year at Double-A -- his biggest issue is that he needs to be putting up 135 wRC+'s instead of 115's, given how bad his defense is. Taking Mayer over Jordan Lawlar was a pretty big mistake in hindsight, but nobody was saying that with confidence at the time.

Rico S.: What do you see as the fully formed versions of Roman Anthony (BOS) and Jett Williams (NYM)? Fantasy round and total upside?

If they each reached their 95th percentile outcome or something like that, I'd say they would both be late-first/early-second rounders. Williams' realistic ceiling is in the 25-HR, 40-SB range, while Anthony's is more like 35-HR, 20-SB. They'll both be slightly better in OBP leagues than AVG leagues and should both hit first or second in the lineup.

CH4RLEYS: How much have Jett Williams (NYM), Joey Loperfido (HOU), Carson Williams (TB) raised their value? Or is it the same as before?

Williams will be a tad higher than he was – mid-teens instead of early-20s.

Loperfido struggled more than anticipated against AAA pitching, so he'll be lower than he was on the last update (95).

I had Williams at 50, and that seems about right. His median outcome to me is Willy Adames. He's a better athlete than Adames was/is, but 25-30 HR pop, maybe 10-15 steals, but similar AVG and OBP swings to Adames is what I'm expecting.

Ross Redcay: Does Orion Kerkering have the goods to work his way into the closer role in Philly? Where do you think he ends up in the pecking order going into 2024?

Yup. It's always annoying when a reliever you've been following closely suddenly starts showcasing the goods in the majors before the offseason gets here, and I have a feeling that's happening with Kerkering and Daniel Palencia with the Cubs. I would take Jose Alvarado over any other Phillies reliever for 2024, but I'd take Kerkering second and he pretty solidly projects as their closer of the future. Griff McGarry could eventually figure into that, but he might not have good enough command for the ninth inning.

Alex Washburn: What's Wikelman Gonzalez's (BOS) ceiling prospect rank wise? I assume Connor Norby (BAL) won't be back in the top 100 unless traded?

Gonzalez could be a top-three pitching prospect in the game. I'm not projecting that, especially given his home park, but he's got that type of ceiling if he shows up next year with significantly improved control.

Norby is dominating in September, which he should be doing against the pitching that's left at AAA. He should be closer to Colton Cowser than he was last update, so Cowser will go down a bit and Norby will go up, probably around the top 100. I do like that they've been playing Norby in the OF, but it's sooo crowded. No matter which non-Holliday O's prospect you like most, it's hard to make a compelling case that they will definitely be treated like an everyday player within the next couple years.

Tom Braun: In my dynasty league we do a rookie draft. Who does more to help you win next year and who is a better long term pitcher between Max Meyer (MIA) and Paul Skenes (PIT)?

Skenes for both. I think he'll throw more MLB innings next year (if healthy) than Meyer and he's the better long-term pitcher. It makes too much sense for Skenes to open in the Pirates' rotation if he has a strong spring, whereas the Marlins will be careful with Meyer in his first year back from Tommy John surgery.

Danny J: Is Victor Scott (STL) essentially Esteury Ruiz with a hit tool?

The hope with Scott is that he's Ruiz with a slightly better hit tool, but more importantly, significantly better defense. If Scott gets as much playing time as Ruiz, they could end up being pretty similar for fantasy. I like that Scott pulls the ball in the air enough to project for eight or 10 homers at peak in the majors, but he needs to avoid being a fourth outfielder, and to do that with the Cardinals, he'll need to be a better real-life player than Ruiz, who only got to play this much because he's on the A's. It's hard to find accurate and up-to-date defensive scouting reports for prospects like Scott who were under the radar coming into the year, but for what it's worth, MLB Pipeline has a 70 on Scott's defense, which is encouraging. If he's a 70-grade defensive center fielder, I think we'll be in business.

Paul: Thoughts on these pitchers for next season: Noah Schultz (CHW), Jacob Misiorowski (MIL), Kyle Hurt (LAD), Mason Miller (OAK). Which ones do you think end up as SPs and which are RPs?

With Schultz, we just want him to have a fully healthy season next year at High-A and maybe Double-A. He'll be a starter if he develops the way everyone hopes, but injuries and command issues can still derail that type of projection, especially for 6-foot-9 20-year-olds with no experience in the upper levels.

Misiorowski's going to be developed as a SP until it's clear it won't work, although part of the Brewers' developmental approach with guys like this is to break them in out of the big-league bullpen. I'd expect that to happen with Misiorowski next summer before he competes for a rotation spot in 2025.

I think Hurt can start. The Dodgers will have a lot of options again in the rotation, but long term I think it's 60/40 he starts, and I'd love to roster him in draft-and-holds, as I think he'll be playable there even if he's not starting.

Miller will probably be managed very carefully in the coming years. All the evidence is telling us he can't handle a starter's workload, but if they can use him in a 100-inning role, they will.

Jason E: 16 team dynasty. H2H category league. Of these 5 SPs, anyone you are excited and or willing to roster next year: Nick Pivetta, Reese Olson, Cristopher Sanchez, Zack Littell, Kenta Maeda

I've used all of them in 15-team leagues this year, so I'm willing to roster all of them in a 16-teamer, but I wouldn't say any of them truly excite me. 

Pivetta would probably be my favorite if he had a better home park. 

Olson is probably my favorite, especially relative to expected ADP.

Sanchez finished really strong and has a pretty nasty changeup. Todd Whitestone thankfully added him to one of our NFBC Main Event teams and he's been excellent over the past six weeks. If a pitcher can miss bats like Sanchez and is likely in a big-league rotation, then he should be rostered in a 16-teamer.

If you liked having Littell over the past two months, you'll like him next year. He benefits from his team context but isn't a big strikeout guy.

With Maeda, it just depends on his landing spot in free agency, but I'd expect he'll provide a solid 120 innings, like he always does.

Joe McHugh: Your take on Oneil Cruz, Jazz Chisholm, CJ Abrams, and Elly De La Cruz for redraft in 2024?

Unfortunately, I think Jazz is Byron Buxton 2.0. I was once obsessed with both guys' skills, but I don't think Jazz's body can handle 135+ games, especially in the outfield.

Cruz will probably get drafted higher than I'm comfortable with. There's batting average, durability and makeup risk with him, and his stolen bases aren't as rare as they were when he first came up.

I think what we're seeing from Abrams is legit, so it will depend where his ADP settles. The playing time is extremely secure, in which case 35+ steals seems pretty bankable and it's even possible he takes another leap as a hitter.

I like Elly the most both for next year and long term. This was his adjustment year against big-league pitching and he's flirting with 15/35 in less than 100 games. Elly is a hard worker who has steadily improved as a hitter every year, so I'm willing to bet he continues that trend.

Mark Johnson: Where would Emmet Sheehan and Bryan Woo slot on the list if still eligible?

Sheehan would be around No. 30 overall and is a great buy-low in dynasty and I think the price will be fantastic in redraft.

Woo would probably be top-50 too, but behind Sheehan. I've got more concerns about Woo's ability to handle a starter's workload and his secondaries, but I like him and his team context is great.

Travis Magnuson: Where would Vaughn Grissom and Luis Matos fall on the updated list if they were still eligible?

Matos would be around No. 25 overall and Grissom would be around No. 75. I love Grissom's bat, but it certainly seems like he needs a trade. Matos would be a bit higher than 25 if not for his home park and the Giants' obsession with subbing guys in and out.

JaamsIMO: What is your top 3 album run in hip-hop history?

Honroable mention:
First 3 Ghostface 
First 3 Tribe Called Quest
First 3 Outkast 
First 3 Kanye West
Tha Carter I, II, III

If we counted All Eyez On Me or Life After Death as two albums (double discs), then Biggie or 2Pac could maybe get involved

I Am kind of knocks Nas out of consideration, as does In My Liftetime for Jay-Z.

DMX deserves at least a mention, since his first three albums were his best three and he put them out within the span of 18 months.

My top two choices are one that's super chalky and one that's a deeper pull:
First 3 Wu-Tang Clan
Middle 3 De La Soul (Buhloone Mindstate, Stakes is High, Art Official Intelligence: Mosaic Thump) 

The MadBritt: Will Chase Hampton (NYY), Drew Thorpe (NYY), Cristian Mena (CHW) or Nick Nastrini (CHW) have any impact next year?

Thorpe and Hampton are clearly the best long-term options, but I wouldn't expect them to join the big-league rotation until June or July, even if all goes well.

Nastrini is a draft-and-hold target as things stand, as he has the most strikeout upside of any White Sox pitching prospect who projects to pitch for the big club next year and probably only needs another handful of Triple-A starts -- he may even compete for a spot in spring training.

Mena isn't really in the class of these others. He could get big-league starts, but I have no interest in him in draft and holds.

Bennett Karoll: Is there any concern that the White Sox will "White Sox" Colson Montgomery?

I guess that depends on how bad his SS defense is. My definition of White Soxing is continuing to invest heavy resources in 3B/1B/DH prospects, so Montgomery's ability to provide defensive value in the middle infield should spare him from a similar logjam. Ideally Bryan Ramos can just take over at 3B in 2025 when Yoan Moncada can be a free agent, and Ramos and Montgomery can just play every day on the left side of the infield. If Montgomery needs to move to third base, then they could "White Sox" Ramos

ChzBeef: What are your thoughts on some forgotten Dodgers such as Gavin Lux, Jonny DeLuca, and Miguel Vargas?

I'm not really in on Lux. I just don't see enough power or speed to gamble on everyday playing time being there. I love Vargas as a dynasty buy-low, but curious what his draft-and-hold ADP will be. DeLuca is great, but we can't assume he'll get everyday at-bats at the start of next year, and he may not even make the Opening Day roster. I'd rank them Vargas, DeLuca, Lux long term, with Vargas and DeLuca's redraft appeal hinging on cost.

Scott Saracen: I feel like Ronny Mauricio was generally ranked lower than similar prospects. How do you feel about his small sample size and how do you view his long term outlook?

His 45% chase rate is a red flag and part of the reason he wasn't ranked higher. He's one of the hardest prospects to rank, because there are obvious strengths (raw power + decent Contact% and a willingness to run), but the hit tool gives me pause. Now that David Stearns is in charge, you can bet they'll be going young and cheap where possible, so that's good for Mauricio's playing time outlook. If Mauricio can hit around .250, he'll produce enough power/speed to make my ranking look bad. I'm betting he's more of a .230 hitter.

Chris Stephens: Orelvis Martinez (TOR) has shown some improvement in the second half of this season. But he has had massive platoon splits two years in a row and massive contact/K issues in the past. Am I crazy for essentially writing him off before he has had a single AB in the majors?

He's got a .919 OPS and 23.6 K% since May 10, so it's been more than a half season of improvement. I'm not as worried about the splits as you are, since he only struck out at a 23 percent clip against righties while walking 13.5 percent of the time. He obviously murders lefties, but he may have been pretty unlucky against righties (.223 BABIP overall at AA). All that said, I don't think there's anything wrong with taking a wait-and-see approach on him in redraft due to his prior hit tool issues. Unrelated to Martinez specifically, but you should never take a player you're this concerned about, even if others don't share your level of concern, so I don't think it's crazy to not have him on your draft board.

Ross Redcay: I'm usually leery of older hitters, but Ben Rice (NYY) seems to have all of the statistical markers of a legit breakout. Comps are dangerous, but heard some smart folks throwing out Vinny Pasquantino as a possible upside outcome. Does Rice have the skills to be a legit four-category contributor in OBP leagues?

That's kind of an outside-the-box comp. I just can't get that confident in a guy who turns 25 this offseason and never played above AA. He's only 16 months younger than Pasquantino, and Pasquantino made his MLB debut at the same age Rice is now. I'll have him top 150, just out of respect for his High-A and Double-A work, and I don't need Statcast data to know he hits the ball really hard. I also like how his lefty power would fit in Yankee Stadium.

K Freeman: Who are some post-hype players we should be looking at for 2024? Graduated prospects who haven't hit dynasty top 400s…

I try to always throw those guys on the back of my dynasty top 400, so if they aren't on there, then I don't really believe in them. The players I highlighted on the pod with Derek VanRiper are the ones I'd highlight here: Bo Naylor, Ryan Noda, Liover Peguero, Zach Neto, Jordan Westburg, Drew Waters, Matt Wallner -- and I'll also throw out Jesus Sanchez, Matt Vierling, Oswald Peraza, Lawrence Butler, Will Benson, Jonny DeLuca, Joey Wiemer, Garrett Mitchell, Mark Vientos, Richie Palacios, Luis Garcia.

Tom Braun: Since I began following you I have dominated my home dynasty league so I thank you! With my last pick in our rookie draft I like to swing for the fences. (This year was Zack Gelof). Can you make a deep dive suggestion for 2024?

Just looking at the same range Gelof was in, how about Juan Brito -- more offensive-minded than the typical Guardians middle infielder, and very close to big-league ready.