MLB Barometer: Disconnect to Reconnect

It hit me on my way back to the parking lot at work the other day. Smartphones have turned us into robots. I see it all the time. In fact, I'm guilty of it too, even though I'm conscious of it.

I watched as a "connected" guy stepped out of the elevator, walked outside of our work building and down the long pathway to the parking lot without as much as looking up from what he was reading on his phone. He missed the staircase altogether and made an eerily robotic about-face, looking up for only a split second before walking up the stairs, entranced by his smartphone.

I see people cross the street without barely looking up at traffic. Completely unaware of their surroundings. Sure, these are extreme cases, but it underscores the world we live in today. Emails, Twitter, box scores, live standings. We're staying updated nonstop and on-the-go. Personally, it takes a vacation on the beach or to a part of the world with bad cell service, to remind me of a time when I actually felt more connected with myself and the world around me. Those times include being on the ice for a hockey game in high school. Snowboarding down a hill, at peace, without a thought in the world. Or in 1999, trying to find college friends we were supposed to meet up with in the dorms ironically without the ability to call each other. We'd all just eventually find each other and continue the party.

We all try to set boundaries for which we can unwind from it all. Dinner time, after 10
p.m., family time, when we're driving. Every person or family rightfully sets their own rules. Taking a break from the constant stream of information, opinions and data that surrounds us is imperative to our health, well-being and sanity.

Oh, and it also helps in roto.

Disconnecting from the stats, splits, constant box score updates and overload of data helps us make clear-minded decisions in fantasy baseball. We're all guilty of being roto-bots. Perhaps for you, it's late June and you've been grinding on lineups and FAAB bids for 11 straight weeks. Almost automatically. You're tired, but competing and you could really use the upcoming All Star break like your Giancarlo Stanton himself (okay, maybe a bad example based on his last two weeks). Oh, a two-step pitcher? Tough matchups on paper, but hell, I need Ks and Ws. Adding him. Read four articles talking about Trayce Thompson as the free agent pickup of the week? Gonna bid high. There may not be anyone like him in FAAB for the rest of the season. Oh, Papi is 12 for 35 lifetime against Phil Hughes with three homers? Locking the chalk in on my DFS lineup today.

It may not resonate with each of you, but I'm sure it does to a degree, and it certainly does with me. I'm conscious of this robotic approach, yet I still catch myself feeding into the frenzy constantly. I keep going back to intuition, because in the end, it is unique to us and us alone. Even if it pops up for only a split second – and oftentimes, it's just a fraction of that. Before you've read anything, or have had a chance to make an "informed" decision, our gut jumps in to state your case before anything else has had a say.

This past weekend, I saw that Nick Tropeano lined up against the Rangers and Astros this week, and I wanted him on my team. Almost instantaneously after that split second of intuition, I started thinking a slew of things: The Rangers are at home and are mostly lefty bats, Tropeano has been getting whipped all year, and then he has to face a dangerous Astros' squad? Tropeano was my top FAAB pitching option when I threw some placeholder bids in the middle of last week. But by the time I finished tweaking, he was my sixth conditional. I went against that split-second gut instinct and convinced myself with all of the data and reasoning as to why Tropeano shouldn't have been my main target. He threw a shutout on Monday and who knows how he'll pitch this weekend. Either way, I didn't get him. The point is that I'd feel better about making a decision based on instinct that's supported by data that ended up being wrong, than to go against my instinct and end up being wrong.

It's much too lazy of us to read five different websites' opinions united behind a specific play and just go with that play. We're better than that. Going with the crowd can lead us astray sometimes.

Also, let's not forget how unpredictable baseball truly is from day to day. Well, except Kershaw on the mound, of course. At the end of the day, we all have to form our own opinions. Data is a notion of the past if you really think about it in the statistical fantasy sense. It shows us what's already happened, not specifically what's about to, even if it points us in that direction. At the end of the day, we have to make our own decisions. Staying connected with the box scores and metrics are important. But it's also important to trust your instincts and use the eye test on a player you're watching. Having the ability to pick the right times to step away from the constant stream of information and data will help us make right decisions more often than not. We can't always be roto-bots.

RISERS

Cameron Maybin (OF, DET)

Maybin finally made his long-awaited 2016 debut after missing nearly three months with a fractured wrist. He did his part to revitalize the team, and the Tigers averaged seven runs per game last week, winning five of six. Maybin had at least one hit in all of them, ending the week with a homer, five RBI, four stolen bases and a .600 batting average. The Tigers actually drafted Maybin in the first round of the 2005 draft before shipping him to the Marlins in the mega deal that landed Miguel Cabrera in Detroit. Maybin's best season was in 2011 when he scored 82 runs and stole 40 bases with the Padres. Any remaining Maybin shares available in leagues were likely scooped up this weekend. Keep in mind that Maybin is a career .253 hitter who has never hit higher than .264 in any big league season. He has only finished with a contact rate above 80 percent once in his career. The 29-year old does offer value for those in need of stolen bases, but that's where the line is drawn. The excitement of being back on the field will wear off soon. Temper your expectations for Maybin beyond anything more than stolen bases.

Trayce Thompson (OF, LAD)

Thompson is quickly becoming a fan favorite and is earning full-time at-bats with the Dodgers. He's still considered a rookie, falling eight at-bats short of qualifying as one last season with the White Sox where he hit .295 in 44 games. Thompson started in all seven games last week, hitting .292 with five runs scored, three homers and five runs batted in. Though he has just 102 plate appearances through seven weeks and doesn't qualify among league leaders, he unofficially ranks among the top 10 in the majors with a .292 ISO. Thompson was a popular and expensive free agent target in NFBC leagues this weekend. He was acquired in the remaining 13 Main Event (15-team) leagues where available at an average price of $123 with a high of $215. Thompson is the team's hottest hitter right now but the Dodgers' outfield is about to become very crowded. The team has Scott Van Slyke and Alex Guerrero returning soon, and eventually Andre Ethier. Not to mention, Carl Crawford and Kike Hernandez in the mix as well to take advantage of platoon splits. None of them pose a threat to take significant at-bats from Thompson even when he hits a rookie wall. Thompson has a bright future in the majors and has provided the Dodgers with a much-needed spark. The glut of outfielders could certainly be an annoying situation to deal with, but hopefully rookie manager Dave Roberts realizes that excessive musical chairs negatively affects the rhythm of his best hitters and he just lets Trayce play.

Marcell Ozuna (OF, MIA)

Ozuna was a late-March ADP riser yet was still the 61st outfielder drafted in NFBC 12-team leagues this spring. One of those ideal mid-round targets with room to exceed value after an unimpressive 2015 season where he played hurt, he was demoted and missed 39 games in all. Some may say that he's breaking out, but his 2014 sophomore season (23 HR, 85 RBI) was quite clearly his breakout and the reason for optimism this season. Through seven weeks, Ozuna is hitting .311 with a .355 OBP, slugging .553, on pace to improve upon that 2014 breakout. His 17 percent HR/FB rate currently matches that 2014 rate and his .242 ISO is nearly 60 points higher. Ozuna has yet to steal a base this season but has a bit of speed. He could toss in a handful of those on the year-end stat line though it's been awhile since 2011 when he had 17 SB in 131 Triple-A games. Three of Ozuna's eight home runs have come in just 26 at-bats against southpaws and he's mashing them (.385), albeit the small sample. Ozuna also has a strong early-season home/road split, hitting .355 in Marlins Park. Ozuna is just 25 years old with power upside to crush 30 or more, despite the home par limitations. He is a sure-fire riser and worth serious attention in the trade market, even if it may appear that dealing for Ozuna is "buying high"

Matt Shoemaker (SP, LAA)

Everyone's favorite DFS target has turned the tables on those who stack against him. Shoemaker made DFS players, naysayers and Orioles hitters look foolish this weekend as he allowed just three hits, striking out 12. It was a game for which he wasn't able to secure a win, as the Orioles came back in dramatic fashion long after he was removed in the seventh inning. Most impressively, Shoemaker's swinging-strike rate in that outing was a knee-buckling 24 percent. The Angels' third-year starter has been roughed up more often than he has succeeded this year – a 6.81 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP – his numbers after the gem against the Orioles. He's a difficult pitcher to make sense of since we truly never know whether Good Matt or Bad Matt is going to show up before each start. As a rookie, Shoemaker held a 3.02 ERA in over 135 innings with a 23 percent strikeout-rate. He then regressed the following season posting a 4.46 ERA and 20 percent k-rate before getting pulled from the rotation. Though we don't always have to play him in our lineups, Shoemaker is worth keeping on rosters because of the potential we witnessed against the Orioles. He lines up for a chance at another double-digit strikeout game (or bust) against the Astros this week.

HONORABLE MENTIONS

Carlos Perez (C, LAA)

Patience let me down once again. Or should I say, I let myself down. I drafted Perez as my second catcher in the NFBC Main Event but couldn't keep waiting for the eventual production. I started to question if it would ever come. Andrew and I dropped Perez after 54 at-bats of .181 with no home runs for his teammate, Geovany Soto, who provided us with just eight at-bats and no hits before he hit the disabled list. In the meantime, Bobby Wilson has been holding down the spot, providing some pop but hurting the average, as most second catchers do. So lo and behold, we were ready to win an easy bid on Perez as he's heating up, and what does he do? Hits a homer with five RBI on Sunday, instantly raising his price and awareness to all my league mates. Not to say that my league mates aren't sharp enough to notice, but the in-your-face stats were screaming "add me." You assumed correctly. Our $29 bid wasn't enough, as those damn "Mad Russians" – two Russian brothers with whom I share two important leagues, sniped us for Perez at a competitive $44 tag. Enjoy him, comrades. Perez hit .412 with 3 HR, 9 RBI and will probably never have a week this season like he just had. But among the dregs that is the second catcher spot, Perez is the guy with the best contact skills and solid, good plate discipline. So now I hope that Perez goes back into a huge slump so that the Mad Russians can drop him for us. And I'm also hoping that they are not reading this right now.

Tyler Duffey (SP, MIN)

On the surface, Duffey is just your run-of-the-mill starting pitcher, nothing fancy. He hurls a fastball at 90 mph and works primarily off an arsenal of three pitches, tossing in the occasional change-up. Duffey's best and most frequent offering is a knuckle-curve that he throws nearly half the time (42 percent, to be exact). Prior to a rough outing against the Blue Jays last week, Duffey strung together four decent starts – one of them a career-high nine strikeout game against the White Sox. Duffey made 10 starts as a rookie, maintaining a respectable 3.10 ERA with nearly a strikeout per inning. Through five starts since his late April promotion, Duffey is issuing free passes at less than a five percent clip and has not walked more than two batters in any of his starts. He calls a nice pitcher's park home and deserves some consideration in your 12-team leagues, if he's still available.

Steven Matz (SP, NYM)

Matz gets some love among the risers this week, but you don't need me to tell you how good he's becoming. Since his seven earned run blowup against the Marlins in his first start of the season, Matz has been flat-out electric. Specifically, a 42:6 K:BB ratio with a 1.35 ERA in 40 innings (six starts). Matz is averaging 93 mph on his sinker; nearly a full tick lower than what he averaged in his few starts as a rookie. But as we know, velocity isn't everything. The movement on his signature offering has induced an 11.5 percent swinging-strike rate over his last two outings. Matz turns 25 next month and has an incredibly bright future as long as he stays healthy and in the rotation. As for this season, Matz should continue to maintain a ground ball rate above 50 percent and average over a strikeout per inning. With a full season of consistency, Matz will enter the conversation as a true SP1 come next March. He has his first true tough matchup of the season this week, on the road against the Nationals.

FALLERS

Lucas Duda (1B, NYM)

Duda was a great draft value heading into the season — very underrated at a 145 ADP despite mashing 30 homers in 2014 and figuring out lefties last season (.285 against them after hitting .180 in 2014). He's droppable in 10-teamers, but, unfortunately, those who own him in 12-team leagues have a difficult decision to make. Duda hit the disabled list on Monday with a stress fracture in his back, after struggling with back pain for the last week and a half. In what seems to be prototypical Mets fashion, there's no timetable on Duda's return. Only that he'll be out "a while." Even for those of us who plan on holding onto him, there will come a point in the next few weeks where we'll be tempted to add a player in FAAB, and Duda will stick out to us as the drop. There are several factors involved in deciding what to do with him. Much depends on how active and efficient one is with timing free agent pickups. Moreover, the depth of our bench plays a huge part in the decision as well. Any amount less than seven reserve spots in 12-teamers and he's quite clearly a drop. Seven-man benches in NFBC puts us in a difficult quandary. We know exactly who Duda is when he's healthy – one of the National League's strongest power bats who makes poor contact and is extremely streaky. He gave back any gains he made against southpaws, managing a .040 average in limited at-bats, often sitting against them. I'll be interested to hear our injury expert Jeff Stotts' take on how long he expects Duda to be out. Common sense tells us that a back injury may take "a while" to recover from, and that it adversely affects one's swing and power. Hold on to Duda until the weekend and make your informed decision after reading Jeff's take.

Addison Russell (MI, CHC)

It's difficult to decide for which prospects we want to fork out the big FAAB cash each season in redraft leagues. Without a crystal ball, we can either throw money up at the wall and see what sticks, or we can be discerning in our projections. Last season, Carlos Correa and Francisco Lindor were the middle infielders for whom I was saving, as I decided not to throw more than high double-digit "keep them honest" bids at Russell in NFBC leagues. It was clear that he was advanced defensively, but I assumed that the offensive prowess would take a bit longer to develop. He put up helpful counting stats as a rookie, but managed to hit just .242, striking out in 28 percent of his at-bats. Russell wasn't a huge target for me this spring, but there was certainly some allure, as he's a dual eligible (2B, SS) hitter on a powerhouse Cubs squad, despite the low lineup slot. Last week was a rough stretch for most Cubs' hitters, including Russell, who managed just one hit in 20 at-bats with no runs scored. That dropped his average to .234. On the bright side, Russell is on pace to eclipse last year's numbers and he's doing a great job getting on base. His 13 percent walk rate is five whole points higher than his rookie season total (8%) and he heads into Week 8 with a .342 OBP – an improvement over last season's disappointing .307 OBP. It would take more than just a Jason Heyward injury for Russell to move into the second spot in the Cubs' lineup. Though the opportunity could provide the confidence boost Russell needs to make adjustments at the plate and hit for better contact. In the meantime, all Russell owners can do is to leave him in their lineups and hope he doesn't continue to be a batting average drain.

Carlos Gonzalez (OF, COL)

Is it just me, or was CaGo's batting average .330 not too long ago? Pardon the rhetorical; in fact he was. Now he's mired in a horrendous slump, currently down to .265 on the season. Last week was especially pitiful as Gonzalez managed just two walks and no hits in 18 plate appearances. He even rode the pine for two games but was called upon on an unsuccessful pinch-hit attempt on Sunday. Gonzalez hit three long balls in the first week of the season, but has managed just two in his last 35 games. So far this month, Gonzalez has hit just one home run. There have been no whispers of potential injury, and Gonzalez has (knock on wood) maintained nearly full health since the beginning of the 2015 season. He crushed a career-high 40 home runs last year but was incredibly streaky. In fact, he hit just 13 home runs by the all-star break and hit 27 after the break in just 260 at-bats, helping many of his league owners clinch league championships off of his bat. Though not much has shifted in his actual walk and strikeout rates recently, everyone who has watched him knows that this is a new CarGo. A CarGo with a swing-for-the-fences approach. A very streaky CarGo. If he's not hurt, then you can expect a power spike to occur at some point in the season again. We just don't know when the barrage will take place. Until then, we just have to leave the fourth-round fantasy pick in our lineups and hope for it to resurface as soon as possible.

Michael Wacha (SP, STL)

Perhaps we've all been wrong about Wacha. Perhaps Wacha isn't the next great Cardinals ace in whom fans and fantasy owners have placed their faith. Wacha has had flashes of brilliance in a couple of his outings, but at the end of the day, he's unreliable and has been a big disappointment at his high ADP of 102. Wacha failed to make it past the fourth inning and allowed eight hits in each of his last two starts. The Rockies' start was a particularly rough one, as he served up six runs of the earned variety. Typically known for his impeccable control, Wacha has walked three or more batters in three of his six starts this season. He heads into Week 8 of the season with a 2-4 record, 4.03 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. Wacha may not be the mound magician we envisioned during his rookie 2013 playoff run before the Red Sox humbled him in the World Series. What Wacha is, is a good No. 2 starter with above-average control who calls a nice ballpark home and has a respectable offense behind him. A rich man's Mike Leake, if you will.

Kenta Maeda (SP, LAD)

Despite much trepidation, Maeda owners were graciously rewarded as he started his big league career with a string of four lovely starts. He notched wins in three of them, posting a 24:4 K:BB ratio and allowing just one earned run. Just as quickly, regression reared its ugly head. Three losses in his next four starts with a 20:9 K:BB and 14 earned runs allowed. Not much changed when you dig into the peripherals, though. His three best swinging-strike rates came within those bad four outings. His fastball was down a tick in three of those four, but that isn't really of concern. What was concerning is that Maeda displayed a lack of control and a smidge of frustration for the first time in his baseball career this side of the Pacific. His confidence and demeanor on the mound are still unflinching, but the confidence in his delivery is just not as staunch. Somewhere in between those four first starts and the latest four is who Maeda truly is. His truest tests come in the following weeks as he visits the Mets and Cubs in their home parks. Our expectation may be continued regression, but the unknown remains. Maeda could throw two gems and we wouldn't be the least bit surprised. Let's step back and analyze him again around the All Star break, with a bigger sample.