We're back! The break is over, and MLB gets back to proper action Friday. That means it's time to get back to MLB DFS action, and to my recommendations. It's a good time to be making these picks. One, I'm hyped to get back at it. Two, because there were no games Thursday I didn't have to worry about statistical changes or guys getting hurt!
Pitching
Chris Bassitt, TOR vs. SFG ($8,100): Bassitt is at home, so it's all good. Since 2023 he has a 3.49 ERA at home and a 4.46 ERA on the road. This year, though, he has a 2.81 ERA in Toronto. Somewhat quietly, the Giants are not all that good offensively. They rank 21st in runs scored and have a .679 OPS as a team.
Reese Olson, DET at TEX ($7,600): Okay, it's time for the Tigers to get back in gear! I say that from a DFS perspective, and also as a Tigers fan. Olson is overlooked in this rotation, but he has a 3.20 FIP this year after having a 3.16 FIP last season. The Rangers rank 23rd in runs scored, and they have a .676 OPS at a squad. Texas also features a few players who don't do as well at home offensively.
Sandy Alcantara, MIA vs. KAN ($6,000): A guy with a Cy Young has the second-lowest salary of any pitcher Friday and is facing a bad offense. I know Alcantara has been bad this year. Obviously, there is some talent in his arm, even if said arm has dealt with injury. The Royals are 29th in runs scored, and also in home runs. If you want to roll the dice, Alcantara is the guy. He doesn't even have to flash his Cy Young form. If he can just put a quality start together he'll be worth it at this salary.
Top Targets
Though, like many young hitters, Junior Caminero ($5,000) is flawed at the plate, he's got remarkable power. He's slugged .499 and hit 23 home runs in 91 games. Plus, he's been better against his fellow righties, who he has an .827 OPS against. Charlie Morton, at the polar opposite end of his career from Caminero, has a 5.97 ERA on the road. Additionally, since 2023 righties have hit .265 against him.
On the flip side, there's Gunnar Henderson ($4,500). He started slow, and injuries can be blamed, but he's now up to a slash line of .280/.348/.455 with 11 homers, three triples, and 10 stolen bases in 88 games. All in all, the issues have really been against southpaws. Henderson has a .909 OPS versus righties. Taj Bradley has been better at keeping the ball in the park, but mostly on the road. At home, in Tampa's temporary home, he has a 5.55 ERA and 1.5 HR/9 rate.
Bargain Bats
Before the break, Spencer Torkelson ($4,200) got back in gear. He had an 1.002 OPS in the 16 games prior to MLB's hiatus. On top of that, on the year he has an 1.003 OPS versus lefties. Patrick Corbin has been better this year than usual. I've dunked on him many a time over the last few seasons so I want to note that. However, he still has a 1.35 HR/9 rate and righties have still hit .280 against him. Better than his recent norm, but not exactly good on either front.
Coors Field has gotten an assist, to be sure, but Mickey Moniak ($3,900) has worked hard to avoid the "bust" label. He'll likely never live up to being a first-overall pick, but this year he's hit .257 with 13 homers, five stolen bases, and an impressive six triples in 79 games. Yes, Moniak still can't handle lefties, but he has an .852 OPS against righties. Chris Paddack is in line to start for the Twins, and since 2023 the righty has a 5.79 ERA on the road. This game is not just on the road, but in Denver.
Stacks to Consider
Twins at Rockies (Kyle Freeland): Byron Buxton ($6,500), Ryan Jeffers ($4,700), Carlos Correa ($4,200)
We get back from the break and go right into a series at Coors Field! Freeland has a career 4.55 ERA and 6.73 K/9 rate. Of course, there's also the matter of when he pitches at home, and since 2023 the lefty has a 5.16 ERA at home. I just noted Freeland is a lefty, and in that same time frame righties have hit .306 against him. Thus, I have three righties in this stack.
Buxton's incredible campaign continues apace, even if we must continue to cross our fingers related to his health. He has an 1.087 OPS versus lefties this season, and also an 1.036 OPS over the last three weeks of MLB action. Jeffers is a good pick at catcher, mostly because he's a righty at Coors Field. That being said, since 2023 he's slugged .482 against lefties, another reason to make him your catcher selection. Correa is having a down year, but he's been fine good against lefties, posting an .881 OPS in those matchups. At shortstop, and at this salary, he's well worth a roster spot.
Blue Jays vs. Giants (Justin Verlander): Vladimir Guerrero ($5,500), George Springer ($5,300), Addison Barger ($4,500)
I mentioned my Tigers fandom already, and so unsurprisingly I have no enthusiasm for Verlander petering out as he holds on for whatever personal goals. He had a 5.48 ERA with the Astros last season, and this year he has a 4.70 ERA with the Giants. Of course, San Francisco has a good park for pitchers, and Verlander's road ERA is 4.99. The Blue Jays turn to few lefties, but that's okay. I got one lefty in the mix, and righties have hit .274 against Verlander this season anyway.
Guerrero is hitting more liners than moon shots, as his line-drive rate is 21.8 percent. Additionally, 41.2 percent of his hits have qualified as "hard." If you hit a line drive hard, it tends to bode well. Vladito has been better at home for good measure, having an .856 OPS in Toronto. Springer has rebounded this year. He's hit .270 with 16 home runs and 11 stolen bases. He has a .929 OPS at home, but he also has an .892 OPS versus his fellow righties. Barger is the lefty, and he's having a breakthrough campaign. He has 13 home runs and 21 doubles through 72 contests. Barger's slugged .537 against righties (he barely walks which means his OPS looks less impressive), and he's slugged .532 at home for good measure.
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