MLB: Hitting Prospect Tiers 2.0

MLB: Hitting Prospect Tiers 2.0

This article is part of our Farm Futures series.

The first version of this article came out three months ago, and with my top 400 prospect rankings fully updated, I wanted to update these redraft tiers. This year, I'm breaking it up into separate articles for hitters and pitchers. I included essentially every hitter (107 total) who I think has a chance of playing in the majors this season. In the bigger tiers, I found it useful to break up the players by team, so that you can see who each guy might be competing with and compare players in the same organization. Please let me know in the comments if you think I left anyone out — chances are I left them out on purpose or they are no longer prospect eligible. I wrote the outlooks for every player in the first five tiers, so go to the player's page if you want a full breakdown. The positions next to each player are the positions they are eligible at in the NFBC, not necessarily the positions they will play while in the majors this year.

Two additions I've made for Vol. 2.0: for each player, I've included their NFBC 15-team Draft Champions ADP from Jan. 12 - Feb. 11 as well as my NFBC player shares from my four completed draft-and-hold teams (plus two other drafts that are ongoing).

Priced Out

Bobby Witt SS (ADP: 88.6, Shares 0/6) 

With Witt, I can see a very clear path to him finishing as a top-200 player this year, and

The first version of this article came out three months ago, and with my top 400 prospect rankings fully updated, I wanted to update these redraft tiers. This year, I'm breaking it up into separate articles for hitters and pitchers. I included essentially every hitter (107 total) who I think has a chance of playing in the majors this season. In the bigger tiers, I found it useful to break up the players by team, so that you can see who each guy might be competing with and compare players in the same organization. Please let me know in the comments if you think I left anyone out — chances are I left them out on purpose or they are no longer prospect eligible. I wrote the outlooks for every player in the first five tiers, so go to the player's page if you want a full breakdown. The positions next to each player are the positions they are eligible at in the NFBC, not necessarily the positions they will play while in the majors this year.

Two additions I've made for Vol. 2.0: for each player, I've included their NFBC 15-team Draft Champions ADP from Jan. 12 - Feb. 11 as well as my NFBC player shares from my four completed draft-and-hold teams (plus two other drafts that are ongoing).

Priced Out

Bobby Witt SS (ADP: 88.6, Shares 0/6) 

With Witt, I can see a very clear path to him finishing as a top-200 player this year, and it's possible he finishes as a top-50 player. However, I have zero interest at his current draft cost. Just looking at shortstops, Jorge Polanco (going five picks ahead of him) and Dansby Swanson (going 35 picks after him) are clearly preferable. If I took Witt, I'd be hoping for 20/20 with a .240 AVG -- that's a very optimistic projection, and the floor is that he ends up being a net negative.

Blue Chippers Who Will Be Up Soon

I broke this tier up into two groups, the first being players I think could be up very early in the season, the second being players who will probably spend at least a couple months in the minors but who could be very valuable once they are up. These are all top 25 prospects.

Adley Rutschman C (ADP: 203, Shares 0/6) 

Oneil Cruz SS (ADP: 203, Shares 0/6) 

Riley Greene OF (ADP: 304.2, Shares 4/5) 

Josh Jung 3B (ADP: 286.7, Shares 1/5) 

Josh Lowe OF (ADP: 388.6, Shares 1/5) 

Spencer Torkelson 1B (ADP: 259.3, Shares 0/5) 

-------------------------------------

Brennen Davis OF (ADP: 551, Shares 3/4) 

Triston Casas 1B (ADP: 477.5, Shares 1/5) 

Gabriel Moreno C (ADP: 469.5, Shares 0/4) 

Julio Rodriguez OF (ADP: 266.9, Shares 1/5) 

Proximity + Opportunity

With the exception of Joey Bart (something went really, really wrong if he's my second catcher), all of these players are on my draft board for draft and holds. As you can see from the player shares, I'm very interested in the Guardians and Pirates in this tier. I also like Kyle Isbel quite a bit, but I've been shut out on him thus far.

ROYALS

Kyle Isbel OF (ADP: 447, Shares 1/5) 

PHILLIES

Bryson Stott SS (ADP: 427, Shares 0/5) 

ASTROS

Jeremy Pena SS (ADP: 437.1, Shares 0/5) 

GIANTS

Joey Bart C (ADP: 318.6, Shares 0/5) 

GUARDIANS

Steven Kwan OF (ADP: 462.7, Shares 1/4) 

Richie Palacios 2B (ADP: 738.6, Shares 2/4) 

DIAMONDBACKS

Alek Thomas OF (ADP: 544.7, Shares 0/4) 

Geraldo Perdomo SS (ADP: 663.6, Shares 0/4) 

Seth Beer UT (ADP: 566.1, Shares 0/4) 

PIRATES

Travis Swaggerty OF (ADP: 697, Shares 3/4) 

Diego Castillo 2B (ADP: 728.9, Shares 1/4) 

CARDINALS

Juan Yepez 1B (ADP: 465.7, Shares 0/4) 

ROCKIES

Elehuris Montero 3B (ADP: 710.7, Shares 0/4) 

Ryan Vilade OF (ADP: 718.2, Shares 1/4) 

Proximity Without Opportunity

The path to playing time for these guys is murky, but an injury or a trade could open things up.

RAYS

Vidal Brujan OF (ADP: 317.7, Shares 0/5) 

TWINS

Jose Miranda 3B (ADP: 395.1, Shares 1/5) 

ROYALS

MJ Melendez C (ADP: 399.3, Shares 0/5)  

WHITE SOX

Jake Burger 3B (ADP: 627.3, Shares 1/4)

CARDINALS

Nolan Gorman 2B (ADP: 470.2, Shares 0/4) 

GUARDIANS

Gabriel Arias SS (ADP: 748.6, Shares 0/4) 

Quality Long Shots

These players aren't close enough to debuting to stash in regular redraft leagues, and I'm not overly interested in taking them in draft-and-hold leagues. However, odds are at least one or two will generate some buzz as a FAAB add this summer.

ASTROS

Pedro Leon OF (ADP: 736.1, Shares 0/4) 

TWINS

Austin Martin OF (ADP: 730.2, Shares 0/4) 

Royce Lewis SS (ADP: 712.1, Shares 0/4) 

DODGERS

Miguel Vargas 3B (ADP: 738.1, Shares 0/4) 

Michael Busch 2B (ADP: 750, Shares 0/4) 

BLUE JAYS

Jordan Groshans SS (ADP: 734, Shares 0/4) 

METS

Mark Vientos 3B (ADP: 744.9, Shares 0/4) 

RAYS

Jonathan Aranda 1B (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/4) 

YANKEES

Oswald Peraza SS (ADP: 735.2, Shares 0/4) 

GUARDIANS

Tyler Freeman 2B (ADP: 750.5, Shares 0/4) 

ROYALS

Vinnie Pasquantino 1B (ADP: 701.2, Shares 0/4) 

PADRES 

CJ Abrams SS (ADP: 611, Shares 0/4)

Low Probability Depth Options

I'm not high on any of these guys from a talent/readiness/opportunity standpoint. That said, we will see many of them on big-league rosters throughout the season and inevitably a handful of them will provide value.

RED SOX

Jarren Duran OF (ADP: 360.8, Shares 0/4)

Jeter Downs SS (ADP: 722.4, Shares 0/4) 

ATLANTA

Cristian Pache OF (ADP: 628, Shares 0/4) 

Drew Waters OF (ADP: 714.6, Shares 0/4) 

GUARDIANS

Nolan Jones 3B (ADP: 636.5, Shares 0/4) 

Oscar Gonzalez OF (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/4) 

ROYALS

Nick Pratto 1B (ADP: 476.6, Shares 0/4) 

PHILLIES

Matt Vierling OF (ADP: 515.4, Shares 0/4) 

DIAMONDBACKS

Jake McCarthy OF (ADP: 703.6, Shares 0/4) 

Stuart Fairchild OF (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/4) 

Cooper Hummel OF (ADP: 728.2, Shares 0/4) 

Drew Ellis 3B (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/4) 

WHITE SOX

Romy Gonzalez 3B (ADP: 738.2, Shares 1/4) 

Micker Adolfo OF (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/4) 

PIRATES

Rodolfo Castro 2B (ADP: 749.1, Shares 0/4) 

Tucupita Marcano 2B (ADP: 736.5, Shares 0/4) 

Canaan Smith-Njigba OF (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/4)  

Mason Martin 1B (ADP: 750.1, Shares 0/4) 

Cal Mitchell OF (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/4) 

ANGELS

Brendon Davis 3B (ADP: 749.4, Shares 0/4) 

Michael Stefanic 2B (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/4) 

GIANTS

Heliot Ramos OF (ADP: 714.3, Shares 0/4) 

YANKEES

Oswaldo Cabrera 2B (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/4) 

Estevan Florial OF (ADP: 740.6, Shares 0/4) 

TIGERS

Ryan Kreidler SS (ADP: 749.2, Shares 0/4) 

CUBS

Alfonso Rivas OF (ADP: 750.3, Shares 0/4) 

Nelson Velazquez OF (ADP: 744.1, Shares 0/4) 

ORIOLES

Kyle Stowers OF (ADP: 750.8, Shares 0/4) 

Jahmai Jones 2B (ADP: 747.1, Shares 0/4) 

BLUE JAYS

Otto Lopez 2B (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/4) 

Kevin Smith 3B (ADP: 709.8, Shares 0/4) 

Samad Taylor 2B (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/4) 

ATHLETICS

Nick Allen SS (ADP: 749.4, Shares 0/4) 

Cody Thomas OF (ADP: 749.2, Shares 0/4) 

Luis Barrera OF (ADP: 747.3, Shares 0/4) 

CARDINALS

Brendan Donovan 2B (ADP: 742.1, Shares 0/4) 

Alec Burleson OF (ADP: 749.8, Shares 0/4) 

METS

Khalil Lee OF (ADP: 749.6, Shares 0/4) 

Nick Plummer OF (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/4) 

Carlos Cortes OF (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/4) 

Carlos Rincon OF (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/4) 

ROCKIES

Colton Welker 3B (ADP: 652.6, Shares 0/4) 

DODGERS

Luke Raley OF (ADP: Undrafted , Shares 0/4) 

Ryan Noda 1B (ADP: 749.6, Shares 0/4) 

RANGERS

Sherten Apostel 1B (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/4) 

Zach Reks OF (ADP: 749.5, Shares 0/4) 

Bubba Thompson OF (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/4) 

MARLINS

Peyton Burdick OF (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/4) 

JJ Bleday OF (ADP: 717.6, Shares 0/4) 

BREWERS

Brice Turang SS (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/4) 

NATIONALS

Donovan Casey OF (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/4) 

REDS

Alejo Lopez 2B (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/4) 

PADRES

Eguy Rosario SS (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/4) 

Jorge Ona OF (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/4) 

RAYS

Miles Mastrobuoni SS (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/4) 

Esteban Quiroz 2B (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/4) 

Catching Depth

These aren't catchers who are likely to play much this season, but injuries could open up playing time. Even with playing time, odds are they would not provide positive fantasy value as rookies.

Shea Langeliers C (ADP: 732.6, Shares 0/4) 

Logan O'Hoppe C (ADP: 750.6, Shares 0/4) 

Bryan Lavastida C (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/4) 

Korey Lee C (ADP: 748.3, Shares 0/4) 

Luis Campusano C (ADP: 574.9, Shares 0/4) 

Sam Huff 1B (ADP: 586.4, Shares 0/4) 

Mario Feliciano C (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/4) 

Miguel Amaya C (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/4) 

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
James Anderson
James Anderson is RotoWire's Lead Prospect Analyst, Assistant Baseball Editor, and co-host of Farm Fridays on Sirius/XM radio and the RotoWire Prospect Podcast.
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