I cringe every time Carlos Hernandez is brought up in conversation. He was a serviceable pitcher with a 3.68 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 7.8 K/9. The deal is that there were two separate sides to this profile.
In the 13 games in which he pitched in relief, he posted a 11.9 K/9 while that number dropped to 5.9 K/9 in his 11 starts. His fastball velocity started out at 98 mph. While he was able to maintain it for a bit, it dropped to 96.6 mph over his last four starts. Also, he couldn't maintain his production the second time through the order with a 2.96 FIP the first time through and a 5.75 FIP the second time. Simply, he had a 5 K-BB% as a starter. Dallas Keuchel was the only qualified pitcher to have anything close to a 5 K-BB% (next closest was Cole Irvin at 11%). If the innings threshold is dropped to 100 IP, some comparables are John Gant, Jose Urena, Jon Lester, Zach Davies.
My goal is not to beat up on Carlos Hernandez, but he's an example of a 2021 pitcher who had two different starter and reliever profiles. Today, I'm going to dig into several more of these arms who transitioned from starter to reliever.
In all, there were 65 pitchers who started five games and relieved in five games in 2021.
| As Starter | As Reliever | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Name | G | IP |
I cringe every time Carlos Hernandez is brought up in conversation. He was a serviceable pitcher with a 3.68 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 7.8 K/9. The deal is that there were two separate sides to this profile.
In the 13 games in which he pitched in relief, he posted a 11.9 K/9 while that number dropped to 5.9 K/9 in his 11 starts. His fastball velocity started out at 98 mph. While he was able to maintain it for a bit, it dropped to 96.6 mph over his last four starts. Also, he couldn't maintain his production the second time through the order with a 2.96 FIP the first time through and a 5.75 FIP the second time. Simply, he had a 5 K-BB% as a starter. Dallas Keuchel was the only qualified pitcher to have anything close to a 5 K-BB% (next closest was Cole Irvin at 11%). If the innings threshold is dropped to 100 IP, some comparables are John Gant, Jose Urena, Jon Lester, Zach Davies.
My goal is not to beat up on Carlos Hernandez, but he's an example of a 2021 pitcher who had two different starter and reliever profiles. Today, I'm going to dig into several more of these arms who transitioned from starter to reliever.
In all, there were 65 pitchers who started five games and relieved in five games in 2021.
| As Starter | As Reliever | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Name | G | IP | K/9 | WHIP | ERA | G | IP | K/9 | WHIP | ERA |
| Adbert Alzolay | 21 | 106.1 | 9.1 | 1.2 | 5.16 | 8 | 19.1 | 9.8 | 0.93 | 1.4 |
| Adrian Sampson | 5 | 24 | 6.8 | 1.08 | 3 | 5 | 11.1 | 7.9 | 1.06 | 2.38 |
| Alec Mills | 20 | 99.1 | 6.5 | 1.38 | 4.8 | 12 | 19.2 | 6.9 | 1.73 | 6.41 |
| Andrew Heaney | 23 | 120 | 10.5 | 1.27 | 5.48 | 7 | 9.2 | 9.3 | 1.97 | 10.24 |
| Anthony Kay | 5 | 20.1 | 11.1 | 1.48 | 4.43 | 6 | 13.1 | 9.5 | 1.95 | 7.43 |
| Cal Quantrill | 22 | 121 | 7.4 | 1.15 | 3.12 | 18 | 28.2 | 6.9 | 1.29 | 1.88 |
| Caleb Smith | 13 | 57 | 10.3 | 1.6 | 6.95 | 32 | 56.2 | 9.4 | 1.15 | 2.7 |
| Carlos Hernandez | 11 | 58.1 | 5.9 | 1.25 | 3.55 | 13 | 27.1 | 11.9 | 1.35 | 3.95 |
| Chad Kuhl | 14 | 67 | 7.8 | 1.36 | 4.43 | 14 | 13.1 | 11.5 | 1.8 | 6.75 |
| Chase Anderson | 9 | 36.1 | 6.7 | 1.54 | 6.94 | 5 | 11.2 | 6.2 | 1.29 | 6.17 |
| Chi Chi Gonzalez | 18 | 87 | 5 | 1.52 | 6.62 | 6 | 14.2 | 4.9 | 1.57 | 5.52 |
| Collin McHugh | 7 | 12 | 9 | 0.58 | 0 | 30 | 52 | 10.7 | 1.02 | 1.9 |
| Cristian Javier | 9 | 48.2 | 10.7 | 1.03 | 3.14 | 27 | 52.2 | 12.3 | 1.33 | 3.93 |
| David Price | 11 | 41.1 | 7.4 | 1.16 | 3.92 | 28 | 32.1 | 6.7 | 1.76 | 4.18 |
| Dinelson Lamet | 9 | 29.1 | 9.5 | 1.43 | 3.99 | 13 | 17.2 | 13.2 | 1.58 | 5.09 |
| Drew Rasmussen | 10 | 42 | 6 | 0.76 | 1.93 | 25 | 34 | 11.9 | 1.47 | 3.97 |
| Drew Smyly | 23 | 115.2 | 8.5 | 1.38 | 4.75 | 6 | 11 | 6.5 | 1.27 | 1.64 |
| Garrett Richards | 22 | 110.1 | 7.1 | 1.65 | 5.22 | 18 | 26.1 | 9.6 | 1.37 | 3.42 |
| Humberto Castellanos | 7 | 34 | 5 | 1.44 | 5.56 | 7 | 11.2 | 7.7 | 1.2 | 3.09 |
| Jake Woodford | 8 | 37 | 5.8 | 1.41 | 4.14 | 18 | 30.2 | 7.6 | 1.27 | 3.82 |
| Jakob Junis | 6 | 27.1 | 10.2 | 1.24 | 4.61 | 10 | 12 | 7.5 | 1.75 | 6.75 |
| J.C. Mejia | 11 | 42.1 | 7.7 | 1.8 | 9.78 | 6 | 10 | 9.9 | 0.8 | 1.8 |
| Jeff Hoffman | 11 | 45 | 7.8 | 1.67 | 5.2 | 20 | 28 | 12.9 | 1.43 | 3.54 |
| Jesus Luzardo | 18 | 85.1 | 9.3 | 1.61 | 6.22 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 1.7 | 9.9 |
| John Gant | 21 | 89.2 | 7.3 | 1.57 | 4.42 | 18 | 20.1 | 8.4 | 1.23 | 2.66 |
| Jorge Lopez | 25 | 113.1 | 8.1 | 1.68 | 6.35 | 8 | 8.1 | 10.8 | 0.96 | 2.16 |
| Jose Quintana | 10 | 35 | 13.1 | 2.06 | 8.23 | 19 | 28 | 10.9 | 1.32 | 4.18 |
| Jose Suarez | 14 | 71 | 7.5 | 1.28 | 4.44 | 9 | 27.1 | 8.6 | 1.1 | 1.98 |
| Jose Urena | 18 | 83 | 5.9 | 1.63 | 5.96 | 8 | 17.2 | 6.6 | 1.47 | 5.09 |
| Josh Fleming | 11 | 56.1 | 6.2 | 1.51 | 6.23 | 15 | 48 | 4.9 | 1.17 | 3.75 |
| Justin Steele | 9 | 43.2 | 7.8 | 1.44 | 4.95 | 11 | 13.1 | 14.2 | 1.05 | 2.03 |
| Justus Sheffield | 15 | 73.2 | 7.2 | 1.78 | 6.48 | 6 | 6.2 | 5.4 | 2.55 | 10.8 |
| Keegan Akin | 17 | 77 | 7.6 | 1.65 | 6.9 | 7 | 18 | 8.5 | 1.28 | 5.5 |
| Keegan Thompson | 6 | 16.1 | 7.7 | 1.9 | 5.51 | 26 | 37 | 10 | 1.3 | 2.43 |
| Kolby Allard | 17 | 91.2 | 6.6 | 1.21 | 5.4 | 15 | 33 | 10.1 | 1.45 | 5.45 |
| Kris Bubic | 20 | 103.2 | 8 | 1.41 | 4.77 | 9 | 26.1 | 7.5 | 1.29 | 3.08 |
| Kwang Hyun Kim | 21 | 96.2 | 6.9 | 1.27 | 3.63 | 6 | 10 | 5.4 | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| Martin Perez | 22 | 100 | 7.7 | 1.52 | 4.77 | 14 | 14 | 7.7 | 1.43 | 4.5 |
| Matt Moore | 13 | 56.1 | 8.1 | 1.7 | 6.55 | 11 | 16.2 | 6.5 | 1.2 | 5.4 |
| Matt Peacock | 8 | 34 | 6.4 | 1.68 | 5.29 | 27 | 52.1 | 4.5 | 1.49 | 4.64 |
| Matt Shoemaker | 11 | 50.2 | 6 | 1.58 | 7.28 | 5 | 9.2 | 5.6 | 2.07 | 12.1 |
| Michael King | 6 | 24.2 | 7.3 | 1.58 | 5.47 | 16 | 38.2 | 9.8 | 1.09 | 2.33 |
| Michael Wacha | 23 | 107.1 | 8.6 | 1.26 | 4.53 | 6 | 17.1 | 9.9 | 1.62 | 8.31 |
| Nestor Cortes | 14 | 73.1 | 9.2 | 1.06 | 3.07 | 8 | 19.2 | 12.8 | 1.12 | 2.29 |
| Paolo Espino | 19 | 86 | 7.5 | 1.29 | 4.5 | 16 | 23.2 | 7.6 | 0.93 | 3.42 |
| Randy Dobnak | 6 | 34.1 | 3.7 | 1.46 | 6.29 | 8 | 16.1 | 7.2 | 1.71 | 10.47 |
| Ranger Suarez | 12 | 65.2 | 8.9 | 1.08 | 1.51 | 27 | 40.1 | 9.4 | 0.87 | 1.12 |
| Reiss Knehr | 5 | 15.1 | 5.3 | 1.43 | 6.46 | 7 | 13.2 | 7.2 | 1.54 | 3.29 |
| Reynaldo Lopez | 9 | 37.1 | 8 | 1.13 | 4.1 | 11 | 20.1 | 9.7 | 0.64 | 2.21 |
| Riley Smith | 6 | 25 | 2.9 | 1.76 | 7.92 | 18 | 42.1 | 6 | 1.35 | 4.89 |
| Ross Detwiler | 5 | 7.2 | 10.6 | 2.22 | 15.26 | 48 | 44.2 | 10.7 | 1.05 | 2.82 |
| Ross Stripling | 19 | 86.1 | 8.8 | 1.27 | 4.69 | 5 | 15 | 6 | 1.27 | 5.4 |
| Ryan Weathers | 18 | 69.1 | 6.5 | 1.53 | 6.36 | 12 | 25.1 | 7.8 | 0.99 | 2.49 |
| Ryan Yarbrough | 21 | 117 | 6.7 | 1.26 | 5.46 | 9 | 38 | 7.1 | 1.11 | 4.03 |
| Sam Hentges | 12 | 41 | 7.9 | 1.95 | 7.9 | 18 | 27.2 | 10.4 | 1.52 | 4.88 |
| Sammy Long | 5 | 22.1 | 9.3 | 1.21 | 4.43 | 7 | 18.1 | 7.4 | 1.36 | 6.87 |
| Sean Nolin | 5 | 17.2 | 8.2 | 1.7 | 5.6 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 1.67 | 2 |
| Spenser Watkins | 10 | 46 | 6.3 | 1.67 | 7.63 | 6 | 8.2 | 3.1 | 1.85 | 10.38 |
| Tanner Houck | 13 | 58.2 | 11.2 | 1.13 | 3.68 | 5 | 10.1 | 12.2 | 1.16 | 2.61 |
| Taylor Hearn | 11 | 51 | 6.5 | 1.29 | 5.82 | 31 | 53.1 | 9.3 | 1.35 | 3.54 |
| Taylor Widener | 13 | 61 | 9.4 | 1.39 | 4.28 | 10 | 9.1 | 8.7 | 1.82 | 4.82 |
| Trevor Williams | 15 | 68.2 | 8.8 | 1.51 | 4.33 | 8 | 22.1 | 9.3 | 1.43 | 4.43 |
| Tyler Alexander | 15 | 66.2 | 7 | 1.22 | 3.38 | 26 | 39.2 | 7.9 | 1.34 | 4.54 |
| Wade LeBlanc | 9 | 37.1 | 5.1 | 1.58 | 4.34 | 9 | 11.2 | 6.2 | 1.2 | 4.63 |
| Zach Thompson | 14 | 63.2 | 7.8 | 1.15 | 3.25 | 12 | 11.1 | 8.7 | 1.59 | 3.18 |
Here are my thoughts on several of these pitchers (in alphabetical order by first and then last name, same as above).
Adbert Alzolay: A major split in talent from being a starter (17 K-BB%) and reliever (25 K-BB%). His walks jumped some (0.9 BB/9 to 2.7 BB/9) but remained reasonable. His main struggles stemmed from his HR/9 going from 0.5 to 2.0. He's basically just a two-pitch guy (fastball-slider) and therefore struggles each subsequent time through the batting order.
Role: K%-BB%
Reliever: 25%
1st TTO as SP: 21%
2nd TTO: 16%
3rd TTO: 10%
There is hope. He threw his changeup just seven percent of the time. The pitch had a 15 SwStr% and 52 GB%. It would be nice to see him bump its usage up to at least 20%.
Cal Quantrill: I don't fully understand how he lowered his ERA from 4.32 (bullpen and few starts) to 1.94 ERA in the second half while throwing exclusively as a starter. All his ERA estimators remained around 4.00. His strikeout rate went from 6.3 K/9 to 8.0 K/9 as he threw his sinker (7 SwStr%, 50 GB%) fewer times (54% in April to 35% in September). He did move from a slider (14 SwStr%, 40 GB%) to a cutter (12 SwStr%, 39 GB%). While I believe he improved, the low ERA and WHIP (1.03 WHIP) were from a .240 BABIP and I'll bet on regression to the ERA estimators.
Jose Suarez: While a .267 BABIP helped make his combined stats look acceptable (3.75 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 7.8 K/9), he struggled when starting (4.44 ERA with matching ERA estimators). While he throws a bad curve and sinker, he's basically just a fastball-slider (20 SwStr%) guy. That combination works out of the bullpen. When he was forced to throw the sinker and curve, he struggled. His K-BB% dropped from 16% the first time through the order to 7% the second time, and 6% the third time. He is a perfect example of why it's important to split apart the starting and relieving results.
Keegan Thompson: I remember at one time last season having some interest in Thompson, but that quickly faded. Simply, I could not stomach a 1.48 WHIP coming from a 5.2 BB/9 (6.1 BB/9 as a starter). It was well above the 3.5 BB/9 (9 BB%) limit I set for pitchers. Additionally, his fastball lost over 2 mph when he transitioned to starting. If he ever starts throwing strikes... he had decent-enough results on his cutter (13 SwStr%, 50 GB%) and curve (14 SwStr%, 47 GB%) to take a step forward.
Randy Dobnak: I was a huge Dobnack fan coming into the 2021 season. He never struck out many batters (5.2 K/9 in 2020), but the lack of walks and an over 60 GB% were worth the risk. Instead, he focused on his sinker too much (44% to 59% usage) and had no swing-and-miss (3.7 K/9) as a starter. The groundball rate on all his pitches collapsed (sinker: 72% to 65%, slider: 58% to 36%, change: 46% to 27%) and the home runs soared (2.8 HR/9 as a reliever, 1.6 HR/9 as a starter). He has me thinking that a pitcher needs a base number of strikeouts to consider rostering.
Ranger Suarez: What an amazing season, as both a starter and reliever after his average sinker velocity jumped from 91 mph to 93 mph. He had a 17.7 K-BB% as a starter and reliever. His ERA estimators are a bit higher near the mid-3.00s but still, a 3.50 ERA from a starter is acceptable. He was able to keep the home runs down with his high ground ball rate (64% as a reliever, 57% as a starter). Part of the drop was from throwing his four-seamer more (19% to 24%) with a 48 GB% versus 67% for his sinker. My one real question is if he can keep up his fastball velocity up since it dropped from 93.5 mph in August to 92.8 in September.
Zach Thompson: He was able to keep a decent ERA in both roles (3.25 as a starter, 3.18 as a reliever), but his xFIPs (4.51 and 5.42) point to major regression. Now, he was better as a starter with his walk rate down at 3.1 BB/9 versus 4.8 BB/9 as a reliever. One major issue he faced was a drop in velocity after his first six starts (92.8 mph to 91.8 mph). Also, he kept messing with his pitch mix and should be able to get something to work with his curve (15 SwStr%, 50 GB%) and change (21 SwStr%, 52 GB%) being above average. Keeping it simple, he's a nice sleeper if he could get his walk rate under 3.0 BB/9.
