This article is part of our PrizePicks MLB series.
After going 4-0 two weeks ago, we had another 2-2 article last week. That brings my season record to 52-27-2, which is really all I could've asked for at the beginning of the year. This is my first season playing PrizePicks, but it's essentially creating a parlay with player props. That's something any baseball aficionado can get used to, especially since PrizePicks has so many favorable lines. With that in mind, let's take a look at this full Tuesday slate!
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Cade Cavalli, WAS vs. MIA: More Than 15.5 Outs Recorded
The 5.11 ERA and 1.58 WHIP don't tell the whole story when it comes to Cavalli. Those numbers are actually wildly deceptive, because an eight-run stinker in Yankee Stadium unraveled what was on the verge of becoming a breakout campaign. Cavalli had a 2.82 ERA and 1.34 WHIP through his first four starts while posting a 4.05 xERA.
A four-start sample size is tiny, but we can't overlook his form at home. Cavalli hasn't allowed a run across 11.1 innings in his two starts in Washington, with the most recent happening against a nightmarish Philly lineup. Miami is nowhere near that, ranked in the bottom 10 in runs scored, OPS and xwOBA since the start of last season.
Bryan Woo/Drew Rasmussen, TB vs. SEA: No Runs in the First Inning (NRFI)
This is my first time offering an NRFI pick, but this feels like a game where we might have no runs in almost every inning. The simple fact is, these are two of the best base-limiters in baseball, with Woo and Rasmussen posting some of the best peripherals throughout their careers. That's why we're looking at a 7.5-run total, but let's discuss these arms.
Woo has completed at least 5.2 innings in all 26 starts en route to a 2.90 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. That's actually above his 2.89 ERA and 0.90 WHIP last year, limiting damage better than almost any pitcher in baseball. Rasmussen is one of the only others who can match that, maintaining a 2.64 ERA and 0.98 WHIP this year. That's not far behind his 2.86 career ERA and 1.06 WHIP, which might lead to a scoreless game going into the closing innings.
Heliot Ramos, SF at COL: More Than 2.5 Hits+Runs+RBI (vs. Kyle Freeland)
The Giants are the highest-projected offense at nearly seven runs, but that total still might be too low. Every variable is in San Fran's favor, but the matchup is the most impactful one. The Rockies rank dead-last in ERA and WHIP, while Freeland has a 5.28 ERA and 1.51 WHIP. That's terrifying in the best hitter's park in baseball, especially since San Fran has at least 12 runs in three of their last five outings!
The surge from this San Fran lineup is no surprise with the way Rafael Devers and Willy Adames are swinging their bats, but Ramos has been their most reliable guy all season. The outfielder has a .269 AVG and .770 OPS since the start of last year. That has him in the heart of the Giants' lineup, which is the most impactful variable when clearing this prop. Ramos also has a .358 OBP, .531 SLG, and .889 OPS with the platoon advantage in his favor over the last three years!
Tyler Soderstrom, ATH at STL: More Than 6.5 Fantasy Score: (vs. Miles Mikolas)
The A's have quietly been a talented lineup, and Soderstrom is one of the major surprises. Despite a midseason swoon, Soderstrom has a .364 OBP and .920 OPS since July 6. That's 47 games of raking, with Soderstrom sporting a .360 OBP and .860 OPS against right-handers this season. The sensational splits are hard to beat when looking at Mikolas, maintaning a 5.04 ERA and 1.35 WHIP this season. Those are sadly some of his better numbers over recent years, posting a 5.35 ERA last year.
