MLB Points Leagues: Finding a Pitching Edge Late in Matchups

MLB Points Leagues: Finding a Pitching Edge Late in Matchups

Understanding player skills and valuations is a key part of any fantasy game, but so is understanding the rules and how to exploit the setup of the league. Most points formats are weekly head-to-head matchups. At the beginning of the season, it may not be worth altering your roster significantly to chase a win in a particular week, but we're reaching the point in the fantasy year where every matchup is likely vital to reaching the playoffs, or in the fight for seeding.

With that in mind, we'll dedicate this article to looking at some of the edges available in many league setups to earn victories in close matchups. The focus will be on pitching and will aim to avoid more common strategies (two-start pitchers, stream against weak opponents, SP/RP eligibility, etc.) and will also provide some examples and potential pickups. Most of these players can be streamed in the short term and then immediately dropped.

Bulk Relievers

Using an opener to begin games has gone from a trend among the "smart teams" to a move made out of necessity by most. The chances of hitting on a player replicating Ryan Yarbrough's success from 2018 and 2019 are incredibly small, but there are still some players in comparable roles. There are several benefits to bulk relievers that mirror SP/RP eligible pitchers in many ways. These players will be RP eligible in leagues that have more stringent roster requirements, and they'll provide volume that most other RP-eligible players cannot match.

Understanding player skills and valuations is a key part of any fantasy game, but so is understanding the rules and how to exploit the setup of the league. Most points formats are weekly head-to-head matchups. At the beginning of the season, it may not be worth altering your roster significantly to chase a win in a particular week, but we're reaching the point in the fantasy year where every matchup is likely vital to reaching the playoffs, or in the fight for seeding.

With that in mind, we'll dedicate this article to looking at some of the edges available in many league setups to earn victories in close matchups. The focus will be on pitching and will aim to avoid more common strategies (two-start pitchers, stream against weak opponents, SP/RP eligibility, etc.) and will also provide some examples and potential pickups. Most of these players can be streamed in the short term and then immediately dropped.

Bulk Relievers

Using an opener to begin games has gone from a trend among the "smart teams" to a move made out of necessity by most. The chances of hitting on a player replicating Ryan Yarbrough's success from 2018 and 2019 are incredibly small, but there are still some players in comparable roles. There are several benefits to bulk relievers that mirror SP/RP eligible pitchers in many ways. These players will be RP eligible in leagues that have more stringent roster requirements, and they'll provide volume that most other RP-eligible players cannot match. The key difference is that these players will provide that volume advantage without counting against a start cap (if applicable in your league). Finally, they are likely to be rostered at a very low rate.  

In the last 30 days, there are a few pitchers that have regularly worked multiple innings in their appearances:

Luis Ortiz

The Pirates are currently running a four-man rotation with both Martin Perez (groin) and Quinn Priester (lat) sidelined. That has left Ortiz to cover a lot of innings following an opener every fifth day. In three June appearances, he's worked 12.1 combined frames and allowed one earned run while maintaining a 9:1 K:BB. He's also picked up a win and a save. Even once Pittsburgh has five healthy starters, Ortiz could continue to see this type of usage in bullpen games to give Jared Jones and Paul Skenes extra rest.

Bryse Wilson

The narrative for Wilson is the same as Ortiz. He's been pushed into an expanded role due to injuries in the Milwaukee rotation, and most recently that has translated into him working as a swingman. His results have been mostly poor (5.47 ERA, 19: 8 K:BB in 24.2 innings across his last five appearances) as he flips between traditional starts and bulk relief, but he has picked up a pair of wins. That will be his primary appeal.

Keegan Akin

Akin has surrendered some crooked numbers this season, but he's been stretched out for longer appearances of late and has performed well in the role. Specifically, in each of his last five appearances, Akin has recorded more than three outs and has maintained a 2.61 ERA and 0.87 WHIP to go along with a 9:3 K:BB. Team context matters here as well, as Akin is another candidate to earn wins.

Pedro Avila

Avila is a bit different than the rest of pitchers mentioned in this section. Only five of his 19 appearances have come when his team (he's split the year between the Padres and Guardians) has the lead, so his win potential is minimal. However, his skills have been excellent, highlighted by a 27 K% and 18.2 K-BB%. Avila has gotten more than three outs in 11 of his 15 appearances since being picked up by Cleveland, and he's recorded multiple strikeouts on 10 occasions.

Pitchers That Earn Holds

This isn't exactly sneaky, and is limited to leagues that reward holds. Nevertheless, it's included here because the stat is plentiful, and there should be a lot of pitchers available in your league that rack up holds. In the last 30 days, six pitchers have seven holds and 19 pitchers have at least five. Some of the best of that group include:

Jeremiah Estrada (20 percent rostered CBS, 21 percent Yahoo)

Estrada not only operates as one of the Padres' top setup men, but he also has excellent skills (42.3 K%).

Bryan Abreu (15 percent CBS)

Both Ryan Pressly and Josh Hader have been underwhelming for Houston this season, but Abreu has gotten it done. He leads the team in holds by a wide margin with 16 – no other pitcher on the team has more than eight – and also has a 33 K%.  

Fernando Cruz (nine percent CBS)

Cruz is another strikeout artist, as his season-long rate currently sits at 41 percent. His control has been very shaky at points this season, but he has the added intrigue of potentially being a speculative source of saves due to the inconsistency of Alexis Diaz.

Also Consider: Hunter Harvey , Ryan Walker , Colin Holderman , Yennier Cano , Griffin Jax

Pitchers Likely To Take the Mound

Sometimes, simplicity is the key to success. If you need a player to pitch in the final two games of a matchup, making sure they are likely to be available is important. A pitcher that has already appeared in several games that week isn't likely to appear when needed for your fantasy roster.

Taking that one step further, some relievers are relied upon heavily by their teams. In the last 30 days, nine pitchers have made at least 14 appearances (one made 15). To state the obvious, heavily used pitchers are more likely to appear in games. A few interesting names to consider among the more recent leaders in appearances, or those leading across the entire season, include:

John Brebbia

Brebbia seems to be finding his groove with the White Sox after a shaky start to the season. He's turned in nine consecutive scoreless appearances, also picking up three holds and a save in that span. Brebbia was prioritized ahead of Michael Kopech for a save Tuesday, so he's another good speculative source of saves in deeper formats. As for the volume side of things, he's the only pitcher to have appeared in 15 games across the last 30 days.

Dylan Floro

Floro is a relatively well-known name, as he has 32 career saves from his time with the Marlins. Now with the Nationals, he's not likely to see save opportunities in Washington given the strong back end of the team's bullpen, but he's among the league leaders in appearances this season. He's also maintained a 1.57 ERA and 1.02 WHIP, so he has been effective.

Ryne Stanek (20 percent CBS)

Stanek is a name that continuously appears as a leader in a lot of the different statistics mentioned. He has a combined 18 saves and holds and has appeared in 32 games this year. That combination makes him under-rostered, and he is one of the few players on this list I'd consider holding for more than just streaming.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Dan Marcus
Dan started covering fantasy sports in 2015, joining Rotowire in 2018. In addition to Rotowire, Dan has written for Baseball HQ and Rotoballer.
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