MLB ALCS Game 1 Best Bets: Expert MLB Picks for Monday, October 14

MLB ALCS Game 1 Best Bets: Expert MLB Picks for Monday, October 14

This article is part of our MLB Picks series.

MLB Best Bets Today: New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians

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New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians

The New York Yankees take on the Cleveland Guardians in the first game of this seven-game American League Championship Series (ALCS). The Yankees beat the Royals 3-1 in the American League Division Series (ALDS) to advance to this game while the Guardians beat the Tigers in five games to advance to this point. The Yankees and Guardians were the two best teams in the American League in the regular season, earning first-round byes. They have played like the two best teams in the American League playoffs as well. The Guardians beat the Tigers in five games but they went about it the hard way. The Tigers had a 2-1 lead in the series with a game to play in Detroit left. The Tigers had a 3-2 lead late in the game before David Fry hit a two-run home run to take the lead for the Guardians, and they never looked back. They forced a Game 5 in Cleveland and something similar happened in that game. The Tigers were up 1-0 in the fifth inning before the Guardians got to Cy Young frontrunner Tarik Skubal. They scored five runs off him in the inning to take the lead and they never looked back.

The Yankees had a bit less stress on their way to this ALCS. They split the first two games with the Royals at home and then went on the road to Kansas City. They won the first game there to go up 2-1 and then ace Gerrit Cole pitched Game 4 to close it out. He pitched exactly how you would expect and dominated that game. He led his team to the win and the Yankees ended up advancing to the ALCS without the stress of a Game 5. Now these two teams will battle for the right to represent the American League in the World Series.

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Carlos Rodon is starting for the Yankees. He had a very good regular season. He was very tough to hit but had a few struggles at points in the season. He was very consistent other than that. Alex Cobb had a very different regular season. He only made three starts, so he was dealing with injuries all season long. He struggled in his postseason start, too, and I highly doubt he goes very deep in this game. Rodon is making his second postseason start as well and had an interesting first start. He struck out the side in the first inning but struggled after that. He ended up getting pulled pretty early in the only game the Yankees lost to the Royals in the ALDS.

I think we could end up seeing a lot of bullpen from both sides in this game, especially since both bullpens are rested with off days before this game. Both bullpens have been very good so far, so I think once the bullpens are in, there won't be too many more runs to be had. These lineups on both sides have been very hit-or-miss so far this postseason. The Yankees haven't scored too many runs overall, but they have scored when needed to, which is what matters the most. The Guardians' lineup went through a 20-inning stretch where they didn't score a single run. That said, they bounced back for four runs in Game 4 and then seven runs in Game 5 against Skubal to win their ALDS matchup. I think the Guardians can keep up in this series but likely behind their best starters. Rodon wasn't great in his first postseason start but I think the Yankees can come out and win Game 1.

Best MLB Bet Today

Yankees ML (-170 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
John Bollman
I am a data scientist and baseball analyst who grew up in Bethesda, Maryland before I moved to South Florida about five years ago. I went to Tulane University in New Orleans for both undergraduate and graduate school, and worked for the Tulane Baseball team as a Quantitative Analyst while working towards my Masters degree in Biostatistics and Data Science. I worked for the Toronto Blue Jays in their Player Development and High Performance departments out of graduate school and I am the founder and owner of my company Baseball with Bollman.
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