Mound Musings: The Trade Winds Are Gently Blowing

It's that time of year when uniforms (and fortunes) can change for quite a few pitchers. While not hurricane force, there has been a noticeable breeze blowing over the past few days. Teams often play a waiting game, hoping to land the best arm(s) available, but once a big name or two finds a new home, things can quickly pick up. Yes, the trade winds have already been blowing, albeit not with any major storm warnings yet, and it's again time to see who has gone where, what it means, and what other deals might be on the horizon. There's still time on the clock, so maybe we can speculate on who might still be in play. But let's start by seeing how changes in latitudes might impact the arms involved so far.

Genesis Cabrera to Toronto:

The first few moves of the trading season seem rather ho-hum at first glance, and Cabrera landing with Toronto could certainly fit that description. However, a lot of readers shop for holds, and I think we may have hit the jackpot. A couple years ago I loved this guy, but this season he has seemed flat — until the move. I watched his most recent outing, and he was electric again, with his fastball velocity up a couple ticks and showing good movement. He's not likely to replace Jordan Romano, but what a complement. Don't wait. Get him now.

Shintaro Fujinami to Baltimore:

It should be noted that he actually arrived in the United States with some serious expectations. He hasn't lived up to those, at least not yet. In Japan, he was known for nasty stuff going every which direction, and that hasn't really changed much.  With Oakland and now a couple appearances with the Orioles, he has compiled 53 innings with an 8.49 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP (including 32 walks).

The 29-year-old Fujinami has split his time between starting and relieving, but his time in the bullpen has been considerably better, and that's where he's most likely to spend his time in Baltimore. He has late-inning raw skills (his fastball can touch triple digits, and he has 56 strikeouts in those 53 innings despite backing off a bit while trying to throw strikes). He's not likely to displace Felix Bautista as the closer, but if they can get him locked in, he could be a significant part of the pen as a set-up guy.

Pierce Johnson and Taylor Hearn to Atlanta:

Atlanta is sending a message that they intend to be the best team in baseball all the way to the World Series. For weeks I have generally avoided pitching matchups against the team's overwhelming lineup, and they have a pretty solid starting rotation. The only weakness is perhaps the bullpen. Raisel Iglesias is adequate as the closer, but injuries have taken their toll. Kirby Yates is a key set-up arm, but A.J. Minter, Nick Anderson, Jesse Chavez and Dylan Lee have all spent time on the injured list.

And so, the bolstering begins. At age 32, Johnson has compiled a lackluster 6.00 ERA with a 1.85 WHIP this year. Too many baserunners and too many home runs, perhaps at least partially attributable to Coors Field, but there have been flashes of the good Johnson too, as he has also logged 13 saves and has a past history of success. Atlanta realistically hopes that history repeats. The Braves do have a history of collecting forgotten talent and getting the most from them. Southpaw Hearn also fits the profile. At his best, he is much better than the 10.29 ERA he posted with Texas. They also just called up a solid prospect in Daysbel Hernandez, and don't be surprised if they try to bring in another quick turn reclamation project.

Jorge Lopez to Miami and Dylan Floro to Minnesota:

This was late breaking news, just before deadline for this week's column, and it appears to be a swap of potential which has disappointed. Lopez has the higher upside, and he logged 23 saves last season, but after losing out to Jhoan Duran for the ninth inning, he has been in something of a funk. He hasn't been totally horrible, but his command in and out of the zone comes and goes. I'm sure the Marlins would like to see him snap out of it and challenge for the closer's gig. Don't be surprised if it happens! Floro has long been and likely remains a "tweener" filling in for everything from long relief to closing.

And now for some serious fun … speculation!

LATE BREAKING UPDATE: After the article was submitted, Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated reported that the Angels were no longer considering trading Ohtani. Below is what I included in the article, and I am inclined to believe the announcement was both a semi-withdrawal (no player is completely off the block — make the offer sweet enough and he's gone) AND something of a ploy to elicit higher offers. We'll see.

Our first stop, as promised, is the beautiful city of Anaheim, California. Arguably the hottest commodity of this year's deadline day is Shohei Ohtani, albeit the biggest price tag too, and the Angels have been winning to further complicate things. The team is actually playing better, but that probably won't endure, and even if it does, they aren't likely catch the Rangers or Astros, and the Mariners still have a run in the cards, so a deal involving Ohtani is their best option. The good news is, with so many contenders being desperate, they should be able to bring in a load of top-shelf talent. That makes it hard to predict a landing spot, but you know me, I'm game. Here we go: I think Seattle (even though Ohtani has said he prefers warm weather) could be a good fit for him. Trading within the division understandably makes teams skittish, but you just have to make the deal big enough so nobody notices (talk about blockbuster, this would be it). The Seattle of Ichiro is just a natural fit, and the Mariners have the depth in their system to meet the price.

Much of my predicted landing spot is a long-term picture. The Mariners can absolutely see the 29-year-old superstar-plus in their uniform for many years, and their fanbase is clearly receptive to the biggest talent in the history of baseball (yep, I said it) calling Seattle home. What will it take? I'm guessing either Bryce Miller or Bryan Woo to start. Then I'll add in some special relief in the person of Andres Munoz. The M's also have some good fit position players to talk about. I think Jarred Kelenic could use a change of scenery, and a couple of prized prospects like catcher Harry Ford and a corner infielder, Tyler Locklear, who has really caught my eye. That's probably more than a rental package to be sure, but Seattle does it if they believe they can sign Ohtani for life.

Was that one big enough? Moving on to Queens, New York, home of the Mets, I don't see a World Series being the end result of this season. They brought in a lot of big-name players including Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer hoping for a big season, but it never really came together. Part of the plan was the anticipated performance of a very high-profile starting rotation, but the silver-haired duo couldn't make it happen. I'm sure they would like to move those huge contracts, and someone will pay the price, especially for Verlander. Can you imagine what he would mean to a locker room loaded with young pitching talent? Despite a so-so regular season to date, Scherzer is a proven big game arm so I think he's a very real possibility too.

Next, let's make a stop in Chicago. Baseball's annual underachievers are there again, buried in a weaker division, 12.5 games out of first place. There has been a lot of chatter regarding whether the White Sox will be sellers, buyers or somewhere in between. Hey, they are out of the playoff hunt despite a good roster (on paper). Their biggest pitching trading chips are Dylan Cease, Lance Lynn and Lucas Giolito (editor's note: Giolito has since been traded to the Angels). Cease and Lynn have both been major disappointments, but the price tag will be high, especially for Cease who has a top 10 or better ceiling. It's probably a longshot, but this team needs an attitude adjustment, and I could see all three (and others) changing uniforms. The Rays have been rumored to be in discussions with the Sox.

Finally, I want to look at a couple potentially major buyers. The Baltimore Orioles and the Cincinnati Reds have all the pieces to take a shot, almost. Both teams are somewhat surprising, and both have experienced an infusion of incredible young talent, but a little more pitching is on the menu. Jack Flaherty and Marcus Stroman both reside in the NL Central with the Reds, but I could see one of them landing in Baltimore. They have pretty much exhausted their internal options with marginal success, and the lack of competent back of the rotation arms is putting a lot of stress on their very deep and solid bullpen. They desperately need at least one more starting pitcher to provide solid innings, and I think one top-shelf arm could actually make them the favorites to represent the American League in the World Series. I don't see them bypassing that chance, and almost anyone they add probably enjoys a big fantasy boost.

It's still early, so the possibilities are virtually endless

At deadline for this article, there are still plenty of trade rumors circulating. One of the most prominent starting pitchers, the Cubs' Kyle Hendricks, has been mentioned frequently as a possible target for several contenders. Detroit's Eduardo Rodriguez and Michael Lorenzen have both been linked to potential deals, and even though the Red Sox are still theoretically in the hunt for a playoff spot, James Paxton and Nick Pivetta have been talked about as under the radar possibilities. Besides the teams already mentioned, there are several more, notably the Yankees, Rangers and Diamondbacks, who all need starting pitching, so this may be shaping up as a seller's market.

Moving on, bullpen arms are considered a bit more plentiful, and several "closers" are being talked about, including Kenley Jansen (Red Sox), David Robertson (Mets), Scott Barlow (Royals), Trevor May (A's), Kyle Finnegan (Nationals) and Kendall Graveman (White Sox). I would also include Pirates' closer David Bednar on this list, but he has three years remaining on a very team-friendly contract making him pretty unlikely to move. That's a considerable number of potential saves, and obviously, if any of these arms move there could be significant impact on that category.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings

• They just keep falling. Fantasy baseball is becoming an exercise in predicting the last man standing after each wave of injuries. Cleveland moved Shane Bieber (elbow) to the 60-day-injured list earlier this week, meaning he's going to be out until at least mid-September, which I think effectively virtually ends his 2023 fantasy season.
• Brandon Woodruff says, "Wait, I'll be back." Of course, he has already missed over four months with a shoulder strain sustained in his second 2023 start. I had him down for big things this season, but I guess we'll set the great expectations aside until next year. Best case scenario is probably a mid-August return.
• If the Twins make a big run into the playoffs, Kenta Maeda will likely be a huge part of it. His ERA is inflated because of a horrendous outing in late April (just before he spent two months on the IL), but he looks sharper each time out lately. You might want to consider acquiring him if possible. The price will go up.
• Major injuries are not the exclusive domain of established veterans. Earlier this week, the Phillies' Andrew Painter underwent Tommy John surgery. He was number four on my most recent kids list (and might have been higher with better health). He's now likely out of the picture until 2025 at this point.
• I've mentioned the possible reemergence of Toronto's Jose Berrios many times in recent months, but he continues to confound. He walked eight in two starts in late May/early June, then walked two or fewer in seven consecutive starts, before walking eight combined in his last two outings. I really don't know what to say.

Endgame Odyssey

The Jays lost the services of Jordan Romano for a few days after he left his All-Star game appearance. He returned over the weekend but he looked a bit off his game. He should be okay once he gets in a little work. The Marlins rode A.J. Puk for quite a while, but he has struggled mightily of late. Puk's struggles will probably open the door for either Tanner Scott (who's been on a roll), or the newly acquired Jorge Lopez. My money is on the latter. It looks like the Cubs are relying more heavily on Adbert Alzolay in the ninth inning, so he has probably replaced Mark Leiter as the primary closer. However, Brad Boxberger is slowly progressing in his recovery from a right forearm strain and could get back into consideration. The Diamondbacks have been shuffling bullpen pieces all season, and next up for saves might be Kevin Ginkel. He's a non-descript reliever who has moved up and down the food chain for most of his career. He could give you a save or two until he cools off. I still think, barring a trade, Scott McGough is their best hope.