We have a solid slate Thursday, and there are potentially profitable PrizePicks opportunities throughout the evening portion. We highlight four of our favorites below:
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Vladimir Guerrero Jr., TOR at TB: More Than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI
Despite an 0-for-4 night Wednesday, Guerrero's season slash line still stands at an impressive .300/.392/.485. The veteran was running blistering hot before the blanking, as he'd posted a .442 average, 1.124 OPS and tiny 5.1 percent strikeout rate in his previous 13 games.
Thursday, Guerrero could get right back on track in a matchup against Shane Baz, who he's tormented to the tune of a .385 average and 1.000 OPS in 13 career plate appearances. Baz has also had considerable trouble keeping the ball in the park this season despite his impressive stuff, and he's pitched to a 6.28 ERA, 1.51 WHIP and 2.1 HR/9 across 77.1 innings at his hitter-friendly home park.
Guerrero has hit safely in 100 out of 146 games and is averaging 2.3 hits + runs + RBI per contest, making this a viable option.
Hunter Goodman, COL vs. MIA: More Than 0.5 Hits
An afternoon game at Coors is always ripe for plenty of offense, and Goodman is as good a bat on either side to utilize in an attempt to capitalize on those conditions. The Rockies slugger racked up three more hits Wednesday night, leaving him with a .280 average and .854 OPS for the season.
Goodman gets a matchup against the struggling Sandy Alcantara, who has a 3-6 record, 7.24 ERA, 1.61 WHIP and 1.2 HR/9 across 59.2 road innings. Alcantara has also allowed a .946 OPS and pitched to a 7.56 ERA across 16.2 career innings at Coors, and he's surrendered a .301 average and .367 wOBA to right-handed hitters on the road.
Goodman has hit safely in 92 of 134 games this season, and given Alcantara's body of work and the Coors environment, this is certainly a prudent way to go.
Elly De La Cruz, CIN vs. CHC: More Than 0.5 Home Runs / More Than 1.5 Total Bases
De La Cruz incredibly last went deep 42 games ago on July 31, a shocking statistic given his upside. The switch hitter is still carrying a respectable .263 average and .767 OPS for the season, however, and Thursday may afford him an opportunity to put some good wood on the ball.
Cubs starter Colin Rea has given up a .438 average and 1.471 OPS to De La Cruz in 17 career encounters, a sample where the Reds slugger has recorded a double, a triple and two homers off him. Rea has also allowed a .299 average, .376 wOBA and 1.8 HR/9 to left-handed hitters on the road, while De La Cruz owns a .288 average, .879 OPS and .373 wOBA against right-handed hitters on the road.
Home-run bets of any kind are obviously always volatile, but I'm going to go with that with one of my two props. In addition to the numbers already cited, it's also worth noting De La Cruz came into this season averaging a homer every 29.6 plate appearances in his first two seasons, and he's now gone 189 PAs without one.
Max Fried, NYY at BAL: More Than 4.5 Pitcher Strikeouts
Fried is enjoying a standout season that includes a co-career-high 17 wins, along with a 3.03 ERA and an 8.4 K/9. The veteran left-hander isn't an elite strikeout pitcher, but Fried does have some serviceable swing-and-miss stuff and 17 strikeouts in 64 career encounters with current Orioles hitters.
Fried also has at least five strikeouts in 20 of 30 starts, including a seven-K showing against these same Orioles at Yankee Stadium on June 20. Additionally, Baltimore checks in with an AL-high 34.4 percent strikeout rate against left-handers at home in the last month, further solidifying the case for this prop.
