This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
The MLB Landscape as of May 6
Even the loss of one of the best hitters in MLB, Trea Turner, can slow down the Philadelphia Phillies. Turner suffered a hamstring injury that will have him sidelined for the next six weeks, but the Phillies continue to win games. The general rule that managers follow is to win twice as many home games as you lose and then play .500 baseball on the road and your team will be in the playoffs. The Phillies are winning twice as many games as they lose no matter where they play, posting a 13-6 home and 11-5 road record combining for an MLB-best 24-11 record for the season.
The most profitable team this season has an even 17-17 record, but averaging a 148 underdog bet using the moneyline has produced a 24 percent ROI and has earned the $100 bettor an $11,420 profit. This is the Washington Nationals, who have outperformed preseason expectations and the market pricing is still catching up to their current level of play. In any MLB season, the most profitable teams are not the ones with the highest win percentages.
Be careful to presume that the top-level teams will be near certainty to win any game moving forward, especially if they are 200 or greater favorites. If a bettor loses one bet priced as a -200 favorite they have to then win two consecutive games to break even. The danger is when that bettor continues to bet the -200 or greater favorites not realizing they need to win 57 percent of those bets just to break even. Over 29 years of pro experience I have learned to focus on money dogs when betting MLB knowing I have had seasons where I hit 50 percent winners but have made significant profits by averaging a 125 or greater underdog.
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The Best Bets to Make in the
Texas Rangers vs. Oakland A's
The Oakland A's were expected to be the worst team in MLB this season, but Money Ball is proving the prognosticators wrong again. They are 17-18 for the season and start a four-game series Monday against their AL West Divisional-rival Texas Rangers, who are 19-16 on the season. The A's are priced as 120 home underdogs with a posted total of 8.0 runs.
The A's had won eight of nine games before losing the last game of a three-game series hosting the Miami Marlins on Sunday. They have struggled at the plate, batting .215 and scoring just 3.5 runs per game for the season. But over their last seven games have batted .272 and scored an average of 6.7 RPG. They have done much better when facing a left-handed starter this season, batting .245 and scoring 4.4 RPG.
The Rangers trail the Seattle Mariners by a half game in the AL West Division standings and have won three of their last four and five of their last seven games. The Rangers have struggled when facing a left-handed starting pitcher, batting .218 and scoring an average of 4.1 RPG on the season.
Who Are the Starting Pitchers?
Two left-handed starting pitchers will square off in this game. The A's will give the ball to Alex Wood, who has posted a 1-2 record with a 6.32 ERA and a 1.979 WHIP in seven starts, including 29 strikeouts spanning 31.1 innings of work. The Rangers will have Andrew Heaney on the hill, who is 0-4 in six starts with a 5.10 ERA and a 1.100 WHIP, including 26 strikeouts spanning 30 innings of work.
Wood is not going to scare anyone in the Rangers lineup and his job is to get ahead in the count and get as many ground ball outs as possible. He has allowed 92.1 MPH average exit velocity, 48 percent hard-hit percentage, an expected weighted on-base percentage of .382, and is striking out only 19 percent of the batters he's faced. The good news and one of the reasons I like the A's to win this game is their bullpen has been quite good all season.
The A's bullpen has posted an 8-3 record with a 3.04 ERA and 1.136 WHIP, including 133 strikeouts spanning 130.1 innings of work. Equally impressive is they have allowed only eight home runs so far this season. Wood will go as far as possible in this game knowing the Rangers have struggled against left-handed starters and can pitch to contact by pounding the strike zone.
Heaney has had trouble locating his pitches and misses far too often in the hitter's power zones. He has allowed a terrible 20-degree launch angle, 92 mph exit velocity, 46 percent hard-hit percentage and has struck out just 20 percent of the batters faced on the season. His pitches are in the strikeout zone 52 percent of the time and batters swing 72 percent of the time on those pitches. So, the A's batters will look to attack his first-pitch offering if it is middle-in within the strike zone.
The MLB Betting Algorithm of the Day
The following MLB betting algorithm has produced a 70-50 record averaging a 107-underdog bet using the moneyline, resulting in a highly profitable 18 percent ROI and earning the Dime Bettor a $27,880 profit spanning the past five seasons. The requirements are:
· Bet on home teams priced between a -125-favorite and a 125-underdog.
· The home team is starting a pitcher than averages fewer than five innings per start.
· The home team is scoring an average of 3.75 or fewer runs per game.
If the game is the first game of a series these home teams have produced a highly profitable 22-15 record averaging a 111-underdog bet resulting in a 22 percent ROI and making the Dime Bettor a $9,530 profit over the past five seasons.
The Player Prop Bets for May 6
- Bet the Phillies Zack Wheeler Over 7.5 strikeouts priced at +100.
- In 12 of 25 day starts made with the Phillies he has recorded 8.0 or more Ks.
- Bet the A's Darell Hernaiz to get a hit priced at -145.
- Bet the A's Tyler Nevin Over 1.5 total bases priced at +150
